[ad_1]
On October 28, Brazilians go to the polls for the second round of presidential elections, to decide whether the wave of institutions opposing elections and plebiscites around the world should also affect Brazil, the largest democracy and regional power of Latin America. In the first round of presidential elections on October 7, a Brazilian congressman and former army captain campaigning on a platform for policing decimated expectations by not having to wait. not reaching the majority, which would have allowed him to pass the presidency without requiring a second round. .
The fiery right-wing populist Jair Bolsonaro – whom some commentators have called "Trump of the Tropics" – has criticized Brazilian politics with caustic, inflammatory and sometimes hateful statements while denouncing corrupt politics as usual and policies repressive street criminals have almost given free rein to too many Brazilian cities.
Nearly 50 million voters, or 46 percent of the electorate, almost won a first-round victory over Bolsonaro, a feat that no candidate for the Brazilian presidency has managed to win. over the last 20 years. Fernando Haddad of the Left Labor Party finished in second place at 29% and qualified for the second round. The leader of the Workers' Party, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has been barred from standing because of his imprisonment for corruption. Virtually no one expects Haddad to overcome Bolsonaro's huge lead in the meantime.
Candidates riding the Bolsonaro group were also successful in the elections. His small social-liberal party won 44 seats, from 8 to 52, to become the second-largest party in the 513-member lower house, which means he will have many allies in the government s & # 39; He is elected.
As a Brazilian scholar has said to Washington Post, "Brazil is now surfing on the wave of global conservatism, an anti-globalist movement around the world."
Although more opposed to the establishment than traditionally conservative, the Bolsonaro phenomenon is clearly part of a global pattern that began with Brexit and saw the surprising defeat of a peace agreement in Colombia, the rise of nationalist movements in Europe and the election of external candidates. in the United States, the Philippines and Mexico, where voters express a rejection of traditional politics and what they perceive as detached elitism.
The transition from Brazil, a country generally elected since the introduction of democracy in 1985 to moderate and dominant leaders, to a candidate who is nostalgic of the military regime, is the story of the sad decline of the existing political establishment. Only a few years ago, Brazil announced its arrival on the world stage as a leading country, after rising to conquer the global boom in commodities and having welcomed to both the FIFA World Cup in 2014 and the Summer Olympics in 2016.
Two events, however, wiped out the country's economic prospects and popular confidence in its political system. First, China's demand for primary commodities such as soybeans has declined, revealing unsolved systemic dysfunctions, and secondly, a massive corruption scandal involving the state-owned oil company Petrobras, which has resulted in the looting of billions of dollars from the public purse, has been revealed. stained almost the entire political class.
More than 200 Brazilian politicians, business leaders and companies, including Lula, have been convicted as part of the high-level corruption investigation called Operation Car Wash. The effect on public opinion has been devastating: according to Gallup, only 17% of Brazilians have confidence in their national government, down from 51% just ten years ago. In the first round, 47 politicians convicted of corruption or currently under investigation were beaten during a re-election bid.
At the same time, inattention to public safety has turned many Brazilian urban centers into shooting galleries. Seven Brazilian cities are among the 20 most violent in the world. In 2017, the country recorded a record 63,880 homicides, up 2.9% from 2016. It is therefore not surprising that democracy in Brazil has become "synonymous with weakness, chaos and leniency towards criminals, "According to Brian Winter, editor-in-chief of Quarterly Americas.
The backbench of Congress and former paratrooper Bolsonaro, aged 63, entered this vortex, spotless of corruption and skilfully capitalizing on popular anger at the status quo. Avoiding traditional means of campaigning – massive financing, resorting to traditional party machinery and free television time – he relied heavily on social media to connect with his supporters.
Although he proposed few detailed policies, he was not afraid to speak bluntly about the ills of Brazilian society (and many others). Its themes have been the fight against crime, the adoption of a zero tolerance approach to corruption and the release of Brazil's $ 2 trillion economy from its regulatory shackles. He ruthlessly attacked criminals and Brazilian politicians venal and disconnected.
To those who accuse him of authoritarian tendencies, he says: "My administration will have authority, not authoritarianism." He also highlighted the 27 years he has spent at the Brazilian National Congress to demonstrate his respect for democratic institutions. Yet his many critics accuse him of posing an existential threat to Brazilian democracy. But this underestimates the Brazilian people and the resistance of their institutions, as damaged as they are. Brazil is a country of over 200 million people, with a wide range of well-entrenched interests that mitigate the effects of political extremism. Even if Bolsonaro had a secret program to supplant Brazilian democracy by a personalist dictatorship, he is not certain that he would go very far.
Despite fears as to what a Bolsonaro presidency might mean for Brazil, his rhetoric is unlikely to change and he has been very clear about what he does not want Brazil to look like: Venezuela.
Shortly after his victory in the first round, he said: "The brave people of Brazil want to get rid of socialism. They do not want the Venezuelan regime. They want a liberal economy and they want to defend family values. "
He also recognized the importance of the Brazilian private sector by hiring an economics advisor trained by the Chicago Orthodox University and making sure not to rob the markets with his flippant remarks. He provided little detail on his economic program, but insists that he will focus on controlling spending and privatizing state-owned enterprises. It will need a lot of economic aid: Brazil's budget deficit climbs to 8% of GDP and the national debt soars. (According to the Heritage Foundation's Economic Freedom Index, which assesses the degree of market economy research by countries, Brazil ranks 153rd out of 180 countries.)
Brazil is only the last country in which voters express their deep dissatisfaction with the status quo: the indifference and irresponsibility of their elected representatives even as they stuff their pockets with public funds. Millions of voters who have trusted the system to find that their needs and interests are ignored, while politicians get confused, embrace populism of all kinds. Faced with such challenges, no one should blame voters for their expectations – or their desperate search for solutions.
