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DALLAS – The energy and enthusiasm behind Representative Beto O'Rourke's (D-Texas) Senate campaign has implications for polling in a dark red Texas, giving Democrats a much needed shake in the battle for seats in the House.
While O'Rourke could end up losing against GOP Sen. Ted Cruz
Rafael (Ted) Edward Cruz Countdown to the elections: donations from small donors explode | Russian woman accused of meddling mid-term | Remember the Senate debate in North Dakota | O & # 39; Rourke gives the "no definitive" to 2020 | Political voters hope Latino voters adopt Arizona's blue ballot: "The problem is fundamental" for Texas Dems, according to political analysts, the Houston Chronicle supports Beto O. Rourke in the race for Senate of Texas PLUShe could help Democrats in the House if his candidacy to the Senate greatly increased participation – especially in three districts run by representatives of the Popular Party. Pete Sessions
Countdown to Peter Anderson's sessions: O 'Rourke goes on the attack | Remember the second heated debate in the Texas Senate | Heitkamp apologizes for misidentifying victims of abuse | Trump Jr. rallies challenger Manchin | Rick Scott leaves the field open to deal with the damage caused by the hurricane A group of credit unions will spend 0.8 million euros to finance countdowns for demobilized and democratic supporters: Cruz and O & Rourke are fighting at a turning point | Ryan on the run for vulnerable Republicans | Poll shows Biden topping Dem 2020 | Senate debate of Arizona tonight MORE, John Culberson
John Abney CulbersonKavanaugh becomes a new mid-point flash point, defined by anger. Countdown to the elections: numerous fundraisers in struggle for the Senate | Haley resigns by surprise says she will support Trump in 2020 | Sanders in mid-term track | Collins becomes the first target of the Dem | Senate Debates On Night Health Care In Indiana Senate – Presented By The Coalition For Affordable Prescription Drugs – Ryan Blastes Medicare | The Senate refrains from forcing voters to vote on spam plans | Ads touch Collins about Kavanaugh vote PLUS and Will Hurd
Countdown to William Ballard HurdElection: Dems dominated the GOP in the final stage | 2018 mid-term already the most expensive in history | What to watch in the second debate Cruz-O 'Rourke | Trump raises 0M for reelection | Why Democrats fear Avenatti's approach Democrats struggle to mobilize Latin American voters mid-term Voter countdown: Florida candidates face a new test as a result A hurricane | GOP optimistic about widening Senate majority | High-level dems begin to head to Iowa | Bloomberg joins Dems | Trump heads for the Pennsylvania Rally PLUSwho are all fighting for their political life.
The Democrats have not won a race in Texas since 1994, but O 'Rourke, 46, nurtured the hope of the Liberals to defeat Cruz, 47, by mass rallies, a lifting of Record funds and a commitment with young voters – a phenomenon that some call "Betomania."
O 'Rourke is stirring up enthusiasm that no other Democratic nominee, including government governor candidate Lupe Valdez, has been able to generate in Texas.
"It creates an activity and interest that is very difficult to generate solely from a negative voting activity," said Matt Angle, an experienced Texas Democratic strategist and director of the Lone Star Project.
The excitement comes even as O & # 39; Rourke himself might not be able to defeat the conservative brandon. Although Mr. O. Rourke has collected a record $ 38 million during the third quarter of fundraising, recent polls have shown that Cruz has consistently taken the lead in the race to scale of the state.
But increased participation may be enough to tip the scales in the smaller districts of the House, according to strategists.
Mary Beth Rogers, who was the campaign director for the late Ann Richards, the last Democratic governor of Texas, said O'Rourke should be about 5-6 points better than the 2016 Democratic presidential candidate. Hillary Clinton
Hillary Diane Rodham ClintonRepublicans vouch for Coffman to invest in Miami: Katy Perry congratulates Taylor Swift for plunging into politics Countdown to elections: donations from small donors explode | Russian woman accused of meddling mid-term | Remember the Senate debate in North Dakota | O & # 39; Rourke gives the "no definitive" to 2020 | Democrats hope Latino voters will turn blue in Arizona PLUS made in some parts of the state to give a boost to some of the competitive races of the House.
Other Democrats argue that some voters who traditionally vote with a Republican vote may be tempted to vote for O. Rourke – and, in doing so, could take a second look at other Democrats. At the same time, Democrats could choose the friendly vote option proposed by the party that will be eliminated after the November elections.
The party is particularly pleased with their prospects in three districts that voted for Clinton in 2016 but also supported their Republican MPs.
These races in the House also have another common denominator: Democrats in the running are all novice candidates who have surpassed their respective GOP challengers by at least a million dollars in the last quarter of fundraising.
Democrats can still reach the magic number of 23 seats for the majority in the House without overthrowing seats in Texas. But many see these districts as indicators that could serve as a barometer for the national political environment and the prospects for a blue wave.
Two of these seats, currently occupied by Culberson and Sessions, are primarily suburban areas, including neighborhoods in major cities where demographics have evolved considerably over the years.
The Culberson District in the Houston area has a growing Hispanic population, while the Dallas District north of Sessions has both a large Hispanic and African-American population.
Culberson runs against Democratic Lizzie lawyer Pannill Fletcher, while Colin Allred, a civil rights lawyer and former NFL player who worked for the Obama administration, challenges Sessions, the chairman of the powerful regulatory committee of the House, which did not even confront a Democratic opponent. in 2016.
Recent New York Times / Siena polls show that the two races are at a dead end, with GOP holders holding thin leads that fall within the margin of error.
Hurd also represents an expansive swing district, but unlike the other two races, he seems better placed to hold a third term in a district occupied by Democrats until 2014.
The predominantly Hispanic district stretches 1,000 km along the US-Mexico border from El Paso to San Antonio, a vast territory comprising cities and rural areas, making it more difficult for Democrats.
Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones, a former Air Force intelligence officer, still receives a lot of help from the National Party and she would go down in history as the first Filipino American woman elected to Congress if she were to win .
But Jones is 15 points behind Hurd, according to a poll in the New York Times in Siena earlier this month.
Some Democrats even think O'Rourke's energy could help long-haul President Trump
Donald John TrumpCorker: The United States Should Determine The Responsibility Of The Death Of A Saudi Journalist Five Conclusions To Be Withheld From The Heller-Rosen Hollywood Debate In Nevada A Senator Calls For US Action After An Explanation "absurd" in Arabia easily transported to outside Austin, where Democrats sent powerful opponents.
GOP Rep. John Carter
John Rice CarterCook's political report moves 5 GOP-held seats to Dems The Texas House candidate shows his tattoos in a new announcement Dems aims a smaller magic number for the majority in the House MOREThe race against Democrat MJ Hegar drew national attention when Hegar's publicity about his military service became viral.
Another example is the open siege race for the retired retired GOP representative. Lamar Smith
Lamar Seeligson SmithOpening Night: A Watchdog Will Investigate EPAs After Hurricane Harvey Passes | Panel Calls on GAO to Expand Investigation into Sexual Harassment in Science | Report on new threats to our elections should serve as an alarm bells to the public and policy makers Overnight Energy: Watchdog blames EPA for reducing security costs | Court calls for enforcement order for chemical factory rule | An IG office investigates a study of pollution by trucksThe seat Democrat Joseph Kopser, another veteran, faces Republican Chip Roy, a former assistant to Cruz.
But Republicans have warned against waiting for a blue wave inspired by O 'Rourke. They expressed confidence in the possibility of retaining the three seats of the House because of the strength of the economy and conservative energy sparked by the confirmation of justice by the Supreme Court. Brett Kavanaugh
Brett Michael KavanaughPoll: Palin, unpopular in Alaska, following an attack on Chris Wallace of Murkowski Fox News: "A foreword," Dems said behind a caravan of migrants arrested in New York for threatening to kill senators who supported Kavanaugh PLUS – the same factors helping Cruz in all the state.
They also predict that minority voters will not be as motivated to vote for Democrats because of the low unemployment rate of Hispanics and African Americans in Texas.
"They did not create the cause of a wave here or at the national level," said George Seay, former chairman of Sen's Texas board. Marco Rubio
Marco Antonio RubioMeghan McCain considers the Russian attacks against his father as the "greatest compliment" for his family The Memo: The Saudi storm darkens for Trump GOP leaders hesitant to challenge Trump in Saudi Arabia MOREThe presidential campaign of (R-Fla.).
"There is so much prosperity for so many demographic groups."
In addition, Republicans have their own power over the campaign. Vice President Mike Pence
Michael (Mike) Richard PenceThe Morning's Morning – Presented by the Coalition for Affordable Prescription Drugs – Trump, Obama wants to tip states with a majority in the Senate East European Companies | Twitter shares data on influence campaigns | Dems blast Trump on China's interference claims | Saudi crisis puts Silicon Valley to the test | Apple allows customers to download their data PLUS and Donald Trump Jr.
Donald (Don) John TrumpDiscount of elections: donations from small donors explode | Russian woman accused of meddling mid-term | Remember the Senate debate in North Dakota | O & # 39; Rourke gives the "no definitive" to 2020 | Dems hopes Latin American voters turn blue in Arizona Countdown to elections: fight for Florida Senate resumes after hurricane | Cruz softens attacks ObamaCare | GOP worries that Trump will lose suburbs | Recent polls in the Senate | Rep. Dave Brat gets "total support" from Trump | The candidates for the resignation establish a record B Eric Trump: Trump Org does not have any investment in Russia or Saudi Arabia MORE campaigned and raised funds for the sessions. And the president is organizing Monday in Houston a campaign rally for Cruz, which could also help elevate some members of the House.
Ultimately, it would depend on the number of votes that O'Rourke could win among Hispanic voters, who will be particularly critical in Sessions District, Culberson and Hurd.
An increase in Hispanic participation, combined with other members such as university-educated women and moderate voters from suburbs frustrated by the president, could easily tip the balance of the hands to Democrats, said observers.
"They will need him to succeed in the Hispanic community and in the suburbs with educated white women," said Brandon Rottinghaus, a professor of political science at the University of Houston. "Democrats can get better results than expected if they manage to get those people out."
Such a coalition could spell the death knell for the Republicans, even if it is not enough to allow O 'Rourke to impose on Cruz.
"If O'Rourke manages to bring the Democrats to the polls, he will also help the Democratic candidates in Congress," said Brendan Steinhauser, a GOP strategist who ran Sen. John Cornyn
John Cornyn: Five Cruz's Conclusions and Debate on the Debate O 'Rourke's Live Coverage: Cruz Faces the Texas Debate Against O' Rourke Trump, The Conflict Between Feinstein Steps Up Before the Candidates to the Court of Appeal PLUS'S (R-Texas) 2014.
"How much, I do not know … Clearly, with that kind of money and enthusiasm, it's something we all think about and prepare for."
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