The second trial of Paul Manafort could be even more difficult than his first


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Almost all of the 10 days of the Alexandria trial were devoted to the chief case of the prosecution. The lawyers called over two dozen witnesses, including Gates, with more than 360 exhibits.

The Manafort team however chose not to present its own defense case and called no witnesses.

Instead, they argued in concluding that "beyond a reasonable doubt" was an extremely high burden of proof to reach. They also reiterated their position in their opening remarks that Manafort did not intentionally violate the federal tax rules and was misled and misled by Gates.

Until now, the defense has not indicated whether it plans to present a case at the second trial. But a preliminary statement, submitted by the teams of Manafort and Mueller, indicates that this possibility still exists.

Manafort "has not determined whether he will present a defense," the statement said, adding that "any defense case will require between three and four days of trial." Government lawyers have predicted that their case would take 10 to 12 days.

The previous strategy may have hindered prosecutions in light of the stalemate over 10 counts. But the seven criminal charges against Manafort in the DC case could be harder to beat without an "affirmative defense," said David Shapiro, a former investigator in charge of financial crimes at the FBI.

"Mr. Manafort denied having the guilty state of mind" in the first trial, Shapiro said. This, he added, is "difficult to sell when you sign documents, create front companies and receive USD amounts in your accounts to spend."

The whirlwind of political intrigue surrounding the incumbent president's former campaign president's criminal case could give Manafort an opportunity to defend himself, Shapiro added.

"His defense may be that the lawsuit is politically motivated because it has favored individuals and organizations allied to Russia against supporters of the US government to create a separate and independent Ukraine," said Shapiro.

But experts who follow Manafort's tests predict that some of the charges appear to be watertight.

"In summary, it seems disproportionate by money laundering charges," said Shapiro, "with a low probability of success against lobbying charges abroad."

Trump's continued intrusions into Manafort's perilous legal situation could only contribute to this legal strategy. For example, after Jackson ordered Manafort to be imprisoned, Trump mistakenly described the judgment as a "severe sentence" for his former campaign leader.

Shortly after the jury in Alexandria had handed down his guilty verdicts, Mr. Trump told reporters that "Paul Manafort is a good man," adding, "I am very sad about his situation."

The Manafort defense team, however, did not welcome the words of support from the president.

The former Trump campaign leader, his lawyers argued, "has become a dishonest actor in the larger drama between Mr. Mueller and President Trump".

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