Time bomb on Britain's health: pressure increases as the elderly population soars | UK | New

And although we live longer, that does not make good reading.

Public health officials fear that a crisis is looming, projections suggesting that there will be more than two million people aged 85 or older by 2031, putting a strain on the social protection system.

The new data provide insights into health in England, but the situation is broadly similar across the UK as services become aware of the consequences of poor health.

Dementia and Alzheimer's disease are already the leading cause of death among women, but by 2020, heart disease could become the leading cause of death among men, reveals the health profile of Public Health England.

It is estimated that the number of people with type 2 diabetes, a fatal but preventable disease linked to obesity and unhealthy living conditions, is expected to increase by one million to five million by 2035.

Millions of us now live with chronic lower back and neck pain, the two leading causes of poor health for both men and women, and almost a fifth between 16 and 64 years old have at least one problem common mental health, such as depression or anxiety.

Life expectancy is now 79.6 years for men and 83.2 years for women.

But in the richest regions, people enjoy 19 years more in good health than the poorest.

Dr. Ian Campbell, a NHS GP in Nottingham for more than 30 years, said, "The writing has been on the wall for years.

"Decades of worsening socio-economic inequality, unhindered access to food and unhealthy food choices, and increasing alcohol consumption – at a time when we are actually living longer – have led to unprecedented demand for food. health services.

"We could live longer, but we live with multiple medical problems, each with its own complexity and each requiring more of the NHS 'already limited resources. Something must give.

Professor John Newton, Director of Health Improvement at PHE, warned, "The NHS needs to respond faster than at any point in its history and focus on preventing and treating the diseases that cause the most diseases. "

DIABETES

The number of people with diabetes will increase from one million to five million by 2035.

Most will develop Type 2, a life-threatening but preventable disease, caused by chronically unhealthy lifestyles, obesity and sugar.

Twelve million people are at risk of developing type 2 today.

Diabetes now costs more than £ 10 billion a year to treat – 10% of the total NHS budget.

The number of children currently treated for type 2, which is normally only observed in adults, has increased by 40% in four years.

Ten years ago, no British child suffered from the disease, but figures from the Royal College of Pediatrics and Child Health show that 715 people under 25 were treated in England and Wales, including 78, 6% were obese.

The figures for 2016/17 represent a 41% increase on the 507 cases recorded in 2013/14.

More than two-thirds of men and nearly six in ten women are overweight or obese.

About 160,000 people die each year from heart and circulatory diseases.

It is now thought that seven million people in England are living with cardiovascular disease, which costs the NHS 9 billion pounds a year.

One in four adults has high blood pressure, but another 5.6 million live with the undiagnosed killer state.

DEMENTIA

Dementia and Alzheimer's disease, combined, could be the deadliest in Britain by 2020 and beat heart disease as the leading cause of death among men, as it already does in women.

In the UK, there are currently 850,000 people with dementia, 500,000 of whom have Alzheimer's disease.

About 10% of people over the age of 65 and one in three over the age of 85 are already suffering from this disease.

And by 2050, two million people will live with dementia.

As the Daily Express reported yesterday, leading scientists at the Dementia Research Institute at University College London and five British universities are working to create the first effective treatment against the greatest health threat of our time.

Sally Copley of the Alzheimer Society said, "We have long insisted that dementia should be the biggest cause of death in the 21st century.

"What makes this phenomenon more worrying is that it is the only major cause of death that we can not cure, prevent or even slow down.

"We need to realize that not only will more people die from this condition, but that they will experience a lot more dementia.

"They will all need quality social care from skilled professionals who do not waste their money and force them to sell their homes."

WOMEN

Women's health is low compared to the rest of Europe.

Britain ranks 18th out of 28 EU Member States for premature deaths among women, with men being slightly better ranked 10th.

For women, the burden of cardiovascular disease – measured by the effect on lifespan – is the ninth lowest in the EU, much lower than average, and 49% higher than France.

With regard to cancer, the United Kingdom ranks 23rd, the burden of premature deaths being much higher than the EU average and 42% higher than that of Spain, where the mortality is the lowest.

In men, the burden of cardiovascular disease ranks the UK 10th, which is significantly below the EU average.

In terms of cancer, the UK ranks eighth, with the burden well below the EU average, but 31% higher than Finland, the least populated country.

British women rank lower than men across the EU for a wide range of pathologies with the greatest difference in cancer.

The best performers are Luxembourg, Sweden, Spain and Italy.

About 360,000 people in the UK are diagnosed with cancer each year, while one in seven men and one in 12 women die from coronary artery disease.

Breast cancer survival has doubled in the past 40 years, with nine out of ten women surviving the disease for five years or more.

However, there are still 11,400 casualties each year in the UK.

BACK ACHE

Each year, one in five consults with their treating physician about a musculoskeletal problem. Millions of people suffer from lower back and neck pain.

The conditions affect the joints, bones, muscles, nerves, ligaments and tendons of the body and include disabling autoimmune diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis.

In 2016, they accounted for 22.1% of the total burden of disease in England.

According to one analysis, the proportion of people reporting a long-term problem increased from 17.2% in 2014/15 to 16.5% in 2016/17.

But health leaders can not say whether there is a true reduction in prevalence, or simply fewer patients reporting their conditions to doctors.

Conditions such as osteoarthritis, caused by wear and tear of the joints, become more common with age.

In total, 42% of patients with symptoms were 85 years of age or older.

Conditions affect slightly more women than men.

If they become chronic or long-term, musculoskeletal disorders are recognized as a significant decrease in quality of life.

They are also associated with many other debilitating health problems, including diabetes, anxiety, depression and obesity.

About 30% of people with long-term musculoskeletal disorders suffer from mental health problems, which can worsen conditions that are difficult to treat, such as chronic pain.

TO LIVE LONGER

In 2017, the number of people aged 85 or older in England – 1.35 million – was three times higher than in 1971.

By 2023, this figure is expected to reach 1.54 million and by 2031 it could reach 2.01 million.

This is significant because the probability of developing chronic diseases requiring 24-hour care increases with age, with the prevalence of dementia doubling every five years above 65 years.

Life expectancy at birth is now 79.6 years for men and 83.2 years for women, but since 2011, the rate of increase in life expectancy has slowed down for both sexes.

Men can expect to live 63.3 years in good health and women 63.9 years.

Between 2014 and 2016, men lived 16.2 years in poor health and women 19.3 years.

In 2016, the leading cause of death for men was heart disease, accounting for 13.6% of all deaths.

For women, it was dementia and Alzheimer's disease – 15.8% of all deaths.

Reduced improvements in heart disease mortality rates, coupled with an increase in dementia mortality, have contributed most to the decline in the rate of improvement in life expectancy since 2011.

COMMENTARY from Dr. Ian Campbell

NHS GP In Nottingham

This report is not surprising – the writing is on the wall for years.

Worsening socioeconomic inequalities for decades, unhindered access to food and unhealthy food choices, and increased alcohol consumption at a time when we are actually living longer have led to unprecedented demand for health services.

We could live longer, but we live with multiple medical problems, each with its own complexity and each requiring more and more limited NHS resources.

Something must give.

The problem we face is that for decades we have focused on treating diseases rather than preventing them.

Our NHS is a treatment service, and while the results of preventative measures take a while to develop, they are more productive, more economical and more equitable.

In these days of limited resources, we would, in short, have a better return.

I know that my patients have choices, that we have a personal responsibility to ourselves, our children and our society to make better and healthier choices.

But as a physician interested in the health of the nation as a whole, I know we also deserve the support of the government.

Limit access to unhealthy food and business policies, restrict advertising to children, make our communities safer for children to play outside, make "active travel" (walking and using public transport) easier, cheaper and more convenient.

We must make healthy choices the easiest choices, but this will only happen when the government – local and national – takes the lead, assumes its responsibilities and makes them real.

As individuals, we can only achieve as much.

We must work together to create a healthier, safer and more equitable society.

If we want to respond appropriately to the warnings in the PHE report about our future, there is no other realistic choice.