These countries may soon have the longest life expectancy

New research predicts future life expectancies in 195 countries and territories around the world, and results for the United States are rather bleak.

In 2016, the United States ranked 43rd in the world, with an average life of 78.7 years. In 2040, Americans life expectancy should increase, but only 1.1 years, to reach 79.8. This leads the United States to drop rank to 64th.

The study, published in the international medical journal The Lancet, offers unique new information on the health status of countries around the world.

"The future of health in the world is not pre-ordained and there is a wide range of plausible trajectories," said Dr. Kyle Foreman, lead author of the study, in a communicated. "But if we see significant progress or stagnation depends on whether or not health systems are able to take into account the key factors of health." Foreman is director of data science at the Institute of Metrology and Health Evaluation (IHME) of the University of Washington.

Unlike the United States, China's life expectancy is expected to increase significantly over the next two decades. In 2016, it ranked 68th out of 195 countries, with an average life expectancy of 76.3 years. However, if health trends continue, it could reach 39th in 2040 with an average life expectancy of 81.9 years.

Japan currently ranks first in the world with an average lifespan of 82.9 years starting in 2016. The country is expected to fall to second place by 2040, with an average lifespan of 85.8 years.

Spain, currently in fourth place with an average lifespan of 82.9 years, is expected to earn nearly three years and reach first place by 2040.

The 10 countries with the highest average life expectancy forecast for 2040 are:

1. Spain – 85.8 years old
2. Japan – 85.7 years
3. Singapore – 85.4 years
4. Switzerland – 85.2 years
5. Portugal – 84.5 years old
6. Italy – 84.5 years
7. Israel – 84.4 years
8. France – 84.3 years old
9. Luxembourg – 84.1 years old
10. Australia – 84.1 years

The study also examines some of the conditions that shorten people's lives and predicts a significant increase in the number of deaths from noncommunicable diseases, including: Diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), chronic kidney disease and lung cancer. It also warns of worsening health problems related to obesity.

The researchers explain that the top five health factors that account for most of the future trajectory of premature death are: high blood pressure, high body mass index, high blood sugar, tobacco use, and consumption of alcohol. Air pollution ranked sixth.

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study, the authors established "best" and "worst" alternative forecasts and scenarios for life expectancy and mortality from 250 causes of death in 195 countries and territories. .

In the "best" scenario, all countries will probably experience at least a slight increase in life span. On the other hand, according to a worst case scenario, nearly half of the nations could face a lower life expectancy.

However, researchers believe that it is "very possible to alter the downward trajectory of health" by tackling key risk factors, education levels and per capita income.

"The range of" best "and" worst "scenarios allows stakeholders to examine potential changes to improve health systems at the local, national and global levels," said the director of the World Health Organization. IHME, Christopher Murray. "These scenarios offer new perspectives and help frame health planning."