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The global average sea level could rise nearly eight feet by 2100 and 50 feet before 2300 if greenhouse gas emissions remain high and if humanity would have been unlucky , according to a study of sea level change and predictions of Rutgers and other scientists.
Since the beginning of the century, the average sea level has increased by about 0.2 feet.
According to published central studies of the global mean sea level from different analyzes, estimates range from an additional 1.4 to 2.8 feet by 2100, from an additional 2.8 to 5.4 feet. from here 2150 and from 6 to 14 feet before 2300, according to the study published in Annual Review of the Environment and Resources.
According to the study, with 11% of the 7.6 billion inhabitants of the planet living in regions located less than 10 meters from sea level, the rise of the sea poses a risk major for coastal populations, economies, infrastructure and ecosystems.
The rise in sea level varies by location and time and scientists have developed a series of methods to reconstruct past changes and project future changes.
However, despite divergent approaches, a clear story is emerging for the coming decades: From 2000 to 2050, the average level of the planet's oceans will most likely rise from six to ten inches, but it is extremely unlikely that It is increasing by more than 18 inches.
Beyond 2050, projections are more sensitive to changes in greenhouse gas emissions and methods of projecting changes in sea level.
"We know a lot about past and future changes in sea level and many uncertainties. But uncertainty is no reason to ignore the challenge, "said Robert E. Kopp, co-author of the study and a professor in the Department of Earth and Planet Sciences at Rutgers University (New York). Brunswick) and director of the Institute of the Earth, Ocean, Rutgers. and the sciences of the atmosphere. "Defining carefully what is known and what is uncertain is essential to manage the risks associated with sea level rise for the world's coasts."
Scientists have used case studies from Atlantic City, New Jersey and Singapore to explain how current methods of reconstructing sea level change can limit future global and local projections.
They also discussed methods for using scientific sea level projections and how specific projections can lead to new sea level research questions.
According to the study, much of the sea level rise in the 20th century, including the bulk of the global increase since 1975, is linked to global warming caused by climate change. # 39; man.
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