"These numbers should sound the alarm for Bill Nelson"

Elections

A new poll shows that the Democratic senator from Florida is double-digited by older Hispanic voters.

Florida Governor Rick Scott holds a double-digit lead over Democratic Senator Bill Nelson among Hispanic voters aged 50 and over in a new poll in Florida, the latest sign that Nelson is fighting to rally Hispanic voters to his re-election.

Scott's support is backed by strong Cuban-American support and decent favorability ratings among Puerto Rican voters, who tend to support Democrats. Without a greater presence among Hispanic voters, Nelson is in danger in a Senate race essential to Democratic hopes of winning the Senate majority this fall.

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The 14-percentage-point advantage of the Republican governor among the older Hispanic voters in the Senate race sharply contrasts with the essentially related governors contest in which Republican Ron DeSantis has a slim 2-point lead over Democrat Andrew Gillum, according to the AARP / Bendixen Inquiry & Amandi International.

The disparity in results between the two statewide races reinforces what the Democratic activists have been worrying for months: Nelson is overwhelmed by Scott among Latino voters.

"Scott is leading Nelson in the Latin American communities of Florida," said Fernand Amandi, head of Bendixen & Amandi, echoing many Democrats, activists and insiders. "These figures should sound the alarm for Bill Nelson if he hopes to be re-elected against an opponent such as Scott, who spends more time doing media in Latin American communities.

"Rick Scott has been to Puerto Rico eight times, and he has done something on 25 events with Colombians, Cubans, Nicaraguans, Venezuelans and Puerto Ricans. He left no outstanding Hispanic vote, "Amandi said.

Put it all together, and Scott leads Nelson from 52% to 38% in the poll of 500 Florida Latino voters aged 50 and over. The margin of error is 4.4 percentage points. The latest general election poll in Florida showed Gillum slightly ahead of DeSantis, while Scott and Nelson were tied.

Overall, other surveys of the general Hispanic electorate of Florida, and not just those 50 and older, show that Nelson wins Florida Hispanic voters. But, not enough, says Amandi, to hold the winning coalition reunited by the last top democrat who won Florida: President Barack Obama.

Obama had massive support from Latinos and, most importantly, African-Americans to cover the loss of the white votes in 2012. Nelson was on the spot at the time and was mounting Obama's cattails while facing an adversary historically low.

Seniors aged 50 and over – as well as Florida voters in general – are essential because they tend to vote much more in larger proportions than younger ones.

In 2014, in previous mid-term elections in Florida, Hispanics aged 50 and over accounted for 58% of the Latino vote. About 16 percent of Florida's 13 million voters are registered as Hispanics.

The Amandi poll also has surprising results for those who do not know the particularities of Florida's Hispanic vote, largely divided between Republican-leaning Cuban-Americans in the Miami area and Puerto Rican Democrats who live mainly in the region. Orlando. Other non-Cuban Hispanics also tend to vote Democrats in Florida.

Due to the strong support of Cuban Americans, President Donald Trump is much more popular among Hispanics in Florida than those of other Amandi polls conducted for AARP in California and Arizona.

In the poll in Florida, 47% agree with Trump and 50% disagree with a net favourability rating of -3. Of the US-Cuban respondents, Trump's strong favorability is +35, but it is -40 among Puerto Ricans, who are outraged by his administration's poor response to Hurricane Maria and his dispute over the official record. of 3,000 people. Trump's decision to say on Monday that he is an "absolute no" to the creation of a state for Puerto Rico should also bring down his numbers and could hurt more Scott and DeSantis, fear Republicans.

Nelson's campaign began to air a Spanish advertisement showing how close Trump is to Scott, who chaired a super PAC for the president and who Trump encouraged to run for the Senate.

Scott began to seriously penetrate the community of Boricua by welcoming the evacuees of Hurricane Maria after the storm had devastated the island. Democrats point out that Scott has largely considered the distribution of federal funds and that the GOP-led legislature has relatively little open pocketbook to help evacuees while searching for an affordable housing trust fund.

Yet Scott's gambling book has borne fruit and he is leading Nelson from 47% to 42% of Florida's oldest Puerto Rican voters, although the small sample size for this population is small.

Gillum, meanwhile, is ahead of 58% to 33% among Puerto Rican voters in his clash against DeSantis, said Amandi.

DeSantis and Scott both have their biggest margins on their Democratic rivals among the Cuban-Americans, who support Scott 67% to 23% – a margin of 44 points – and support DeSantis on Gillum from 62% to 23% in the poll. Hispanic respondents whose heritage is from Mexico or South and Central America support Nelson and Gillum by wide margins.

In terms of net favourability ratings, Scott's is 70 percentage points among Cuban Americans, compared to -9 for Nelson; it is 19 points among Puerto Rican respondents, against 27 for Nelson; and 18 points among the other Latinos against 38 for Nelson.

Overall, Scott's net favorability is 31 points, almost double that of Nelson (16). Only 9% said they did not know Scott, more than double 20% for Nelson – a clear sign that Scott is becoming better known and loved among Hispanic voters older than Nelson.

In the governor's race, DeSantis' net favourability rating among the Cuban-Americans is 34 percentage points, compared to -15 for Gillum; DeSantis is -9 points among Puerto Ricans, against 27 for Gillum and -4 points in other Latinos against 25 for Gillum.

So why is Gillum doing so much better against DeSantis than against Nelson versus Scott?

"The variable is Scott's most effective campaign," said Amandi. "These numbers reflect Scott's hard work, dedicating time, effort and resources to cultivating Hispanic voters in Florida. This shows."