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- Three tropical cyclones could affect US states or territories next week.
- It is unusual to have American tropical threats in the Pacific and Atlantic at the same time.
- There is still a lot of uncertainty about how each event could unfold.
A rare configuration in the tropics could lead to three hurricane storms affecting parts of the US and its territories next week, and possibly a fourth over the next weekend. The scope of these potential threats extends from the western Pacific to the Caribbean to the east coast of the United States.
The systems are:
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Tropical Storm Florence, located in the middle of the North Atlantic on Friday. Florence is expected to turn into a major hurricane and there is an increasing chance that it will reach the east coast of the United States by the middle of next week.
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Hurricane Olivia, located about 1,600 miles east of Honolulu, Hawaii. Again a Category 3 hurricane Friday morning, Olivia has weakened and this trend is expected to continue. However, Olivia will continue to move west or west-southwest and is expected to be close to the chain of islands around Wednesday.
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A tropical depression in the western Pacific called Mangkhut. Computer models recognize that Mangkhut will quickly turn into a powerful typhoon. Mangkhut should approach Guam, possibly as a category 3 or higher equivalent, Tuesday, local time.
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A disturbance called Invest 92L in the eastern tropical Atlantic. 92L is expected to cross the tropics next week and could reach the Eastern Caribbean during a hurricane or tropical storm next weekend. It is possible that this system will ultimately affect the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, although there is still a great deal of uncertainty in its trajectory and strength.
(PLUS: Hurricane Central)
Eric Blake of the National Hurricane Center says on Twitter how unusual it is for tropical cyclones to be hit by large-scale threats in the United States in such a short time.
Each of these 1992 storms was a major landing.
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Hurricane Andrew is shot down on Florida just south of Miami as a Category 5 storm on August 24th. Andrew's strength at landing went from category 4 to category 5 after an assessment in 2004.
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On August 28th, Typhoon Omar struck the US territory of Guam as a Category 3 storm. Omar destroyed some 2,000 houses in Guam, injured more than 200 people, and inflicted $ 457 million damage National Service Bureau weather.
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Hurricane Iniki hit the Hawaiian island of Kauai as a Category 4 storm on September 11th. Iniki was the strongest hurricane by far known to have landed in Hawaii. Iniki was also the most damaging hurricane in Hawaii, with some 1,400 homes destroyed and damage totaling $ 3.1 billion (1992 US dollars). Six deaths have been reported.
Threats next week: a variety of confidence levels
Among the possible threats next week, there is a very great confidence in Olivia's approaching Hawaii towards Wednesday, but the hurricane will weaken and will not maybe a tropical storm at that time. According to NOAA, only two hurricanes and two tropical storms have hit Hawaii in the last 60 years..
It is increasingly likely that Florence will affect the east coast of the United States as a powerful hurricane by the end of next week. However, there are still several scenarios, including the possibility that Florence just stays off the coast.
There is a great deal of confidence that Mangkhut will become a powerful typhoon, and models are in agreement that his track will pass over or near Guam.
Models agree that Invest 92L will be a hurricane by the middle of next week, but this is not at all certain. There is also considerable uncertainty as to whether 92L will reach the Caribbean or perhaps recurve before that time.
How can there be so many strong storms in so many places?
The usual pattern of the hurricane season in the northern hemisphere is that one part of the tropics is more active, while another part is calmer. For example, the El Niño years tend to produce greater tropical activity in the northeastern Pacific and less in the Atlantic, unlike the La Niña years.
Another factor is the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which has a large area of upward motion that straddles the equator and travels around the globe every 40 to 60 days or so. When the MJO is in a position to encourage movement and hurricanes in the Pacific, it generally suppresses activity in the Atlantic and vice versa.
Because of these factors, it is unusual to have active periods simultaneously on the Atlantic and the Northeast, Central and Northwest Pacific. However, it is still possible that a strong hurricane develops even where El Niño / La Niña or the MJO are in an unfavorable state.
Currently, the tropical Pacific is neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña are in place) and the MJO is relatively weak. This could help pave the way for major storms in the Pacific and Atlantic at the same time.
The warm temperatures of the ocean, especially those exceeding 80 degrees Fahrenheit, are another element that favors large scale tropical activities. Sea surface temperatures are currently above average in large parts of the tropics and subtropics in the northern hemisphere.
The remarkable coincidence of next week is also simply a bad geographical chance. Guam, Hawaii, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands are all small islands, whose area is limited by the size of the surrounding oceans. As a result, the odds that a hurricane or typhoon will affect them in a few days are exceptionally low.
With this in mind, any of the issues mentioned above could still escape the direct impact of a hurricane or typhoon next week. However, it is not excluded that we have tropical watches or warnings at the same time for Guam, Hawaii and the US East Coast around Tuesday.
It will be several days later before a hurricane or tropical storm emerging from 92L has a chance to affect the Caribbean islands.
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