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Iranian President Hassan Rouhani travels to Switzerland and Austria this week with the historic nuclear deal negotiated in the two outstanding Alpine countries.
State visits to Bern on Tuesday and Vienna on Wednesday will likely be the latest in Rouhani Iran has promised to resume nuclear activities and follow the United States, unless France, the United States Germany and the United Kingdom offer guarantees for investment and trade to continue. Austria has just assumed the rotating presidency of the European Union
"The stakes are many: trade wars, reputation and European security," said Paul Ingram, executive director of British American Security Information Council, which promotes global nuclear disarmament. . "Rouhani will have to squeeze Europeans for special commitments beyond warm words, and communicate his own limited domestic ability to stick to the JCPOA if Europeans give in to US pressure."
The Joint Action Plan, July 2015 Trump's decision of May 8 to leave the country, even as international inspectors continued to verify that the Rouhani government was living up to its commitment, plunged into crisis following the lifting of many sanctions. The United States accuses Iran of violating the spirit of the agreement by destabilizing activities in the Middle East
Iran Abides Deal
Nuclear Stocks Below the Required Levels for a Weapon
Source: IAEA Iran Reports
Rouhani's trip lays the foundation for a ministerial meeting of six remaining JCPOA parties this month in the Austrian capital, where officials from China and Russia are expected to join to their European counterparts. According to Ellie Geranmayeh, senior member of the European Council of Foreign Relations, this meeting should give substance to a set of economic measures designed to protect American sanctions
"The difficulty of concluding a contract highlights the weaknesses of the situation. European independent trade policy, "said Geranmayeh." Iranians know that there is no quick fix. "
For the Iranian government, which is already trying to contain the growing anger of public facing the management of a monetary crisis, the stakes are high.Last week, Rouhani sought to prepare his people for harder times, saying that they could survive all the difficulties. [19659002"WewillnotsurrendertoAmericawewillprotectourhistoricdignity"saidRouhaniinatelevisedspeech"WemustshowtheworldthatwetolerateIndifficulttimeswewilltoleratedifficultiesbutwewillnotnegotiateourindependenceourfreedomorourfaith"
On Monday, he declared that Iran was expecting from the European nations that they a package [19659014] to save the case in the "coming days."
Sanctions Impact
Trade is recovering after the EU oil embargo in 2012
Source: Compiled Data by Bloomberg
Iranian oil revenues and banking links will be at stake if neither of them can be protected by the EU. Rouhani, who faces intense pressure from conservative extremists at home who accuse him of being naive to trust the United States, would be unmotivated to stay in agreement and respect its terms and conditions.
in Vienna, which gives access to Iran to the management of transport and water, according to the Austrian press agency . His Austrian counterpart, Alexander Van der Bellen, told APA that "the EU will continue to work for the continuation of the nuclear deal as long as Iran keeps its commitments".
Proposals to allow European finance to circumvent US sanctions met the skepticism of EU states, which are also trying to negotiate trade disputes with the Trump administration that could threaten US exports worth more than $ 435 billion. In comparison, Iran is the 66th largest trading partner of the Union with less than $ 24 billion worth of goods traded, according to data compiled by Bloomberg
"There is a lot of fear of it." a world in which the US dollar could be undermined. "said Laura von Daniels, who follows the transatlantic finances for the German Institute of International Affairs and Security." It's not as if the public German had vocalized by wanting that Angela Merkel guard the JCPOA, while they want it to act against auto tariffs. "
US Sanctions are reinstated in two steps |
Aug 6 |
4 November |
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| Source: White & Case; Note that this list is not exhaustive |
– With the help of Golnar Motevalli, and Jade Cano
( Updates with chords in the eleventh paragraph. )
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