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Karla Adam
London correspondent covering the United Kingdom
LONDON – Obtaining the unanimous agreement of 27 European heads of state for an agreement on Brexit was the easiest part. On Monday, British Prime Minister Theresa May turned to a far bigger challenge: winning the support of skeptical British legislators and their constituents.
A vote on the agreement in Parliament is scheduled for December 11, in the hope that Britain can leave the European Union in a "gentle and orderly" way in March. But the calculation does not seem to be on May's side. It needs 318 votes in the House of Commons for the agreement to pass. According to many estimates, he misses more than 60 votes.
"The odds are currently around zero, to speak frankly," said Jonathan Tonge, a professor of politics at the University of Liverpool.
He added that the passage would require "the biggest flogging operation you've ever seen in the Conservative Party". And even if the resistance within May's own party dissipated, she would need the support of some opposition lawmakers. The Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland, which supports May's minority government, is against the agreement.
May plans to present her arguments during an election campaign in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales over the next two weeks. She viewed her speech in Parliament on Monday.
May said that the Brexit withdrawal agreement, painstakingly negotiated for more than 17 months, was a bargain – and, most importantly, it was the only one on the table.
"There is no better offer available," she told lawmakers, adding that US leaders also insisted on this point.
"We can support this agreement, organize the referendum vote and build a brighter and more prosperous future for all our peoples," she said. Or, she said, lawmakers may reject the agreement and "go back to square one," exposing Britain "to more division and uncertainty, with all the risks that this will include ".
Dozens of legislators rose to denounce the plan.
Jeremy Corbyn, Leader of the Opposition Labor Party, told Parliament that the "failed" Brexit deal was "the worst of all worlds: no right to look at future rules or any certainty for l & # 39; future. "
He cited an estimate that the British economy would contract by 3.9% with the current agreement in place.
Opposition Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, at the center, urged lawmakers to vote against the May deal on Brexit. (Jessica Taylor / AFP / Getty Images)
"Labor is not stoic," added Corbyn. "It's an act of national self-harm."
Boris Johnson, Conservative MP and Brexiteer leader, who resigned as May's foreign secretary in July, said calling May's plan "unsatisfactory" would be an understatement.
"It's very difficult to see how this deal can bring certainty to businesses or anyone," he said.
The mid-term divorce agreement between May and May has angered the "leavers" and "remnants". The Brexiteers want a clean break with the European Union, and pro-Europeans think the deal is worse than the status quo.
In an intervention that did no favor to President Trump, President Trump told reporters on Monday that his agreement on Brexit "seemed like a boon to the EU."
"Right now, in the case, she might not – they could not – be able to trade with the United States. And I do not think they want that at all, it would be very negative for the agreement, "said Trump. , who previously said that Brexit is "a fantastic thing".
Downing Street replied by e-mail that "the policy statement we approved with the EU It is very clear that we will have an independent trade policy so that the UK can sign trade agreements with countries around the world – including with the United States.
"We have already laid the groundwork for an ambitious agreement with the United States through our joint working groups, which have already met five times," the statement said.
If the Parliament rejects this version of Brexit, Britain may leave the EU in March without any agreement, a"Catastrophic scenario" that could lead to ground planes, drug shortages and economic devastation.
Most political analysts predict that such a fate would be avoided. If May's deal is canceled and market chaos ensues, lawmakers may be willing to vote for it in a second round. Analysts draw parallels with the Troubled Asset Relief program, or TARP. The US Congress initially rejected a bailout of banks in 2008, and then passed it with some amendments after market panic.
Eurasia Group analyst Mujtaba Rahman said what would happen would depend on the size of the May defeat. In an information note, he predicted that if she lost the December 11 vote with a small margin, she would ask for changes from the US and aim for a second parliamentary vote, probably in January.
But a "heavy defeat" would increase the chances of other results. Britain could work with the US on a "managed without agreement" scenario or get European approval to extend the Brexit deadline beyond March. Some lawmakers are discussing a "Norway Plus" option that would allow Britain to join the European Free Trade Association, a federation of four countries. A second referendum on Brexit in Britain or general elections would also be possible.
Tonge said that if the proposal does not get support from Parliament, May's credibility will be in shambles because she is "so committed to the deal".
But May has proven time and again that she has the power to stay. It survived an attempted coup last week by eurosceptics who failed, at least for now, to convince legislators to launch a vote of no confidence against her.
When she was asked recently, in a telephone conversation on the radio, if she would resign if her contract was not concluded, May dodged the question.
"I am focusing on ensuring that this agreement is adopted by Parliament, because I believe it is absolutely the right agreement for the UK," she said.
Read more
Concerns about immigration motivated the vote on Brexit. Then the attitudes changed.
Here is what a Brexit could look like without agreement
What is Brexit? A guide for those who have just woken up in the political nightmare of Britain.
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