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The IPCC report says that at the current rate of global warming, global temperatures will likely reach 1.5 ° C between 2030 and 2052, after a 1 ° C increase from pre-industrial levels since the mid-1800s. .
Keeping the target 1.5 ° C would keep the global sea level rise by 0.1 meter (3.9 inches) lower by 2100 compared to a target of 2 ° C, indicates the report. This could reduce floods and give people on the world's shores, islands and deltas the time to adapt to climate change.
The lower goal would also reduce the loss and extinction of species and the impact on terrestrial, freshwater and coastal ecosystems, the report said.
"There were doubts as to whether we would be able to differentiate the impacts set at 1.5 ° C and this appeared so clearly.Some scientists were surprised at how much science was already present and at how much they could really differentiate and what benefits the benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5% versus 2%, "IPCC Vice President Thelma Krug told Reuters in an interview.
"And now more than ever, we know that every warming is important," said Krug.
The IPCC met last week in Incheon, South Korea, to finalize the report, prepared at the request of governments in 2015, to assess the feasibility and the importance of the limitation. global warming at 1.5 ° C.
The report is considered the main scientific guide for government decision makers on how to implement the 2015 Paris Agreement at the Katowice Conference on Climate Change in Poland in December.
To contain global warming at 1.5 ° C, global net emissions of artificial carbon dioxide (CO2) are expected to fall by about 45% by 2030 from 2010 levels and reach "net zero" "in the middle of the century. Any additional emissions would require removing CO2 from the air.
According to the report's summary, renewable energies are expected to provide 70% to 85% of electricity by 2050 to stay within 1.5ºC, compared to around 25% now.
Using carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, the share of energy produced from natural gas should be reduced by 8% and coal by less than 2%. There was no mention of oil in this context in the summary.
If the average global temperature temporarily exceeds 1.5 ° C, additional carbon removal techniques would be needed to bring warming to a temperature below 1.5 ° C by 2100.
However, the report indicates that the effectiveness of measures such as forest planting, the use of bioenergy or the capture and storage of CO2 has not been proven on a large scale and involves certain risks .
But failure to reach the 1.5 ° C target would bring tremendous change to the world. The lower level would mean that the Arctic Ocean would be free of sea ice in summer only once a century and not at least once a decade under the highest target. Coral reefs would still decrease by 70% to 90%, instead of being virtually destroyed by the largest increase.
"The report shows that we have only the thinnest possibilities to avoid unthinkable damage to the climate system that supports life as we know it," said Amjad Abdulla, IPCC Board member and negotiator. in chief of an alliance of small island states at risk. floods with rising sea levels.
