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By Erik Ortiz
A typical California wildfire season could begin in the middle of the summer and continue early in the fall.
Not this year. Maybe more now.
The state has already been besieged by two major forest fires during the first week of July and is currently battling three intense hells: the campfire, north of Sacramento, and the Woolsey and Hill fires , west of Los Angeles.
Experts take note of this emerging model of forest fires in the state, which involves so many lives, tens of thousands of homes and entire communities.
And it is about to get worse in a changing climate.
"It is not so bad that things get worse because global warming has warmed by a few degrees," said Daniel Swain, a climatologist at UCLA and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. "It's really a cumulative effect, in that it changes the landscape. You have longer periods of the year when you have these fires. We literally burn the candle at both ends. "
Swain said the California fire season did not peak in summer, as one might think, but in September and early October, following the dry season and preceeding the rainy season – a product of its Mediterranean climate.
In recent years, the drought that has ravaged large areas of California has essentially turned the state into a powder keg. Although the state of emergency was largely lifted for the drought in April 2017, rainfall remained well below average last winter and again this fall, Swain said.
If you combine that with the way California experienced its hottest month in July with a series of record heat waves, Mr. Swain said the state's vegetation had been left "tinned, tinned at dry".
"Climate change affects the dryness of vegetation," he added, "and that affects the speed with which fire spreads."
The winds of Santa Ana, which feed the coastal areas in hot and extremely dry air, are an additional source of fuel. Winds can wreak havoc in the fall.
On Friday, they are expected to blow up to 50 miles to the hour in the valley and coastal regions of southern California, where the Woolsey fire has forced large areas of the city from Malibu to Evacuate in the morning and led the Hill Fire to consume over 10,000 acres and close a section of the 101 Freeway.
But the most shocking, said Swain, was the fury of the campfire that swiftly broke out in Butte County, which quadrupled by Friday morning when he burned at least 8,000 acres. Officials said the city of Paradise, with a population of nearly 27,000, appeared to be almost destroyed, with cars and houses set on fire in an apocalyptic landscape.
"I'm not sure I've ever heard of an event like this," Swain said.
Five people were found dead in their vehicles in paradise, officials said Friday. Due to the severity of the burns, no identification was made immediately.
NBC News meteorologist, Kathryn Prociv, said it was unusual that a forest fire persists in northern California at a time of year when storms off the coast. The Pacific Ocean generally temper these conditions.
But all bets are opened after the lines have faded for how long the fire season lasts.
"Is this the new normal? It could very well be with the confluence of drier conditions and warmer conditions," said Prociv.
October was also the deadliest month for forest fires in the state, according to the California Department of Forests and Fire Protection, known as Cal Fire. Last year, the Tubbs fire turned homes located in the heart of the bucolic wine region of northern California into ash-covered shells and killed more than 20 people.
Prociv said that forest fires that struck during the summer usually affect forest areas with more sparse populations. But these fires in the late autumn, caused by the winds of Santa Ana, are approaching large population centers and putting more people in danger.
It also makes them more expensive financially. Property damage caused by the deadly forest fires of October 2017 exceeded $ 3.3 billion, state officials said.
Swain said officials need to start re-examining how and where homes are built in areas prone to forest fires.
"Often these homes are in desirable locations because you are surrounded by pretty views," said Swain. "But these are also high-risk areas, so these are the decisions we need to make – whether it's forest fires, floods or floods. storm – are we continuing to rebuild in these same places? "
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