The world first learned of a landmark summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, the news did not come from a presidential tweet or a media ad d & # 39; State. He came from a South Korean official in glasses standing in the dark alley of the White House on a cool March night.
In an impromptu appearance, Chung Eui-yong, South Korea's national security advisor, told the press that he had just come from a meeting with Trump. That week, Chung flew from Pyongyang to Washington, where Kim had asked him to deliver a personal letter to Trump. Kim, he told the media, had invited the US president to meet face-to-face to discuss the end of the North Korean nuclear program. And Trump had accepted.
The journalists were stunned. At the time, many people feared war. Trump had threatened to rain "fire and fury" on North Korea, and Kim responded with his own threats to cremate Washington with one of his long-range nuclear missiles. Now, Chung announced the very first meeting of a sitting US president and a North Korean leader. "With President Trump," he said, "we are optimistic about the continuation of a diplomatic process to test the possibility of a peaceful resolution."
Why did not Trump entrust Chung with advertising the summit? But it was normal that a South Korean official had made the announcement. More than any other player in this diplomatic tragedy, South Korean President Moon Jae-in was the main person responsible for the historic meeting. Acting as mediators between Trump and Kim, he and his senior assistants had spent months encouraging, cajoling and flattering the two leaders to accept the conditions that made their denuclearization talks possible.
photo Illustration by Creative Picturebox for Newsweek; Moon Photography by Kim Hong-Ji / Getty
For Moon, the Singapore summit was a diplomatic and political triumph. A joint declaration reaffirmed the North's commitment to "work towards a complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula" and gave the United States security guarantees for North Korea. Trump and Kim also promised to start high-level negotiations to resolve their differences. As a result of the meeting, polls showed that Moon enjoyed his best ratings since his election in May 2017.
But Trump soon produced some surprises that could have devastating consequences for the southern leader -Korean and his country. In particular, he suspended joint military exercises with South Korea and reiterated his desire to reduce Washington's defense costs by removing 28,500 US troops from the Korean peninsula. Conceived as reciprocal gestures of goodwill towards Pyongyang, the measures taken by the US president have shaken Moon and weakened the security of South Korea, according to some analysts. Meanwhile, some US officials have raised doubts about Kim's sincerity; NBC News recently reported that North Korea has been increasing the production of enriched uranium for nuclear weapons in recent months, even as it pursued diplomacy. Critics in Washington and Seoul are now nervous that Moon has paved the way for a diplomatic process that puts the fate of South Korea in the hands of an unpredictable American president that could make the country vulnerable to the North and to China.
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"When the Moon became the catalyst that brought the whole discussion of war to peace, it was the only one in the world. "man of the hour" Sue Mi Terry, a former CIA analyst Korea now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, tells Newsweek . "Now he discovers that he is not driving this train."
As the United States and North Korea prepare to continue denuclearization negotiations, the stakes for Moon could not be higher. Disarming the North would cement his legacy as a power broker who helped overcome decades of stalemate and usher in a new era of peace for both Koreas. Failure, however, could cost him the presidency – and revive the threat of a war that would certainly devastate Greater Seoul and its 25 million people.
Oliver Contreras-Pool / Getty
Life on a "razor's edge"
Moon, 65, said that he decided to become president and make peace with the North in 2009 when, as a senior official of the Progressive Democratic Party, he met his model, former President Kim Dae-jung. Kim, who won the Nobel Peace Prize as the first South Korean president to visit Pyongyang, begged his protégé not to abandon his so-called policy of engagement with North Korea. A few days later, Kim passed away. "It was the moment," Moon told reporters last year. "He uttered those words as if they were his last will."
But Moon, who was born in a refugee camp at the end of the Korean War for parents who fled the North, formed his liberal sensibilities much earlier. As a law student, he complained of the succession of authoritarian rulers in his country, who have taken a tough line against North Korea. Moon became an outspoken student activist, earning a jail time for major pro-democracy protests. Upon his release, he was enlisted in the South Korean Army
. In August 1976, Moon, then special forces squad leader, saw closely how relations were strained between the two countries. how quickly circumstances might shift from calm to crisis. One morning, North Korean soldiers used axes to brutally kill two US military officers who were monitoring a tree-cutting operation in the demilitarized zone, a narrow strip of rugged territory that separates the two Koreas. The North Korean commander had argued that the tree, which was blocking the view of a United Nations observation post, had been planted personally by their nation's leader, Kim Il Sung. The incident made international headlines and, in a flash, the armistice between the United States and North Korea, aged 23, nearly collapsed. President Gerald Ford ordered a second task force to completely remove the tree.
AP Photo
Moon was part of a force of more than 800 US and South Korean soldiers who accompanied the crew. When they entered the demilitarized zone, Cobra combat helicopters and B-52 bombers with a nuclear system circulated over their heads. Offshore, the USS Midway aircraft carrier is set up for possible air strikes. "We were at the forefront of the razor because of a bad perception or bad judgment" plunging the Korean peninsula into the war, said at the Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand, Van Jackson, The Atlantic . Chainsaws, Americans and their allies reduced the tree to a stump. Outnumbered and outnumbered, North Koreans kept their distance. But for Moon, the memory of that day has never been erased. "It was then that my vision of our country and our security, as well as my patriotism, were formed," Moon told an interviewer last year, just before his victory in the presidency [19659018]. activist for the Democratic Party. He entered politics in 2003, as chief of staff of another political mentor, President Roh Moo-hyun, who also believed in a conciliatory approach to North Korea. In 2007, Pyongyang's weapons tests derailed Roh's outreach policy, once again reminding South Koreans of the threat posed by the North. But Moon never gave up hope of reconciliation
Olympic Teams from North Korea and South Korea Participate in the Opening Ceremony of the 2018 Winter Games in PyeongChang. Matthias Hangst / Getty
The Matchmaker
When Moon won the presidency in May 2017, after an unsuccessful attempt in 2012, Kim Dae-jung's words still ring in his ears. He reversed the warmongering approach of his conservative predecessor, Park Geun-hye, and reached out to the North.
But Moon 's approach bogged down quickly as Trump and Kim launched insults and threats of nuclear annihilation against each other. the leader ignored Moon's repeated calls for dialogue. In one of Trump's tweets, the president even scolded Moon for his "appeasement speech" with North Korea, reprimanding: "They only understand one thing!"
But in January, with the Winter Olympics in South Korea suddenly responded to Moon, offering in a speech to open a dialogue with the South. Moon seized the opportunity. Representatives from the North and South traveled the demilitarized zone to discuss North Korea's participation in the Games. At the opening ceremony in February, athletes from both countries marched through the stadium under a flag representing a unified Korean peninsula, suggesting a thaw in their geopolitical stalemate. Another promising sign was the presence on Kim Yo Jong's stand, the youngest sister of the North Korean leader. The two Koreans have even formed a unified women's hockey team to participate in the games.
After games, officials from both countries continued to exchange visits in the midst of Trump and Kim's growing rhetoric. It is unclear who proposed the Kim-Trump summit, but the idea quickly developed. Both parties agreed that Chung, one of Moon's closest associates, would send the invitation to Trump.
KIM WON-JIN / AFP / Getty
While US and North Korean officials were discussing their leaders' meeting, Moon and Kim held their own summit in the DMZ's so-called Joint Security Area, only the third time leaders of North Korea and South Korea have met since the division of the country in 1945. The two leaders shook hands and planted a tree not far from the site of the ax murder incident. According to South Korean officials, Moon persuaded Kim to commit to denuclearization during his talks with Trump, arguing that his country would never be able to evade crippling international sanctions as long as it kept its position. nuclear arsenal.
Moon also flew to Washington and urged Trump to offer Kim security guarantees and economic incentives at their summit to convince Kim that his regime would be safe without nuclear weapons, according to US and South Korean officials. covered by anonymity. discuss sensitive diplomatic issues. In subsequent discussions, these officials said, Moon pleaded with Trump to allow a gradual process of denuclearization. And he persuaded Trump to ignore the hard-liners as National Security Advisor John Bolton, who pushed to overthrow Kim unless he agreed to hand over all his nuclear weapons and his infrastructure of manufacturing. bombs at the front.
Familiar with Trump Moon's oversized ego flattered him with keeping him aboard, telling the American president that a summit with Kim would merit him a well-deserved Nobel Peace Prize – a suggestion Trump cherished so much that she became a song at her gatherings. And when Trump briefly canceled the summit after a top North Korean official called Vice President Mike Pence a "political manna" for repeating Bolton's threat of regime change, Moon returned to Washington and told persuaded Trump to stay the course.
Kim provided an extra boost to Moon's diplomacy by honoring her promise to destroy her only known nuclear test site. Critics questioned the value of the gesture, noting that its previous nuclear tests had already almost destroyed the site. They also noted that the North Korean authorities had removed all sensitive equipment before detonating explosive charges, suggesting that Pyongyang was covering its bets in the event that denuclearization talks broke down. While some US officials have described Kim as misleading to produce more nuclear fuel, he may also be positioning himself before negotiations: the more fuel he has, the more he can trade chips for economic aid. .
ANTHONY WALLACE / AFP / Getty
The end of the "war games"
Skeptics in Washington flayed Trump for his performance at the Singapore summit. "The joint statement is a decidedly disappointing document, consisting largely of generalities and platitudes that Trump quickly attempted to fly over," says Jonathan Pollack, East Asia specialist at the Brookings Institution's Washington. Even worse, according to some analysts, Trump's decision to stop military exercises with South Korea. For the United States, he refused the influence of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo when he began denuclearization negotiations with his North Korean counterpart. And for South Korea, he removed Seoul's strongest reminder of Allied military power against Pyongyang. South Koreans, said Terry, the former CIA analyst, "find that some of the things they need, such as the alliance and the US military presence, are not as strong as they are." they thought so. "
This view, noting Trump's ruling that it calls "provocative" military exercises, is entirely consistent with the previous calls of the South Korean leader in the United States for to prevent them from opposing the North, which has always considered them as "war games". in May, while Trump was still exercising what he calls the "maximum pressure" on North Korea, South Korea abandoned a joint training exercise involving US B-52 bombers, stating that he was likely to stir up tensions. Trump and Kim.
Despite Conservative criticism, Moon supported Trump and his decision to suspend joint exercises. "We believe that it is necessary to consider different ways of promoting dialogue as long as serious negotiations are underway between the United States and North Korea for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the United States. peace building, "said South Korean spokesman Kim Eui. Kyomeom told reporters.
JUNG YEON-JE / AFP / Getty
William McKinney, a former high-ranking Korean commander of the US Army in the Pacific, notes that Pyongyang has good reason to feel threatened by some of these joint military exercises. Described by the Pentagon as "decapitation" exercises, previous exercises involved American stealth bombers with nuclear capabilities, ballistic missile submarines and up to 350,000 US and South Korean troops. In recent years, the United States has even launched a pair of unarmed intercontinental ballistic missiles from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, dropping them into waters off the North Korean coast. North, a website focused on North Korea, McKinney wrote that because of the "highly provocative" nature of the exercises, "[Trump’s] a surprising commitment [to suspend them] is the most strategic confidence measure that can be done. 19659002] Moon now seems to have achieved two key objectives of his engagement policy: direct talks between the United States and North Korea and a reduction of military tensions between the two adversaries. In recent local elections – widely considered a referendum on Moon's policies – his ruling party, the Democratic Party, has won 11 of the 12 parliamentary elections and 14 of the 17 major races of governors and mayors. A poll after the summit gave it a 79% popularity rating, the highest of all democratically elected presidents in South Korea after a year in power. "The South Korean government seems to be very happy," said Victor Cha, President George W. Bush's chief adviser on Korean affairs.
Trump's speech in Singapore on the money that the United States would save by bringing troops home has been echoed in Washington. Some analysts now warn that China would be the biggest winner of such a withdrawal, and that allies of East Asia – South Korea and Japan – would suffer by losing the guarantee of American protection, a central element of their respective alliances with Washington. "China would like to see a reduction of the military forces [U.S.] in Northeast Asia and a widening gap between the United States and its allies and partners," says Ryan Hass, a specialist in the military. East Asia at the Brookings Institution. "Beijing is now on track to achieve these goals at lower cost."
For Moon and his country, the risks are serious: a nuclear deal that reduces South Korean security in a region dominated by China; or no agreement at all, another war of words, and perhaps a war involving nuclear-tipped missiles. The South Korean leader considers, however, that such discussions are premature. With the denuclearization of North Korea still in its infancy, it could happen years before the peace process that it began to reach the point where it is considered safe to bring back US troops from Korea. South. For the moment, Moon is focusing on the small steps that will allow the process to go forward.
On June 22, the Pentagon announced that, in coordination with senior South Korean officials, the The US military had indefinitely suspended major military exercises. on the Korean peninsula. A few days later, North Korea canceled its "anti-US. Rally of Imperialism, "one of the most important and politically charged events on the Pyongyang calendar." North Korea also recently informed the White House that it would soon make the remains More than 200 US soldiers missing since the end of the Korean War (1950-53).
Meanwhile, North and South Korea are working to reduce their own tensions. removing weapons from an area of the demilitarized zone, where, more than forty years ago, Moon saw how a feud over an overgrown tree could drive two nations to the brink of war .] The aircraft carrier USS Midway was put in position for possible air strikes against North Korea in 1976. Bettmann Archive / Getty
![FE_Moon_06_961460810 [19659013] South Korea Moon Jae-in and Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House on May 22. </span> <span class=](http://s.newsweek.com/sites/www.newsweek.com/files/styles/full/public/2018/06/29/femoon06961460810.jpg)
Oliver Contreras-Pool / Getty ![FE_Moon_04_AP526080690649 [19659020] An American Military Policeman There are poplar dots that sparked the August 1976 incident that caused the deaths of two US officers after being attacked by North Korean soldiers. </span> <span class=](http://s.newsweek.com/sites/www.newsweek.com/files/styles/full/public/2018/06/29/femoon04ap526080690649.jpg)
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![FE_Moon_09_883518520 [19659033] North Korean soldiers present a rally in Pyongyang in December 2017. </span> <span class=](http://s.newsweek.com/sites/www.newsweek.com/files/styles/full/public/2018/06/29/femoon09883518520.jpg)
KIM WON-JIN / AFP / Getty ![FE_Moon_05_971873796 [19659040] Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un walk together during a break in their talks at the June summit in Singapore. </span> <span class=](http://s.newsweek.com/sites/www.newsweek.com/files/styles/embed-lg/public/2018/06/29/femoon05971873796.jpg)
ANTHONY WALLACE / AFP / Getty ![FE_Moon_10_167515166 19659047] South Korea and United States Navy soldiers leave an amphibious assault vehicle on the coastline during a joint landing operation at Pohang in 2013. </span> <span class=](http://s.newsweek.com/sites/www.newsweek.com/files/styles/embed-lg/public/2018/06/29/femoon10167515166.jpg)
JUNG YEON-JE / AFP / Getty
![FE_Moon_13_AP18172054567220 19659059] Chinese President Xi Jinping welcomes Kim Jong Un from North Korea to Beijing in June. </span> <span class=](http://s.newsweek.com/sites/www.newsweek.com/files/styles/full/public/2018/06/29/femoon13ap18172054567220.jpg)
Trump's speech in Singapore on the money that the United States would save by bringing troops home has been echoed in Washington. Some analysts now warn that China would be the biggest winner of such a withdrawal, and that allies of East Asia – South Korea and Japan – would suffer by losing the guarantee of American protection, a central element of their respective alliances with Washington. "China would like to see a reduction of the military forces [U.S.] in Northeast Asia and a widening gap between the United States and its allies and partners," says Ryan Hass, a specialist in the military. East Asia at the Brookings Institution. "Beijing is now on track to achieve these goals at lower cost."
