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BERLIN – Chancellor Angela Merkel's decision to step down from her party's presidency this week has launched a race whose outcome will shape Germany's political orientation.
Three candidates threw their hats into the ring, all described as being more conservative than Merkel. Others may join later – or retire – but the winner, chosen by the party's delegates at a convention in early December, will likely be the next candidate of the Christian Democratic Union at the Chancery.
Their styles and the nuances of their politics could have different consequences for the largest German party: reaffirming the CDU as a centrist force attracting many voters and able to form coalitions with virtually every other party or reform it as a More conservative force recapture of lost voters to the right alternative for Germany.
"It's up to the person who wins," said Tilman Mayer, professor of political science at the University of Bonn.
After the bitter defeats of its conservative parties in this month's parliamentary elections and a poor performance in last year's general elections, Merkel has faced growing resistance from the CDU to her policies. She was also blamed for the chaotic start of the current coalition government, which has almost collapsed twice since the end of June, due to differences of views on migration issues.
Merkel said Monday that she intended to remain chancellor until the next general election scheduled for 2021. On Tuesday, she predicted that her authority on the international scene would remain unchanged.
"At best, I might even have more time to focus on my role as head of government," she told reporters in Berlin.
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But many analysts believe that the momentum triggered by this announcement could precipitate a change of government before 2021. Similarly, a diminished Chancellor could find it difficult to make difficult decisions, including Brexit and a possible reform of the euro area, which would incite Germany to give itself a new leader with a new mandate.
The three candidates want to put an end to the exodus of voters that has damaged the position of the CDU since the elections last year and, more generally, put an end to the erosion of political current and the rise in power anti-establishment institutions.
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer was the first to declare it. The former Prime Minister of Saarland and the current secretary general of the CDU have good relations and are very popular within the party. While the 56-year-old is a close ally of Merkel, her social-conservative standpoint – she opposes same-sex marriage – has seduced her by the traditionalist base of the CDU.
Nevertheless, Ms Kramp-Karrenbauer, described as "mini-Merkel" by critics, would clearly defend continuity, said some analysts, contrary to the clear break with the Merkel era for which the conservative wing of the CDU, in particular, claims.
She "has always been in the shadow of Ms Merkel," said Nils Diederich, professor of political science at the Free University of Berlin, "which would not necessarily serve him to his advantage."
Other experts noted that Ms Kramp-Karrenbauer's links with the Chancellor would allow her to reproduce one of her main assets, her appeal to voters of all colors, which allowed her to stay in power. Even today, Mrs. Merkel's approval ratings, close to 50%, would be the envy of most western leaders.
Mrs Kramp-Karrenbauer declined to comment.
The second candidate, Jens Spahn, 38, is perhaps the most polarizing of the three. Currently Minister of Health and rising star of the party's conservative wing, he was one of the very first internal critics of Merkel's decision to open borders to hundreds of thousands of refugees in 2015 – the decision that triggered the decline of its political influence.
Mr. Spahn, who could not be contacted, called for tougher security policies and wants to revisit legislation that grants dual citizenship to children of foreign parents. He is personally close to other conservatives declared in Europe, including Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz and US Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell.
Alexander Gauland, the AfD's parliamentary leader, told n-tv this week: "We must be careful that Jens Spahn's positions do not distract voters from us."
The third declared candidate, Friedrich Merz, 62, was once a darling of the conservative wing of the CDU. As the leader of the CDU in Parliament, he took a favorable view of tax reduction and the market that made it popular with businesses. But a clash with Merkel after her accession to the party's presidency led to her gradual exit from politics in the past decade.
Her conservative profile and her opposition to multiculturalism might appeal to voters who rejected Merkel's centrist course.
"There is no more suitable candidate than Friedrich Merz," said Hans-Olaf Henkel, former president of the influential German BDI federation and former vice president of the AfD. "With Friedrich Merz at the helm, the CDU could soon recover and the AfD could be cut in half."
Critics fear that his fortune and his commercial ties – a senior business lawyer, he currently heads the supervisory board of the German unit of asset management firm BlackRock Inc. – could offer his opponents too much ammunition in a context of growing fervor.
A CDU led by Mr. Merz could also have trouble forming coalitions with center-left parties, which may well be the case for staying in power, said Frank Decker, a professor of political science at the university. Friedrich Wilhelms University of Bonn.
Mr Merz wrote on Tuesday that he wanted to shoulder his responsibilities "and do everything possible to strengthen the internal cohesion and sustainability of the German CDU".
-Stefan Lange
contributed to this article.
Write to Andrea Thomas at [email protected]
