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Carol Morello
National Rapporteur on Foreign Policy and Department of State
Missy Ryan
Reporter covering the Pentagon, military issues and national security
The Trump administration has launched its most concerted efforts to pressure Saudi Arabia to end the conflict in Yemen amid mounting opposition in Congress to continued US military support for the war. by the kingdom in this country.
Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have said in recent days that it's time to end more than three years of conflict between Houthi rebels and a government recognized by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and the West. US officials warned that the war had left half of Yemen's population, one of the poorest countries in the world, on the brink of starvation.
But the proposals put forward by Pompeo and Mattis are fraught with strategic limitations.
Mattis called for a ceasefire in which rebels would withdraw from the Yemen-Saudi border and begin negotiations within 30 days. But he also said Saudi Arabia has the right to defend itself against Houthi missiles, which US officials say were provided by Iran.
Pompeo proposed that the rebels first stop launching missiles on Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and that Saudi Arabia then stops the airstrikes that killed thousands of civilians.
"It is time to end this conflict, replace it with a compromise and allow the Yemeni people to heal through peace and reconstruction," said Pompeo.
The urgency of this appeal reflects the complexity of American interests in the Arabian Peninsula, several weeks after Pompeo certified in Congress that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were making progress in reducing the number of civilian casualties in Yemen. The report was necessary because the United States is helping the coalition to refuel its jet planes and share their intelligence with their military.
But none of the officials' statements had an "or other" attached to it, former officials said.
"If you give a pass to your closest ally and say," You have nothing to do until the enemy takes the first step ", this is not a problem. is not a serious proposition, "said Stephen Seche, former US ambassador to Yemen. is Executive Vice President of the Gulf States Institute in Washington. "You must propose to both parties to move simultaneously to implement a ceasefire."
It was also unclear who could rely on the Houthis and Iran, especially as Tehran may face US sanctions next week after President Trump's withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal.
"This will not happen by spontaneous combustion," said Aaron David Miller, Middle East specialist at the Wilson Center, describing the intriguing but half-cooked administration's initiative.
"Remember, next week the oil sanctions will come in. And Tehran will want something in return to take advantage of its Houthi ally."
But humanitarian organizations have expressed relief, feeling a glimmer of hope that the fighting that has killed more than 10,000 civilians could have a potential end in sight.
As the Trump government stepped up its pressure to end the war, the Saudi-led coalition sent thousands of additional troops to the front lines near the border. strategic port city of Hodeida. This raises the possibility of a grueling urban battle that could intensify the suffering of civilians.
The coalition has made capturing the Houthi city a priority, partly because it says the rebels have used the port to smuggle weapons supplied by Iran.
Mattis has spoken about the war several times in recent days and pointed to human suffering in a weekend speech in Bahrain.
"The time has come to put an end to this war," he said last weekend, while welcoming Saudi efforts to ensure a precise air operation and highlighting the difficulty of avoiding unintentional deaths when targeting remote activists.
[Saudi Arabia’s role in Yemen war comes under new scrutiny after Khashoggi killing]
Tuesday, speaking at the US Peace Institute, Mattis said urgently, "We need to move towards a peace effort here, and we can not say we'll do it someday We admired this problem long enough there.
Pompeo weighed in on Tuesday night, expressing support for UN special envoy Martin Griffiths, who called for talks to be held in November.
"The time has come for the cessation of hostilities, including missiles and [drone] strikes from the Houthi-controlled areas to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, "he said. "Subsequently, coalition air strikes must stop in all populated areas of Yemen."
The statements of officials have been stronger than anything the administration has said about Yemen in the last 17 months.
Pompeo was the subject of fierce criticism last month when he backed continued arms sales to the Saudis, after concerns were voiced about a potentially billion-dollar cut in arms sales to the kingdom.
Since then, events have converged to push the Trump administration to change its public stance on Saudi Arabia and Yemen.
The administration seems to be trying to override congressional proposals to reduce US support, while critics have been encouraged by international outrage over journalist Jamal Khashoggi's assassination of the Washington Post reporter. Washington Post collaborator, by a team of Saudi agents.
"It's hard not to think there's some sort of association here," said Seche, a former US ambassador. "Something else than a sudden desire to see the war come to an end. A wave of outrage that swept Saudi Arabia following the murder of Jamal Khashoggi has had an impact on our thinking, given our close association with Saudi Yemen as a preferred supplier of 39, weapons and logistical support. This involves the United States in this humanitarian crisis. It's time to take the lead. "
The administration's statements come as the two congressional parties insist that the United States intervene in the conflict.
Senator Todd C. Young (R-Ind.), Senator Rand Paul (R-Ky) and, more recently, Senator Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) Questioned the current policy. Senators Lindsey O. Graham (RS.C.) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.).
In the House, Representative Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) Presented a measure, now supported by senior Democratic leaders, that would end the US commitment to the conflict under the Powers Act. of war.
Gerald Feierstein, another former ambassador to Yemen, said that the changing analysis of Congress could transform US-Saudi relations, particularly with regard to the sale of arms.
"People really question the nature of the relationship," he said. Saudi Arabia is one of the world's largest buyers of advanced weapons and a major customer of US defense companies.
Feierstein said the administration may have another reason for a speedy end to hostilities: it would relieve pressure on the administration to take broader punitive measures against Saudi Arabia following the death. from Khashoggi. If US-made Saudi weapons are not used in Yemen, it will be easier for the United States to continue selling its weapons to the kingdom.
Robert Malley, a senior White House official under President Barack Obama and president of the International Crisis Group, said the Trump government had tightly adhered to the Gulf kingdom, easing the differences from the previous government and strengthening its Middle Allied center position in the Middle East.
"What's missing is to get something out of that embrace," he said. "It could restore some balance."
Michael Knights, senior official of the Institute for Near East Policy in Washington, said he feared that there would be pressure for a ceasefire to mitigate the political pressure does not mask the cracks that led to the war. But he said that a ceasefire and that negotiations now have a decent chance of succeeding.
"Because international support for this war is pretty much all you can get," he said, "the US is under intense pressure from its own branch of Congress, and progress is being made. military in the war are limited.The US envoy is very active and very effective.
"And exhaustion can be a factor," he added. "It improves the chances of a settlement."
Sudarsan Raghavan contributed to this report.
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