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ABU DHABI – The continuing development of American shale should allow the United States to outpace other major global oil and gas producers, with the potential for the country to account for about half of the world's crude growth and natural growth from here 2025, announced Tuesday the International Energy Agency.
In its annual report on global energy prospects, the IEA indicated that its main projection scenario up to 2040 projected that the United States would account for nearly 75% and 40% of global growth in the world. oil and gas over the next six years. Growth is expected to be driven primarily by shale fracking, which is expected to double the supply of American shale oil, to reach 9.2 million barrels per day by the mid-2020s. announced the agency.
"The shale revolution continues to disrupt the supply of oil and gas, allowing the United States to move away from the rest of the market as the world's largest oil and gas producer," the organization said. Paris advises governments and businesses on energy trends. "By 2025, nearly a fifth of a barrel of oil and a quarter of a cubic meter of gas in the world come from the United States."
The use of hydraulic fracturing to drill oil in shales – fracturing – has radically transformed the global oil industry over the last decade and has allowed the United States to compete with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries . The shale was largely at the origin of an overabundance of US oil that flooded the market more than four years ago, causing the price of oil to fall to $ 30 per barrel, compared with more than four years ago. $ 100 a barrel at the end of 2014.
US shale oil production is expected to stabilize in the mid-2020s, said the IEA in its Central Outlook Scenario, before dropping 1.5 million barrels a day in the 2030s due to limited resources . After 2025, the report says, "The relay is gradually shifting to OPEC to cope with continued growth – albeit slowing – of global oil demand."
The US Energy Information Administration announced this month that crude oil production in the United States reached 11.3 million barrels a day. This would put the United States at the same level as Russia, which surpassed Saudi Arabia to become the world's largest producer of crude oil.
OPEC's long-term outlook for the global oil landscape released in September indicates that the agreement predicts shale oil production in the US will peak in the late 2020s, creating demand for oil and gas. renewed its gross after a planned decline and stagnation.
The IEA said its central scenario predicted that global appetite for oil would rise by around one million barrels per day in 2025, before slowing to around 250,000 barrels a day. However, the agency said it does not expect global demand to peak until 2040. The growth in demand until 2025 should be driven by China, and between the end of 2020 and 2040 by India and the Middle East, the agency said.
At the same time, the IEA said that the use of petrol for cars fuel is expected to peak in the mid-2020s – due to stricter standards in the economy of fuel and the rise of electric vehicles -.
Write to Christopher Alessi at [email protected]
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