"The tiredness of Scott Walker" haunts Republicans

GREEN BAY, Wisc. – There is every reason to believe that this is the beginning of the end for Scott Walker.

His presidential candidacy was crushed and burned. He is running for a third term as governor in personalities hostile to the Republican Party. Polls show that independent voters who have been so critical of Walker's victories in the 2012 recall and the 2014 reelection are separating from him.

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After years of futility, Democrats are convinced that they finally cornered it.

"He's stuck with a bad environment. He is struggling with a long term and he is struggling with a short general election, "said Tom Russell, Wisconsin's consultant to the Democratic Governors Association.

The signs that Walker is ready to be removed are everywhere. His opponent, Superintendent of Schools, Tony Evers, has a slight lead in recent polls and there is evidence that critical suburban voters are moving to the left.

Three former Walker assistants even turned on the governor, with two ads for Evers. And Walker quickly became negative on Evers, including in a very busy new ad.

Just as importantly, the Democrats are presenting a populist candidate that they believe to have been created at the moment – Evers, which took off by decisively winning an overcrowded primary and raised $ 1 million in its first week as a candidate.

Career educator, Evers stands in stark contrast to Walker, who has held elective positions for more than two decades. Democrats have grabbed a message of "walker fatigue" that blames it for a shortage of teachers and a deterioration of roads ("Scottholes"). as a group calls them) and the rising costs of health care.

The governor's real weakness in his bid for a third term could however be his 2016 run for president. His detractors argue that Walker is more concerned about his political ambition than the people of Wisconsin. The TV commercials are already aired by the Walker White House, claiming it can not be entrusted for four years.

This clearly hits a nerve with Walker.

By concluding a state theft in Waukesha on the first day of last month's election campaign, Walker began to move away from a scrum, no longer asking questions. But when asked if residents of Wisconsin could trust his governorship, given his run for the 2016 presidential election, Walker has stalled in his footsteps.

"Tony Evers was a candidate for the position of Superintendent for a four-year term, and a year later he introduced himself as governor. You ask him the same question? He asked a reporter, showing the reporter's voice recorder, then pressing: "It's on the record, right? Are you going to ask him the same question? "(POLITICO then asked the Evers campaign, the answer was" yes ").

Walker then responded directly about his intentions.

"Of course, 100%. I'm a governor candidate, I'll be here for four years, "Walker said, noting that he had been on a state-wide listening tour after giving up his presidential ambitions. "I came back and did listening sessions in the 72 counties. That's what influenced our budget, the changes we made in the field of education … we all went back to basics. "

"A lot of people have said that I could have easily gone on and done something else. I could have joined the Cabinet, could have joined the public sector, "Walker said. "Instead, I am committing myself to be governor."

For all the storm clouds that surround Walker's perspective, few of them are ready to write to him. As he runs for a third term, his job approval ratings remain in a fairly narrow bandNever fall too low or climb too high.

He is also cash-flush, considering the $ 8.6 million Walker and the state reported to the bank in July. In addition, the Association of Republican Governors is expected to invest $ 5.7 million in the preservation of Walker's government. Walker can boast a healthy state economy and an unemployment rate of 2.9%. He believes that Evers' victory would mean higher taxes and delay the economy.

Walker's sustainability and resilience – he has run and won tough elections since his early twenties – inspires Republican confidence. He is the last man among a Wisconsin GOP triumvirate who gained national prominence in the Obama era, only to see their fortunes shattered during Trump's presidency.

The Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, does not stand for re-election. Reince Priebus, former president of the Republican National Committee, was ousted from his position as White House chief of staff after six chaotic months.

"I do not think anyone thinks it will not be the country's most competitive governor race," said Brandon Scholz, a Republican strategist and former executive director of the Wisconsin GOP party.

Scholz said that one of Walker's greatest assets is the strength of a state-wide republican organization he helped build. "You see how much Walker works: he's a guy of 8 events a day. He has always been a workaholic, all the time. He redoubled his efforts. "

Republicans say Walker's political machine, which includes a proven field strategy and infantrymen already in place, will fight these outside forces. They point to the disputed Senate primary of August 14, where Leah Vukmir was largely overwhelmed but still defeated Kevin Nicholson. Walker did not accept the race, but his son, Alex, was Vukmir's political director and the GOP party apparatus did everything for her.

"The fact that she has won shows that the Walker organization is as powerful as she was in 2016 when she was mobilized on behalf of Ted Cruz," she said. said pollster Republican Chris Wilson, who analyzed Nicholson's campaign. Trump in the Wisconsin presidential primary. "The only area I can talk about with any level of authority is that we got kicked by a ground game – Walker's grassroots organization – which will be just as energetic in November."

The import of the Wisconsin governor's race is lost to neither party. Walker's Toppling, long a symbol of anti-union and conservative policies, would bring an emotional boon to the left and serve to consolidate a decisive turning point for Democrats as we approach 2020.

For Republicans, by pushing Democratic enthusiasm back into a key Midwestern state, Trump unexpectedly won less than 25,000 votes in 2016, which would be just as important.

They expect Evers, elected for the first time as Superintendent in 2009, to be at a disadvantage compared to Walker, who has accumulated a greater reserve of cash than in 2014.

But the cavalry arrives for Evers. The Association of Democratic Governors has already pledged at least $ 3.8 million, while other major groups should donate resources to the Evers campaign: former Attorney General Eric Holder, Organizing for Action Obama, Tom Steyer's NextGen America and the National Democratic Committee.

"I do not think it's the democratic enthusiasm of Madison and Milwaukee, the democratic enthusiasm and the opposition of Trump and Walker all over Wisconsin," said Sachin Chheda, a Democratic strategist. former president of Milwaukee County.

Chheda cites "a massive shift to the left" in what was once a solid Walker territory – including special elections in Brown County in Green Bay and the Twin Cities suburb in St. Croix County.

Democrats also cite three public polls in recent weeks – NBC / Marist, Marquette and Suffolk / Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel – show that independent voters separate from Walker, a discouraging signal given that the state is divided almost equally politically, making it an essential part of the governor's path to victory.

"What all these polls have said is that the independents go for Evers on Walker by 10 points. Walker usually won independents when he came to victory, "said Chheda.

While Walker is expected to return to the GOP-rich suburban ridings outside Milwaukee – he dominates in "WOW" counties where turnout is high – Chheda said that if the Democrats could nibble, more difficult to Walker to win the state.

The Trump factor could play a role in these suburbs. Even Republicans admit Trump's unfiltered accusations on social media and a series of scandals affecting his entourage could spur GOP voters to stay home in November, including those encouraged by Trump's immigration and immigration policies. taxes.

"This guy is simply saying and doing things that make you back off," said Scholz, the Republican consultant, about Trump. "The balance test is this: Okay, you've won victories on issues you've wanted for a long time, but the guy who makes them makes you want to throw up in your mouth. What to do? Stay at home and do not vote? Or do you vote for people on the ticket, to make sure what's going on for Republicans and Conservatives, and what's going on in the state capitol is what you want?

One of the statistics with which both sides can agree is the direction that rural voters take, and that is with Walker. Rural counties in Wisconsin, with a population of 10,000 or less, have long maintained Walker's position, and neither side thinks it will change in November.

"Scott Walker and the Wisconsin Republicans have won the support of hard-working families in rural areas of the state because they defended them and achieved results," said Brian Reisinger, Walker's senior advisor. "The Democrats have lost contact with these voters a long time ago and they are not likely to recover them."