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- An area of low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean Sea is currently under surveillance for tropical development.
- Heavy local rainfall is the main threat at the moment for the lands around the western Caribbean.
- This region is a hot spot for the formation of tropical cyclones in October.
Tropical activities in the Caribbean may be rather quiet at present, but there is a zone of low pressure to monitor possible development in a place conducive to development in October.
A large area of low pressure produces disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
This system will be slow to organize, but progressive development is possible late this week and this weekend.
Current opportunities for satellite and tropical development (The potential area of tropical development according to the National Hurricane Center's latest outlook is indicated by a polygon, color-coded according to the developmental chances over the next five days.An "X" indicates the location of the hurricane. a current disturbance.)
Overall, the conditions are not very favorable and the National Hurricane Center has given this area little chance of developing over the next five days.
Moderate to high wind shear is on the trajectory of this low pressure zone, which will help slow tropical development in the short term.
Satellite and wind shear (The cloud areas are shown in white, the areas of strong wind shear, the difference in wind speed and direction with the height are indicated in purple, the high shear is hostile to tropical cyclones and those trying to to develop oneself.)
This disturbance is expected to move to Cuba in the next few days.
Whatever the development, showers and thunderstorms will affect the western Caribbean region over the coming days, including Jamaica and Central America. Showers could contribute to localized flooding.
It is too early to determine the trajectory of this low-pressure system as we approach next week and there are potential consequences for the United States.
If this disturbance could organize and strengthen in a tropical storm, it would be named Michael.
The Western Caribbean is a subject of concern in October
This latest perturbation occurred in the western Caribbean, one of the areas that can be a hot spot for the development of a tropical cyclone at this time of year.
Although the peak of the hurricane season – September 10th – has passed, the Atlantic Basin can still be busy with tropical activity in October and even November.
In October, the regions where tropical cyclones are most likely to form are closer to the United States and no longer to the east of the Atlantic.
These are the typical areas of development and traces of the tropical cyclones of the Atlantic Basin in October.
In particular, the western Caribbean Sea, the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the far west of the Atlantic Ocean must be the subject of close monitoring for tropical development in October.
The land is close to these areas, which means that if something is growing quickly, the impacts can be a big concern.
Since 1950, there have been 15 hurricanes in October in the United States.The hurricane season is not over yet.
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