The Yankees believe that Luis Severino was tipping the scales on the side of ALDS, even though his fights are even more complex

Friday afternoon, a day before the Red Sox and Astros open the ALCS at Fenway Park, Yankees manager Aaron Boone and general manager Brian Cashman will give their annual end-of-season press conference at Yankee Stadium. New York has won 100 games this year, but a defeat of four games in the ALDS is described as a disappointing season.

Among the topics discussed, we will surely mention Boone and Cashman: Luis Severino. The Ace of the staff finished the regular season with a 3.39 ERA (£ 129) in 191 1/3 inning, which is obviously very good, even though it was about A two-part tale for Severino. He was awesome before the break from the stars and terrible afterwards.

Severino was one of the best baseball pitchers in the first half and one of the worst baseball pitchers in the second half. Exit and walking rates have remained stable, so that's fine, but home runs have jumped and Severino was easier to play in general. Severino's fade is one of the main reasons why the Yankees have chosen a wild card spot rather than pushing the BoSox for the AL East title.

In the playoffs, Severino was hit six times in seven innings in his two starts and, even during his four scoreless innings in the Wild Card Game, the Athletics forced him to work very hard. There were many long runs, which led to four equal strolls. Severino failed to capitalize on four innings without scoring a goal.

The Red Sox played a number on Severino in the third game of ALDS earlier this week, partly because Boone left it too long, but especially because Severino launched the practice of the stick. Boston beat him for six points in three innings and three batters. During the game, the TBS show seemed to surprise the Red Sox players calling Severino's fields from the canoe:

A short sequence does not prove that Severino was rocking his throws – players called pitchers throughout the year – but during his tough second half, Severino spoke a lot.

Jon Heyman of Fancred.com now reports that Yankees officials are convinced that Severino was tipping his pitch in the third game of ALDS. From Heyman:

"The Red Sox had their throws," said a Yankee member.

The Red Sox broadcaster, Lou Merloni, commented that he had noticed a tipping problem and that it seemed that the Red Sox hitters were able to put away the biting slider of Severino. At one point, NESN noticed that Jackie Bradley Jr. had pronounced "Fastball" on the bench against Mookie Betts on a 0-2 field against Brock Holt.

In the end, Severino seemed to be moving away from his cursor, so he might have doubted it. Severino lasted only four batters (and no outs) in the fourth, and many suggested that it should not have been as long as this one, in the 16-1 defeat. Yankees. The Yankees say they've heard the "chatter" from Red Sox people about tips, and they all seem to believe that there was something to be done.

Severino threw 15 sliders in the third game of ALDS and the Red Sox rocked to six, or 40%. The batters played 47.2% of the time on his slider in the regular season. It was 47.7% in the first half and 46.4% in the second half. For all intents and purposes, the strikers slammed Severino's slider at the same rate all season.

The Red Sox have played less often in Severino's slider in the third match of ALDS than the regular season hitters, but that then, it sounds more like a small noise than a sample. A final throw against the slider in the third match of the ALDS allows the Red Sox to reach a swing rate of 46.7%, which is quite consistent with the Severino season average .

It is quite possible that Severino will rock his throws in the third match of the ALDS and throughout the second half of the season. It would be a convenient excuse for its poor finish. Almost too practical, really, because there are other disturbing signs related to the performance of Severino. For example, its fast velocity:

Luis Severino lost speed during the 2018 season.

Brooks Baseball

Context is needed here. Severino's fastball averaged 98.3mph before the All-Star break and 97.6mph thereafter. This average average speed of 97.6 mph would still have been the highest average speed among newbie baseball pitchers this season. Severino led the MLB at 97.9 mph. Gerrit Cole was second at 97.0 mph.

That said, Severino saw his fastball dive to 0.7 mph in the second half, which is quite significant for a fall of speed in season. Each thrower loses speed over time. But what kind of dip in one season? Hmmm. It's a red flag.

In addition, Severino's slider lost some horizontal movement during the season. When he's right, his slider is a bad pitching pitch that keeps away from the right-handed hitters. This lateral movement was not quite there – or there – in the second half.

Luis Severino did not have his usual break on his slider in the second half.

Brooks Baseball

In addition to the reduced speed of the fastball and the horizontal movement of the slider, Severino's command also seemed to be suffering in the second half, though it is impossible to quantify that. (The speed is a control state, the control is the ability to launch strikes, the command is the ability to hit the corners, knees, etc. of quality.) He too often missed the plate.

In addition to all this, Severino may have tilted his lands. And again, it is quite possible that he has tilted his fields, both in the second half and during the ALDS 3 game. But there seems to be more activity here than just a reversal. Inclined inclinations would not explain speed and loss of movement, or lower than normal control. It seems that the Yankees and Severino have more to work here than a tell.

While an injury is always a possibility, keep in mind that Severino will not be 25 years old until February and has completed more than 400 innings in the past two seasons, many of which were intense during playoffs. The young man may have just hit a wall and needs an offseason to restart. Severino would not be the first young pitcher to fight a bit after throwing a ton of sleeves early in his career. Cole Hamels (4.32 ERA in 2009) and Justin Verlander (4.84 ERA in 2008) experienced a similar situation in their mid-twenties.

Whenever a very good thrower struggles for a prolonged period, the first thought seems to be that he rocks his throws. It's become a common excuse and almost a crutch. In the case of Severino, he might have switched to the third match of the ALDS. Absolutely. But there are other things happening here that could explain his difficulties and go beyond tips.