Threatening the military force is not helpful.

On Tuesday morning, President Trump faced a difficult crowd at the UN General Assembly. His speech, a furious defense of his unique vision of the world written by his adviser Stephen Miller, caused some skepticism and sometimes laughter. Trump touted the apparent progress in negotiations with North Korea over the past year, criticized Iran and, of course, he welcomed him. Nevertheless, Trump managed to gain something in his radical interpretation of the global political scene: the Venezuelan crisis has become a "human tragedy".

A country endowed with the largest oil reserves in the world, Venezuela was ruled for half a decade by Nicolás Maduro, the chosen successor of former strongman Hugo Chávez, who died of cancer in March 2013 at the age of 58. Corruption and economic recklessness have plunged Venezuela into a spiral of hyperinflation, chronic shortages and extreme poverty. The country's once prodigious oil production has fallen to its lowest level in 30 years, while its budget deficit is currently at 20% of GDP. Since 2014, more than 2.3 million people have fled the country, including many Venezuelan professionals. Within the borders of Venezuela, the tragedy has reached dantesque proportions. Power outages are common, diseases that have long been thought to have been eradicated have returned, and multitudes of children are dying of malnutrition. Caracas, the once bustling capital, is now invaded by a horrible crime. Venezuela itself began to look like a narco-state, with drug trafficking growing at an alarming rate. Even the waters of the country, once the mecca of tourism, are now invaded by pirates of modern times! As Venezuela's renowned intellectual and trade minister, Moisés Naím, says, Venezuela faces "the worst humanitarian crisis in the Western Hemisphere in the 21st century.^st century and one of the worst in the history of Latin America.

So, yes, Trump is right: Venezuelans need help and they need it now. What they do not need is the kind of help that Trump currently offers.

Venezuela faces the worst humanitarian crisis in the Western Hemisphere in the 21st centuryst century and one of the worst in the history of Latin America."

Tuesday, after the US Treasury announced new sanctions against the Venezuelan regime, including the first lady Cilia Flores, Trump once again launched the idea of ​​a military coup to bring down Maduro. "Frankly, it's a regime that could be overthrown very quickly by the military if the military decided to do it," Trump said. This corresponds to a pattern. On Monday, a few hours before Trump's vote in Venezuela at the General Assembly, a report by Axios quoted Fernando Cutz, a former director of the National Security Council for South America, who suggested that the administration Trump lead to a US military action against the Maduro regime. According to another report recently published in the New York Times, the administration organized "secret meetings" with former members of the Venezuelan armed forces, determined to force the exit of Maduro. Senator Marco Rubio, spokesman for Latin America in the Senate, also seems open to the idea of ​​military intervention as the only way to solve the Venezuelan nightmare.

The Trump administration should walk slightly. The United States has a long history of interventionism in the region, mostly with disastrous and sometimes despicable results. In some cases, it has given authoritarian regimes the opportunity to blame US sanctions (and actions) for the consequences of their disastrous policies. It is quite possible that a unilateral coup attempt reinforces the Maduro regime and weakens America's legitimacy in a region that has been wounded many times in the past. Cutz recognized this in his recent appearance at the Wilson Center, where he was quoted by Axios: "Will the United States only be able to repair Venezuela if we do it? Yes, absolutely, because then everyone in the region, everyone in Venezuela, will point to the United States and say, "This is your mess." He is right.

Moisés Naím said that any discussion of US military action against the Maduro regime "can not be taken seriously without absolute clarity as to who would be responsible for the necessary work before and after such an intervention." carefully considered what would happen immediately after the fall of Maduro. "Once he's gone and the military disbanded, the country would fall into the hands of anarchic gangs and heavily armed," he warns.

Hector Schamis, a Georgetown professor who writes about Latin America for the Spanish newspaper El País, agrees. Schamis told me that the situation after a coup d'etat would be "unpredictable because there is so much discomfort within the armed forces".

What can the Trump administration do to put pressure on the deadly Venezuelan regime without taking on another costly and potentially disastrous military intervention?

Naím believes that the United States could mitigate the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela by "letting refugees enter the country. Give them visas and green cards. Other countries in Latin America are already facing the consequences of Venezuelan mass emigration. Regional experts have recently suggested that Latin America formally declares a "regional refugee crisis" in the Cartagena Declaration on Refugees, offering Venezuelans literally fleeing for their lives a place where they can return peacefully to their ravaged homeland. . Another multilateral effort involves a group of Latin American countries – plus Canada, in a first for Ottawa – that will ask the International Criminal Court to investigate the Maduro regime.

Meanwhile, said Naím, the administration should continue to suffocate the Maduro government. "Impose sanctions on leaders and their friends: henchmen, partners, frontmen, family members, lovers," he said. "They should attack the ecosystem of the regime". Schamis agrees, but offers a serious warning: the Trump administration and the international community should "punish and apply intense pressure until all diplomatic options are exhausted." me, all the options should be on the table. "We must prevent genocide before it happens."