The rise of Bolsonaro is a new blow for liberal democracy

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What was unthinkable almost came true on Sunday. Jair Bolsonaro, A far-right politician, sometimes compared to President Trump, almost won the absolute majority of votes in the first round of the Brazilian presidential election. If he had succeeded, he would have won the presidency. Instead, he is the undisputed favorite of the second round scheduled for October 28th.

Not so long ago, Bolsonaro, a 63-year-old paratrooper, was a marginal figure who had little hope of winning power in Brasilia. Even in the weeks leading up to Sunday's vote, the experts suggested that the country's political process would hold back its rise. A second round would see voters rally behind a more traditional challenger; a national legislature stacked with opponents would force Bolsonaro to moderate his uncompromising positions.

But an uprising in politics angry at the Bolsonaro establishment also shocked the Brazilian Congress, its once-obscure social-liberal party being in second place of the left-wing labor party of imprisoned former president Lula Inácio da Silva. A host of seasoned politicians – two-thirds of the incumbents – have been swept away, while a new generation featuring celebrities, YouTubers, is about to enter the country's lower house.

The appointed successor of Lula, the former mayor of Sao Paulo, Fernando Haddad, will struggle to narrow the gap that separates him from Bolsonaro before the second round. Proponents of the leader plan to let him take the reins with the unwavering support of many centrist and right-wing parties, as well as many legislative backers. "What emerges from this election is a more pro-Bolsonaro reform conference," Julian Griebeler, political analyst at Barral M. Jorge told Bloomberg News.

Bolsonaro arrived at this moment after several years of incendiary policy. As we have already explained, he is known for his acts of fanaticism, his rants against minorities, immigrants, women and LGBT Brazilians. He stood as the law and order candidate, declaring that he would give the police a greater license to kill criminals with impunity and would facilitate the acquisition by Brazilians of their own firearms. As an evangelical Christian, he wooed religious voters and worshiped conservative warriors. And he has benefited from widespread anger against the country's political class, which is engulfed in a vast corruption scandal.

"I voted for Bolsonaro because I was fed up with politicians," said my colleagues Maria Aparecida de Oliveira, a 63-year-old housekeeper who was voting in an upper middle-class neighborhood in Sao Paulo. Paulo. "Even though he's a little crazy, someone has to make a change."

"Brazil 2018 is the epic story of an institution that did not listen, who ignored the issues that most concerned voters (ie crime and corruption) and did not listen. did not take the insurgents seriously, " tweeted Brian Winter, editor of Americas Quarterly. "It's a global story, but particularly pronounced here."

The consequences of Bolsonaro's success are enormous – and, for many observers, gloomy. Bolsonaro spoke nostalgically of decades in which Brazil was ruled by a deadly dictatorship right and paid tribute to former army officers involved in the torture of leftist political prisoners. He once said that the greatest failure of the dictatorship was not to kill more of them.

A leading Mexican cartoonist reacted severely to the results of the Brazilian elections on Monday:

The fact that a critical mass of Brazilians supports Bolsonaro nevertheless reflects the country's polarized and venomous political climate, which has become increasingly apparent in democracies around the world. "This is a global event, the last chapter of an ongoing story about the destruction of liberal norms and the rise of populism," wrote Financial Times columnist Gideon Rachman.

"If we want to take seriously Bolsonaro's remarks during the campaign, I believe that democracy in Brazil is in peril," said Lilia Schwarcz, a well-known historian in Brazil, at The New York Times. She added, "We used to think that the rights won were bound duties. I concluded that we were stupid. We must continue to fight for them.

For many Brazilians, Haddad, the opponent of Bolsonaro, seems unlikely to lead this fight. Its left-wing labor party, particularly under Lula's extremely popular administration, presided over a huge economic boom that lifted millions of Brazilians out of poverty. But personalities of his leadership were later involved, along with most Brazilian institutions, in the country's endemic transplant.

"I think Bolsonaro will continue to do what he does. I do not think he has to change much, "said Glauco Peres, a political scientist at Sao Paolo University. "He will continue to hammer this idea of ​​fear … that the [Workers’ Party] represents a step backward in the corruption scandals and the presence of criminals in the government ".

Unlike Lula, larger than life, who remains an icon on the left, Haddad "is a shy and pragmatic economist," wrote my colleagues Anthony Faiola and Marina Lopes. They noted that "he tried to reassure investors that he would not pursue radical left-wing politics, but many still fear that he will not pass the difficult reforms deemed necessary." to avoid another economic crisis in the country. "

There is no doubt about his counterpart. "Bolsonaro is a strange phenomenon," Lucas Post of Aragao, director of Arko Advice, a political risk management company in Brasilia, told La Poste. "There is no precedent in Brazil. Even some of Lula's voters are turning to him. It happened because Brazil likes this idea of ​​a savior, a hero. And Bolsonaro now represents this savior image as much as Lula. "

But his critics warn that such an image is only a mirage. "Brazilians can adopt the politics of division and the seductive appeal of simplistic solutions, following the path of populist authoritarians in Hungary, Poland and the Philippines," wrote Robert Muggah, co-founder of a group of reflection based in Rio de Janeiro. "If not, they can preserve and renew their young democracy."

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