The winners and losers of NAFTA 2.0

The United States, Canada and Mexico come from concluded a new commercial agreement after several months and tense negotiations rounds.

The pact, now known as the US-Mexican-Canadian Agreement (USMCA), will give US farmers better access to the Canadian dairy market and will require automakers to manufacture more parts of their vehicles in North America ( they do not want to pay the customs duties). .

President Donald Trump has announced his intention to sign the updated version of NAFTA by the end of November, which will then be submitted to Congress for approval.

"The factories were leaving, the jobs were going away, people were being fired," Trump said of NAFTA at a press conference at Rose Garden on Monday. "We have negotiated this new agreement based on the principle of fairness and reciprocity.For me, it's the most important word in the trade."

But these principles of "fairness" and "reciprocity" can be very different depending on the workers or industries you are talking about. Here is an overview of the beneficiaries and the disadvantaged by this new agreement.

Trump did not hide his disdain for NAFTA, the appellantheworst trade deal ever concludedand a job-killing "disaster" for the US (note that experts say NAFTA costs and creates jobs.)his new deal counts as a victory for Trump now that he has been able to amend the original agreement and convince Mexico and Canada to negotiate a new agreement.

The copyright period of the United States generally lasts 70 years after the death of the creator, that the new agreement will not change. But this agreement will now bring to 70 years the current term of copyright in Canada, which was 50 years after the life of the author, so that it conforms to the protections the United States.

The United States already tends to have a lot of copyright, according to Laura Dawson, director of the Wilson Center's Canada Center. Meanwhile, Canada and Mexico tend to focus more on consumer protection.

Type of. The main US stock indexes posted gains this morning, the Dow up more than 250 points (a gain of almost 1%). But Julia Coronado, economist and founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives, told us that, if this market upturn was probably a reaction to the deal, the pact itself "Unimpressive."

"This is a pretty close affair. There are many unresolved things, "she said. "It actually complicates some aspects of auto production and trade."

State farmers will have better access to Canada's dairy market now that Canada has agreed to give up Class 7 Rating Systemallowing Canadian processors to buy skim milk at lower prices from Canadian farmers.

"Nothing but good news for the American dairy industry. The price of Class 7 milk in Canada posed two different problems to US manufacturers, "he said. Eric Meyer, President of HighGround Dairy in Chicago. "First, it stopped the flow of ultra-filtered milk, a concentrated lean solid ingredient used to increase the protein content of cheese and yogurt made in Canada. Second, the price system allowed Canada to be competitive in exporting its excess skim milk powder, thereby reducing its market share in the United States. "

On the other side of the dairy market more open in Canada, the country's own farmers could be negatively affected. The Daily Farmers of Canada, an organization representing Canadian farmers, issued a statement critical of the deal, saying it would limit exports and force them to sell close to 3.6% of their dairy sector.

"We do not see how this agreement can benefit the 220,000 Canadian families who rely on dairy products for their livelihood," the group said.

The agreement will extend patents on biologic drugs, which include the drug Humira against Crohn's disease, from eight to ten years. Experts warn that it could be costly for the health system by driving up the price of generic drugs.

The agreement will allow car manufacturers to benefit from the zero tariff if 75% of the components of their cars are manufactured in the United States, Canada or Mexico (against 62.5% under NAFTA), and to improve the wages of the self-employed. But these partial requirements mean that companies might not be able to get them as freely, which could result in higher manufacturing costs. These costs could then be passed on to consumers in the form of higher car prices.

And do not forget that the Federal Reserve has simply raised interest rates, which can mean higher auto loans for you.