The United States down, China up, Spain in the lead

Life expectancy in 2040 is expected to at least slightly increase in all countries, but the ranking will change radically, with Spain in first place, while China and the United States exchange places, announced Wednesday researchers.

With an expected average life expectancy of nearly 85.8 years, Spain – formerly 4th – will overthrow Japan, which currently occupies first place in the rankings with a lifespan of 83.7 years and will move to the 2nd place in 2040.

In a change that will be perceived by some as the reflection of a superpower recovery, the two largest global economies are effectively exchanging their positions compared to 2016: in 2040, the United States passes from the 43rd to the 64th place (79.8 years), while China climbs from 68th to 39th (81.9 years).

The researchers found that other countries were about to lose ground in the race for longevity, including Canada (17-27), Norway (12-20), Australia (from 5 to 10), Mexico (69 to 87) and Taiwan (35 to 42). and North Korea, from 125th to 153rd).

Indonesia (117th to 100th), Nigeria (157th to 123rd), Portugal (from 23rd to 5th), Poland (from 48th to 34th), Turkey (from 40th to 26th), ln. Saudi Arabia (61st to 43rd).

Assuming its endless and devastating war ends, Syria is expected to rise from 137th in 2016 to 80th in 2040.

For the world as a whole, the researchers' study predicts a five-year life expectancy increase from 73.8 years in 2016 to 77.7 years in 2040.

They also predict more optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, in which life expectancy will rise to 81 years in the first case and stagnate in the second.

"The future of health in the world is not pre-ordained," said lead author Kyle Foreman, head of data science at the Institute of Metrology and D & T Assessment of Health (IHME) of the University of Washington.

"But if we find significant progress or stagnation depends on the quality or weakness of health systems to address the major factors of health."

– Smoking and poor nutrition –

The top five "drivers", or determinants, of average life span in two decades are all related to so-called "lifestyle" diseases: high blood pressure, overweight, high blood sugar, alcohol and tobacco use .

More generally, the world will witness an acceleration of the current shift from communicable diseases to noncommunicable diseases, as well as injuries, as the leading cause of premature death.

Air pollution ranks sixth, which, according to scientists, would cost a million lives a year in China alone.

According to the study published in The Lancet, the world's poorest countries in 2018 will continue to boast in terms of life expectancy.

With the exception of Afghanistan, the 30 poorest countries in 2040 – with a projected lifespan of 57 to 69 years – are either in sub-Saharan Africa or in small island states of the world. Peaceful.

Lesotho, the Central African Republic, Zimbabwe, Somalia and Swaziland are at the bottom of the ranking.

"Inequalities will continue to be important," said Christopher Murray, Director of IHME.

"In many countries, too many people will continue to earn relatively low incomes, remain poorly educated and die prematurely."

"But countries could move faster by helping people cope with major risks, including smoking and poor nutrition," he added.

Tobacco consumption alone kills an estimated seven million people each year, according to the World Health Organization.

In 2016, four of the top ten causes of premature death were noncommunicable diseases or injuries. By 2040, this figure is expected to reach eight out of ten.

The study is available on www.healthdata.org.

With an expected average life expectancy of nearly 85.8 years, Spain – formerly 4th – will overthrow Japan, which currently occupies first place in the rankings with a lifespan of 83.7 years and will move to the 2nd place in 2040