The Senate is surprised that we have – and have not seen – coming

It has been more than a year since we published our first articles on the US Senate control race. Even then, around May 2017 (God helps us), we knew that the map favored Republicans and that the battle for control of the room would be launched. Since then, many things have happened: there have been unorthodox candidates and a changing battlefield map; a seat on the Supreme Court has opened, creating an overwhelming political controversy for senators locked in a tight race; and the climate in the country remained very partisan and very antagonistic politically. Twice in the last year, I came to work at the sight of police guarding offices housing dozens of journalists.

Given the pace of the political news cycle – and considering that there is not much left to say the day before polling day – I thought that it would It would be helpful to take a look at how debates in the Senate have unfolded since the beginning when we knew even less than we do now, at the primaries, at the last push of the general election.

The racial handicap much too early

Let's start at the beginning. The year was 2017 and President Trump had just been inaugurated. The Democrats were worried and the Republicans were feeling well, knowing that there were 10 Democrat senators among the states that Trump had won in 2016 and whose seats would be elected in 2018. The Ohio, Pennsylvania, the West Virginia and Wisconsin all had risk seats discussed in the press. (The Democratic incumbents in each of these states are currently the favorites in each of these races, according to FiveThirtyEight forecasts.)

In September 2017, I wrote a list of what I called "unlikely" scenarios that could change the map of the Senate. The past year in politics has turned out to be staggering enough that some of the things I've put into play have come to fruition. Of the unlikely scenarios I've identified? The Alabama Senate's open seat to a Democrat, Tennessee Senator Bob Corker, is plagued by reelection issues, and Texas or New Jersey are freeing themselves from their partisan paradigms to elect an elected official. on the other side of the street.

Corker announced soon after that he would retire. Republican Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona did the same thing a month later. Two months after Flake's announcement, Democrat Doug Jones won the seat in the Alabama Senate, previously held by Jeff Sessions, prior to the race. That month, the New York Times called the Senate "twisted", although we were a little more cautious.

As time went on, things seemed a lot more unstable than a few months ago. In Ohio, Republican presidential candidate Josh Mandel, who appeared ready to lead an aggressive campaign, retired unexpectedly to face incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown in January 2018, leaving Republicans without a clear candidate, but also in another key state. an uncertain position as the first season approaches.

The primaries

Spring 2018 resulted in primaries and unexpected dynamics. To know that a lot of candidates have tried to do a little weird in their campaign. A little, dare I say, Trumpian. Sometimes it turned against us; sometimes it worked. The West Virginia Republican fight aimed at choosing an opponent of Democratic Senator Joe Manchin was particularly colorful – you may remember the foreign candidate and former coal leader, Don Blankenship, who raised a little in calling Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell "Cocaine Mitch". While Republican general Patrick Morrisey won the race, the GOP medal could have helped Manchin improve his position in the race. His reelection had already been questioned, but he now has 7 chances out of 8 to win, according to FiveThirtyEight forecasts.

In Arizona, former Sheriff Joe Arpaio participated in the Republican primaries. It's the man who was pardoned by Trump after his criminal contempt conviction for ignoring a court order in a racial profiling case. Kelli Ward, a former hard-line conservative senator, and US representative Martha McSally were also in the running. Arpaio and Ward brought the flavors of the wackiest side of the activist right, and the three-way race divided media attention. Democratic candidate Kyrsten Sinema, a member of the United States House, has had a few months of uncritical scrutiny in the press, and now has a one in four chance of beating McSally in the general election.

Some former Trump skeptics softened their positions on the president. McSally in Arizona and Leah Vukmir of Wisconsin, both candidates for the Republican party in their state and Trump's somewhat reluctant supporters, have come closer to aligning with the president. The somewhat unnatural crises may have led to less than stellar performances during the general election period. Vukmir, who runs against Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin in a state that the president won in 2016, has only 1 in 40 chance of winning, according to our forecasts.

The general election

The general elections had the theme of "independence" in many states of the Senate. Red-State Democrats who hope to retain their seat try to stand out from the perception of a top-down leadership style in Washington (a recent radio ad). Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill said she was not "one of those crazy Democrats."). Democrat Senator Joe Donnelly of Indiana aired an ad that could easily have been cut off by the Republicans, up to the quote of Ronald Reagan, and the Tennessee Democrat, Phil. Bredesen said he would not vote for Chuck Schumer to be the leader of the party in the Senate.

But as we approach the subject, the theme of the 2018 Senate race may well be "partisanship". Democrats of the Red State who seek to defend their territory – and in the cases of Arizona, Texas and Tennessee, win seats – vie for a mighty force in the form of sport politics 2018. The turnout and persuasion could help Democrats overcome difficulties and win the Senate, but they probably will not. Sometimes politics is exactly as tribal as we perceive it.