The trump administrator thinks the Iranian regime is about to fall. Few others do it. – 41NBC News

November 10, 2018 / 11:00 GMT

By Dan De Luce, Robert Windrem and Abigail Williams

WASHINGTON – Senior Trump administration officials are convinced that the Iranian regime is vulnerable to collapse and that severe economic sanctions in the US could accelerate its downfall, foreign diplomats and US diplomats told NBC News. former US officials.

President Donald Trump himself wondered if the plan could last.

"When I first came here, the question was when would they take the Middle East," Trump said in an interview with Bloomberg News in August. "It's now a question of survival. It's a big difference in a year and a half.

But European allies and intelligence experts disagree and see Washington's forecast as a wishful-thinking case. While acknowledging the growing economic and political problems of the regime, European governments believe that the Iranian leadership remains firmly rooted and that any attempt to overthrow the government could produce a worse outcome, the diplomats said.

In meetings with foreign counterparts, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, National Security Advisor John Bolton and other officials said the regime was fragile and increasingly unable to manage an economy. in trouble and a frustrated population, according to nine foreign diplomats. They cite rising inflation, strikes and sporadic protests as tell-tale signs of a regime in peril, and that US sanctions on its oil exports – coming into effect this week – could be a fatal blow in Tehran Middle East or even lose its grip on power.

"It's their logic," said a European diplomat who said he did not agree and asked for anonymity. "They say the regime will fall."

US intelligence agencies have also not detected signs that the Iranian regime was about to collapse, US officials told NBC News. They see a diet that seems to control just as firmly as it has for years. But they said they saw a country with growing headaches and thought that US sanctions to reduce oil revenues could cause real hardships for the regime.

"The policies of the Trump administration seem designed to add to the political stress that already exists in Iran," said a former US intelligence official.

Pompeo, Bolton and other senior officials publicly insisted that the administration was not seeking a regime change and that their policy was simply to change the regime's behavior.

"We certainly do not like this diet. It's a deeply hypocritical religious dictatorship that steals its blind people, "a state department official told NBC News, who was not allowed to speak. "In the end, it is up to the people of Iran to decide under which government they want to live. … We want the Iranian people to succeed. We hope that they can restore democracy there. "

Bolton has a long tradition of public statements calling for weakening the regime and replacing it. Eight months before being appointed by Trump to his current position, Bolton delivered the keynote address at the annual Iranian People's Mojahedin Convention, an anti-regime group known in Iran as the MEK: "I have said for the past 10 years that I am participating in these events and that the declared US policy of America should be to overthrow the mullahs' regime in Tehran. "

National Security Advisor John Bolton, left, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, attend a meeting held at the offices of the Eisenhower Executive Office in Washington, DC on October 11, 2018.Handrew Harrer / Bloomberg via Getty Images

In words reminiscent of Cold War speeches, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo expressed his solidarity with the people of Iran and appeared to urge him to overthrow his leaders.

"In light of these protests and 40 years of regime tyranny, I have a message to address to the Iranian people: the United States hear you; the United States supports you; the United States is with you, "said Pompeo in a speech in July in front of an audience of Iranian-Americans in Los Angeles.

"And you should know that the United States is not afraid to broadcast our message on the Iranian airwaves and online inside Iran," said Pompeo, announcing his intention to launch a 24-hour channel on 24 in Farsi language.

The administration has launched an aggressive war of information against Iran on social media and on a virtual embassy site, ridiculing the Iranian leaders about corruption, air pollution , water shortages and repression of dissidents.

The Hawks close to the administration see many parallels between Iran and the former Soviet Union and claim that the current president could play a role similar to that of former President Ronald Reagan in taking a hard and uncompromising stance towards the Tehran regime.

"We do not know that the regime will collapse. And we do not know when, "said Mark Dubowitz, executive director of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, who supported the government's exit from the Iranian nuclear deal. "But we feel that this regime is much weaker than people think, and that there is something rotten in the heart of the Islamic Republic, in the same way that there was a in the heart of the Soviet Union. "

The analogy with the USSR prompted an internal debate among conservatives in Washington, commentator and author Fred Kagan warning that the comparison is not clear and that Iran's rulers could still retain power for some time.

The Iranian economy has been severely tested over the past year, partly due to new sanctions imposed by the United States and years of mismanagement by the government, experts say. The rial plunged to records, losing 70% of its value. The IMF predicts that the average inflation rate could exceed 34% next year, large European companies withdrew and periodic shortages due to the panic buying of necessities. Teachers and truck drivers organized strikes and thousands protested in cities across the country in December and January against rising prices and alleged corruption by the government.

According to European diplomats and experts, demonstrations and strikes focus on specific grievances and have not turned into a broader political movement.

"It would take much more than what is currently happening to produce a collapse or a regime change," said another European diplomat who asked not to be named.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani warned the country that US sanctions would cause economic problems, but his government would resist the pressure.

"We are in a war situation," Rouhani said. "We are in a situation of economic war. We are facing an intimidating enemy. We have to stand up to win.

Unlike a previous Obama-led pressure campaign between 2012 and 2015, the United States is conducting a unilateral sanctions effort without the political backing of Europe and with Russia indicating its intention to throw a lifeline economic for Iran.

Even though Iran survives Washington's latest pressure, the Islamic republic seems to be falling into a long-term decline, said the former US intelligence officer.

The revolutionary energy of the Islamic Republic has dissipated over the years, he said, and the youth of the country is deeply aware of a more open and prosperous life elsewhere.

He warned, however, that the end is not necessarily near, partly because the Revolutionary Guards are well placed to crush the opposition and maintain control of the regime.

"Although Iran appears more and more fragile, it does not seem to be about to collapse," he said. The Revolutionary Guard "seems to remain endowed with sufficient resources, organizational cohesion and its units are spread all over the country".

Another former intelligence officer, John McLaughlin, who served as deputy director and acting director of the CIA, said the current regime faces no organized and unified opposition.

"The main epidemics against the government, in 2009 and before, were hampered by factionalism among protesters and the lack of unified leadership, which allowed the security forces to relatively easily neutralize their opponents," he said. McLaughlinsins.

"I have not seen any evidence that this has changed, so we should not hold our breath while waiting for the great uprising to be successful, just like what we saw in Europe in the past. Is 30 years ago. "

A vehicle burns as protesters protest high prices and the poor state of the economy in Dorud, Iran's Lorestan province on December 30, 2017.SalamPix / Abaca / Sipa USA via AP

In the absence of a viable opposition, the destabilization of the regime could only produce an even more aggressive government, dominated by well-armed and well-funded Revolutionary Guards, declared former officials and leaders. European diplomats.

"They do not have a plan for what will follow," said a diplomat. "It's very scary."

If the regime breaks down, it is unlikely to produce a direct transition to a more accountable or representative government, "said Suzanne Maloney, an Iranian expert at the Brookings Institution.

"There is no precedent in the region's or Iran's history that it all ends quickly, cleanly and to our advantage," Maloney said.