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The Trump administration fears that Russia can not help Tehran to escape US sanctions by buying Iranian oil and selling it back to its own.
US must reimpose heavy sanctions to end Iran's oil exports after November 5, which will be the most punitive measure to date after Donald Trump's decision to withdraw from an agreement Multilateral Nuclear Fund Providing for the Reduction of Sanctions.
But senior US officials are scrambling to convince other countries to cut Iranian oil imports and fear that Tehran is looking for alternative routes to supply.
"Iran could push the idea that Russia sells its oil on the world market to escape sanctions," said a senior administration official.
"I would discourage Russia from considering that. It would be in Russia's interest not to facilitate the escape by Iran of US sanctions. "
The warning comes as John Bolton, Trump's national security adviser, is preparing to meet senior Russian officials in Moscow early next week, followed by a visit to the neighboring oil exporter , Azerbaijan, which also borders Iran.
Russia opposes the Trump government's decision to reimpose oil sanctions on Iran and withdraw from the 2015 nuclear pact, which was also signed by China, the United Kingdom, France , Germany and the EU, as well as by Iran.
Moscow and Tehran support the Assad regime in Syria in its long civil war against the rebels, who sometimes claim the support of the Western powers led by the United States.
Iran's oil minister, Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, visited Moscow last week to meet with his Russian counterpart. The two men discussed cooperation between countries and said they wanted to stabilize the global oil market by increasing oil production, according to the Russian Ministry of Energy.
Meanwhile, US officials have traveled the world trying to assure Iranian oil customers, including India, South Korea and Japan, to stop importing Iranian oil.
"Our goal remains to cut down Iranian oil imports as quickly as possible, ideally by Nov. 4," said a spokesman for the state department.
But in recent weeks, the US authorities have declared for the first time in public that they are also willing to offer so-called special discount exemptions to some buyers, which suggests the possibility that Tehran will continue to export oil to countries that show a reduction in the overall amount. oil that they buy from Iran.
"The United States is launching an internal process to review SER exemptions for each country," a state department spokesman told reporters. "We are ready to work with countries that reduce their imports on a case-by-case basis."
The administration has encouraged major oil producers, such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, to increase their own exports to make up for any shortfall in the global market in order to guarantee importers an alternative to Iranian oil and oil. keep prices stable.
Russia began increasing its oil production five months ago, increasing production by at least 400,000 barrels a day to reach nearly 11.4 million barrels a day.
But Russian exports are expected to increase further after November 5th. Russian President Vladimir Putin said he thought Russia could add 200,000 to 300,000 b / d in the coming months, a level that analysts consider globally realistic.
advisable
Oil traders and analysts believe that it would be relatively easy to spot any large-scale oil transfer from Iran to Russia. The pair shares no pipeline, so any movement would almost certainly depend on oil tankers, possibly on the other side of the Caspian Sea, which would be relatively easy to track through satellite signals and imagery.
Several traders told the FT that they would not accept refurbished oil from Russia from Iran. Russian state-owned oil companies and private companies also want to stay out of US sanctions. The state-owned Russian oil company Rosneft is partly owned by BP, which owns 19.75% of the company's shares.
In another scenario, Russia could theoretically take Iranian oil and use it in its own refineries, thus releasing more of its domestic production for export.
A so-called oil-for-goods plan between Russia and Iran has been under discussion for years, following the previous round of sanctions imposed by the United States and the United States. European Union between 2012 and 2015.
While the press backed by the Russian and Iranian states said that the deal – in which Moscow would buy Iranian oil in exchange for Russian exports – began this spring, the market is skeptical about the conclusion of such an agreement.
The smuggling of crude oil is rare, but not unprecedented, and efforts have already been made to mask the origin of crude oil in places such as Iraqi Kurdistan. Isis also sold oil to finance his war.
"Russia does not need oil and will be subject to sanctions," said Joe McMonigle, former chief of staff of the US Department of Energy, who now works at Hedgeye Research. "Until now, US sanctions against Russia have been targeted, but a violation of the sanctions imposed on Iran would carry heavy consequences."
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Additional report of Henry Foy in Moscow
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