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A few days after the Senate Republicans installed Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court, President Trump and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell huddled at the White House to review the results of the election. a private poll revealing an increase in the popularity rate caused by the polarizing nomination.
Trump asked aloud at the meeting of October 9: how can we continue in this way? McConnell (R-Ky.) Replied that there was only one person able to do it: the president himself.
Since this conversation, confirmed by three people familiar with the session, Trump has organized a series of rallies in the Senate battlefield states – with plans for at least ten in the last six days of the campaign with the ballot box – and Republicans are increasingly confident about their prospects in the November 6 mid-term elections.
McConnell told his associates that the Republicans were well-positioned to hold the Senate and could stifle their narrow advantage by 51-49 from a few places, according to regulars in the talks, though the Kentuckian avoids accurate predictions.
Optimism marks a change from the beginning of September, when officials worried troubled candidates and considered the possibility of losing both houses of Congress.
Although Republicans still feel they are wasting their time holding the House to Trump's anger, especially in the suburbs, they feel they have sufficiently motivated voters in Trump's respectful areas to maintain the Senate, thanks to the rising popularity of the president and the indignation of the GOP against the Democratic Party. efforts to prevent the confirmation of Kavanaugh, who was accused of sexual misconduct.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) Appears with President Trump at a rally in Richmond, Kentucky (Andrew Harnik / AP)
"It looked pretty bad a few weeks ago, but I think it's better for us," said Sen. Orrin G. Hatch (R-Utah).
Republicans say they are well positioned to occupy a seat in North Dakota and are moving closer to another Missouri seat, where polls reveal a tight race. But struggles in the Upper Midwest and recent Florida concerns have raised questions about how many people they could add.
GOP strategists also believe they have taken advantage in Texas and Tennessee, two states that provoked nervousness earlier this year. Nevada and Arizona, which they also defend, are still vulnerable but are winnable, they said.
The President's political team is trying to stay flexible on his schedule as long as possible to allow polls, advance polls and other emerging data to identify Senate races, the House and Governors where it can maximize its impact, according to a person familiar with His political strategy, who, like other people interviewed for this article, spoke of the condition of anonymity to describe the private deliberations.
The GOP protects the majority of the Senate on a friendly ground. The Democrats are defending 26 seats, including 10 in the states won by Trump in 2016. The GOP defends only nine seats, including eight in the states that Trump won.
"They are not red states, they are not republican states. These are Trump states, "said White House political director Bill Stepien, noting that some of them had been disputed in previous presidential elections.
Under the leadership of Trump, Republicans sought to use the Kavanaugh's candidacy and the caravan of migrants headed to the US-Mexico border to boost their base in many of these states, while calling Democrats fierce extremists. and tolerant in matters of immigration.
Democrats have singularly focused on health care, accusing Republicans of wanting to defeat the Affordable Care Act and jeopardizing the protection of Americans with pre-existing medical conditions.
Both parties flooded the silver waves. They have invested about $ 173 million in Senate ads over the last two weeks of the campaign, according to estimates of people tracking ads' purchases, with Democrats accounting for a significant portion of the ads. money.
Democrats are moderating their expectations, acknowledging that they would probably not stand in North Dakota, but hoping that hasty races will take place elsewhere.
"If there was a big wave, we could bring back the Senate, if there was not one, we could lose seats with this difficult map, and if there were had a medium-sized wave, we would be close to where we are now, "Minority Senate Chief Charles E. Schumer (NY) said in a statement.
In North Dakota, Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp's campaign fought for months to rival Republican Representative Kevin Cramer. His chances came even longer after she apologized this month for an announcement that includes the names of victims of domestic violence, sexual assault or rape without their permission.
Nevertheless, Heitkamp, who voted against Kavanaugh, collected $ 12.4 million in the first 17 days of October, according to the federal financial accounts, a huge sum for a Senate candidate.
In Missouri, Senator Claire McCaskill (D) and Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) were locked in a close dispute in which Hawley emphasized his support for Kavanaugh and McCaskill decried his role in a lawsuit right to care and its protection of pre-existing conditions.
Senator Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) Was another prime target of Republicans, who sought to call him a liberal. A new advertisement from the American Chamber of Commerce shows his photo with images of Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) And Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).
Donnelly retaliated by recently airing an advertisement in which he states that he opposes calls for the abolition of immigration and customs legislation and supports the funding of the border wall of the United States. Trump.
The growing diversity of Florida has proven to be a challenge for Republicans. Governor Rick Scott (D) kept his distance from Trump as he sought to overthrow Sen. Bill Nelson (D), whose campaign had started slowly. Some great Republicans privately fear that Nelson will prevail, especially since Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum (D) is leading polls against former Congressman Ron DeSantis (R) in the governor's race.
"Governor Scott is in an extremely precarious situation because his fate could be determined by the governor's race: a momentum for Gillum or a misguided commentary from DeSantis," said Dan Eberhart, a fundraiser for Scott and DeSantis.
According to federal financial statistics, Scott has injected more than $ 23 million of his funds into the campaign this month, with a total personal investment of some $ 62 million.
Other states were even more disappointed for the GOP, which had once envisioned an absolute majority in the Senate of 60 votes.
In Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – all states were won by Trump – elected Democrats are strongly favored to be re-elected. In West Virginia, a Trump State won by 42 percentage points, GOP leaders are not optimistic about the defeat of Senator Joe Manchin III. Manchin was the only Democrat to vote for Kavanaugh's confirmation.
"The starting point of the card compared to today is fundamentally different," said Lauren Passalacqua, director of communications for the Democratic Senators Campaign Committee.
For much of the year, Democrats put pressure on Republicans in Texas and Tennessee. Representative Beto O'Rourke (D-Tex.) Raised record funds and attracted a large crowd. Former well-known governor Phil Bredesen (D) used his personal fortune to make a centrist speech in Tennessee and quickly took the lead in the polls.
But GOP leaders believe that Senator Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) And Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) Have improved their positions in recent weeks and are in a good position to keep their states in the hands of Republicans .
Republicans are less comfortable in Nevada, where Dean Heller is the only Republican senator to run for office in a state won by Hillary Clinton. Heller adopted Trump in his attempt to defeat Rep. Jacky Rosen. "Everything you touch turns into gold," said Trump's previous criticism to the president during a recent campaign.
Trump's dedication to using nicknames to attack his opponents in the 2016 election is evident in Nevada and elsewhere. He called Rosen "Wacky Jacky" at the rally and decried Donnelly as "Sleepin 'Joe."
Some other contests have attracted outside group spending in recent weeks. In Montana, the Republicans did not give up trying to overthrow Democratic Senator Jon Tester, although public polls showed him in the lead.
In New Jersey, a super Democratic National PAC has spent money to defend Sen. Robert Menendez (D), who escaped the conviction in a corruption lawsuit passed last year by the federal government . He is favored to win reelection.
While confidence in the holding of the Senate exists at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, the party recognizes that these elections could be difficult to predict. Two years ago, the Democrats thought they were about to win back the Senate majority and retain the White House, before suffering a crushing defeat on both fronts.
McConnell told his associates how Schumer had called him before the 2016 elections to tell him that he hoped that they would maintain good working relations with the New York Democrat as leader of the Senate. After the election, McConnell reminded Schumer. Yes, said McConnell, he hoped the two working relationships would be good.
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