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Thursday night's game this week features one of the best clashes of the season, as the Panthers head to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers in a two-game losing streak. Bettors flocked to the Panthers; After Westgate opened the line at Steelers -6.5 on Sunday night, they quickly dropped to 5.5 in two hours and at noon on Monday, the Steelers were down to -4 on the board. On Wednesday, the line made another step forward to the Panthers, a lot of books making Steelers -3.5.
It's almost as if no one has watched a Thursday game this season. The favorites are 7-2 Away in Thursday games this season, and the two losses are accompanied by two caveats: one is the Rams, which was ranked favorite at 7.5 points against the Vikings before wagering by seven. However, Rams -7 was available almost all week, and you probably insisted if you had established the points in this one. The second game of last week, as the line went from 49ers to -2.5 to Raiders -1.5 on Thursday, after the announcement of the absence of C.J. Beathard. But Nick Mullens has proved equally capable of driving through the defense of the Swiss Raiders cheese.
If you want to follow the trend that has generally paid off on Thursday, you want to be on the side of the favorites. With the Steelers, that means they have a better value than a few days ago.
If you want to know what sides of the week you like, you'll find this information on the SportsLine link below, where all my games played during the season, as well as my five SuperContest choices every week and many quality analyzes from a fantastic collection of experts. You can also check where all the CBS Sports staff come in every week here.
Every week in this space, I'll go behind the lines and selections to dive deeper into what you should know before locking your pieces. Let's go.
My choices
At SportsLine, I have a choice of Thursday for the 10th week and I will have a lot more here Friday night. Sign up now and use the WHITE promo code for $ 1 the first month. You will be able to choose my choice and that of all SportsLine experts throughout the year, as well as my choice of SuperContest every Saturday.
However, you can get a free choice with my teaser of the week at the end of this article. Enjoy!
Panthers at Steelers (-3,5)
Advantage of the ground of attachment: 2.5 points
Power Line: Steelers -3.5
Early search line: Steelers -6
| Record vs propagation | 5-3 | 5-3 |
| Difference of yards per game | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Points per rank of attack | 7 | 12 |
| Ranking by points of defense | 20 | 14 |
| Weighted DVOA | 24.5 | 10.4 |
| DVOA classification violation | 6 | 8 |
| DVOA rank defense pass | 20 | 22 |
| Run offense DVOA rank | 1 | 12 |
| Run defense DVOA rank | 7 | 14 |
DVOA is a big fan of this Panthers team, as it ranks 3rd overall in the league thanks to a solid 6-2 lead. The game-by-yard differential is reversed, giving the Steelers the advantage with a fifth-to-per-try defense and one-ninth to the allowed yardage.
What does DVOA find so impressive? The advanced attack, combined with the league's sixth best pass attack, will give you a high enough ceiling, but the traditional numbers do not paint a pretty rosy picture of the passing game, which ranks 13th in the attempt ranking and only has a 300 yard game all season. If the rushed attack does not work in Carolina, the offensive can get in trouble and the Steelers have not yielded 100 yards rushing since the second week.
So which teams should you return to the 10th week of the NFL season? And which competitor of the Super Bowl is scary? Now check out SportsLine to see which teams win more than 50% of the simulations, all from the model that outperformed 98% of the experts that NFLPickWatch.com has followed in the past two seasons.
Jet bills (-6.5)
Base field advantage: 3.5 points
Power Line: Jets -6.5
Lookahead line: Jets -7
| Record vs propagation | 3-6 | 3-6 |
| Difference of yards per game | -1.1 | -0.2 |
| Points per rank of attack | 32 | 28 |
| Ranking by points of defense | 21 | 3 |
| Weighted DVOA | -39.2 | -14.3 |
| DVOA classification violation | 32 | 29 |
| DVOA rank defense pass | 3 | 6 |
| Run offense DVOA rank | 31 | 30 |
| Run defense DVOA rank | ten | 11 |
My power ranking assumes both teams will use backup QBs in this game, but if Josh Allen is able to play, I think the Bills bring solid value here. The offense would go from bad to historic, and a Jets defense that has only the 22nd rank with respect to the adjusted bag rate probably has no monster match against the over-matched ticket series.
The showdown involves two terrible offenses against two defenses as DVOA ranks among the top seven (second Bills, seventh Jets). No wonder the total for this game is a Mariana Trench level of 36.5 points. With such a low total, you should almost like the Bills if you can find it at 7 or better.
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Falcons (-4) at Browns
Base field advantage: 2 points
Power Line: Falcons -1.5
Early search line: Falcons -1
| Record vs propagation | 3-5 | 5-4 |
| Difference of yards per game | 0.1 | -1.0 |
| Points per rank of attack | 4 | 29 |
| Ranking by points of defense | 30 | 11 |
| Weighted DVOA | -2.9 | -22.1 |
| DVOA classification violation | 4 | 30 |
| DVOA rank defense pass | 28 | 2 |
| Run offense DVOA rank | 22 | 21 |
| Run defense DVOA rank | 31 | 30 |
Even giving the Browns a bad advantage on their pitch, this line has air off. I've got the Browns as my 25th power team, and I can not put them to the league dropper because I think the defense is solid despite a series of tough fights while the l? offensive broke out with Baker Mayfield. The Falcons are tied for 12th place with the Bears. Even with this gap and the reduced HFA, the line goes to Falcons -1.5
The Falcons defense could be exactly what the Browns need to start. It is hard to find a metric that has anything positive to say about the stop unit in Atlanta. If the Browns' defense can put up any resistance, the home team could be upset.
Saints (-5.5) to the Bengals
Advantage of the ground of attachment: 2.5 points
Power Line: Saints -4
Lookahead Line: Saints -4
| Record vs propagation | 6-2 | 4-4 |
| Difference of yards per game | -0.1 | -0.6 |
| Points per rank of attack | 2 | 9 |
| Ranking by points of defense | 29 | 28 |
| Weighted DVOA | 15.4 | 0.4 |
| DVOA classification violation | 5 | 15 |
| DVOA rank defense pass | 29 | 16 |
| Run offense DVOA rank | ten | 16 |
| Run defense DVOA rank | 3 | 27 |
The Saints are making an excellent record against ATS, but their YPP differential is not buying the conference "The best team in the league". The offense is excellent, placing 4th in the overall standings of the DVOA and ranking just behind the Chiefs in points per disc. But the defense seemed beaten by good smuggling teams, ranking 31st in yards per attempt, which allowed it to be ranked 29th in DVOA. They also averaged only 3.9 yards per attempt, making them 27th in the NFL, despite the strong standings of the DVOA.
Are the Bengals the type of teams to create a surprise? They may have big days passing, but the offensive cap lowers without A.J. Green. And while the Bengals scored big against defenses at Tampa Bay and Atlanta, they also lost the Chiefs. Their efficiency in the air will be the key to knowing which side of this gap will win.
Red skins in buccaneers (-3)
Advantage of the ground of attachment: 2.5 points
Power Line: Buccaneers -2.5
Lookahead line: Choose them
| Record vs propagation | 5-3 | 3-5 |
| Difference of yards per game | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| Points per rank of attack | 22 | ten |
| Ranking by points of defense | 17 | 31 |
| Weighted DVOA | -5.8 | -21.8 |
| DVOA classification violation | 22 | ten |
| DVOA rank defense pass | 19 | 31 |
| Run offense DVOA rank | 15 | 25 |
| Run defense DVOA rank | 29 | 22 |
You can rule out a lot of what the numbers say about this confrontation with Washington, which deals with disabling injuries on the offensive line. When the injury virus continues to hit the same unit in a team, the problems of that unit will have more problems than if the wounds were distributed in different positions. So, even if the Bucs have the worst defense of the league by DVOA, one should expect that their first four players win the battle in the trenches here.
The Redskins defense will have the courage to slow down Bucs' offense, which ranks fourth in the number of yards per goal and 10 points in the DVOA. If the Bucs clash in attack as Atlanta against Washington last week, the game is over.
Patriots (-6.5) among the Titans
Home advantage: 3 points
Power Line: Patriots -4
Lookahead line: Patriots -6
| Record vs propagation | 6-3 | 5-3 |
| Difference of yards per game | 0.1 | -0.7 |
| Points per rank of attack | 6 | 25 |
| Ranking by points of defense | 12 | 6 |
| Weighted DVOA | 16.7 | -9.3 |
| DVOA classification violation | 7 | 26 |
| DVOA rank defense pass | 18 | 24 |
| Run offense DVOA rank | 8 | 20 |
| Run defense DVOA rank | 8 | 16 |
The Titans gave the least points in the league, while the formidable Patriots won six in a row. Something must be done, and although Titan's defense is doing well on the surface, DVOA is not a fan, which ranks them 20th. Malcolm Butler has turned out to be a mineable responsibility in the Titans' secondary branch, and Bill Belichick will take advantage of any weaknesses he may find. Despite some penalties against the Chiefs and Bears, the Patriots' defense played well during his team's six consecutive wins.
My power ratings think this line is inflated because the Titans should be four point dogs at home in this game. But the Patriots' worst four games in attack in terms of distance won were their four games on the road. If the Titans can continue to limit their possessions and shine in the red zone, it must remain inside the number.
Dolphins at Packers (-9.5)
Home advantage: 4 points
Power Line: Packers -9.5
Forecast line: n / a
| Record vs propagation | 5-4 | 3-5 |
| Difference of yards per game | -0.5 | 0.5 |
| Points per rank of attack | 26 | 16 |
| Ranking by points of defense | 19 | 18 |
| Weighted DVOA | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| DVOA classification violation | 19 | 13 |
| DVOA rank defense pass | 23 | 21 |
| Run offense DVOA rank | 13 | 5 |
| Run defense DVOA rank | 17 | 26 |
The fact that the Dolphins have a winning record after nine games despite these underlying statistics is pretty impressive. Combine the wide offset in the YPP differential with the Packers' excellent advantage in the field, and this should be an exciting pack of Packers, is not it?
Well, DVOA is a much bigger fan of the Dolphins, even placing them with the Packers of the season despite an offense that has been held under 175 yards twice this year, including during last week's win over the jets. The Packers' defense has had problems recently, and although you can not blame them for taking the road and preventing the Rams or Patriots from closing, they were not quite exceptional before the start. . Six of eight Green Bay opponents scored between 29 and 31 points; if the dolphins arrive there, they will cover.
Jaguars at Colts (-3)
Base field advantage: 2 points
Power Line: Colts -2.5
Early search line: Colts -2.5
| Record vs propagation | 3-5 | 4-4 |
| Difference of yards per game | 0.4 | -0.2 |
| Points per rank of attack | 30 | 8 |
| Ranking by points of defense | ten | 23 |
| Weighted DVOA | -4.2 | 4.4 |
| DVOA classification violation | 27 | 18 |
| DVOA rank defense pass | 7 | 25 |
| Run offense DVOA rank | 24 | 9 |
| Run defense DVOA rank | 9 | 13 |
You talk about a meeting of two opposites. The Jaguars can not get much in attack these days, and they certainly do not seem able to take advantage of Indy's weakness against the pass. The Colts have had at least 34 points in four of their last five games and, though Andrew Luck has shown that he could do it with his arm, that 's the current game. execution that has exploded in his last two games. The Jaguars play a good defense against running and passing, so it's not for nothing that the Colts will find a way to move the ball consistently.
The Jaguars have won four of the last five games in this series, but the Colts have won six in a row before this round and the Jags have yet to face a Colts team led by Frank Reich. These trends will not make much sense anyway. The Jaguars have also been facing a lot of unnamed QB Colts Andrew Luck in recent years while he was injured.
Lions in bears (-6.5)
Base field advantage: 3.5 points
Power Line: Bears -6.5
Lookahead line: Bears -4
| Record vs propagation | 5-3 | 5-3 |
| Difference of yards per game | -0.5 | 0.5 |
| Points per rank of attack | 15 | 11 |
| Ranking by points of defense | 26 | 1 |
| Weighted DVOA | -19.3 | 22.4 |
| DVOA classification violation | 21 | 14 |
| DVOA rank defense pass | 30 | 4 |
| Run offense DVOA rank | 17 | 7 |
| Run defense DVOA rank | 29 | 2 |
YPP and DVOA say the Bears are a much better team than the Lions. While you can understand that strength / strength and weakness / weakness / weakness with these fouls and defenses, the Bears have an offense just as good as the Lions, or better by some parameters. The Lions defense, on the other hand, is clearly the worst unit in this game, with four defending and defensive rankings in the last row by DVOA.
For the Lions, the problem is that Khalil Mack and Allen Robinson have been training hard Wednesday and the two Bears may be ready to return after an absence of several weeks. In contrast, the Lions exchanged their most reliable receiver and the offense seemed predictable against the Vikings last week.
Cardinals among the chiefs (-16,5)
Home advantage: 3 points
Power Line: Chiefs -13
Line of waiting: the chiefs -14.5
| Record vs propagation | 4-3-1 | 8-1 |
| Difference of yards per game | -1.0 | 0.9 |
| Points per rank of attack | 31 | 1 |
| Ranking by points of defense | 15 | 27 |
| Weighted DVOA | -32.5 | 43.2 |
| DVOA classification violation | 31 | 1 |
| DVOA rank defense pass | 8 | 14 |
| Run offense DVOA rank | 32 | 4 |
| Run defense DVOA rank | 12 | 32 |
My power becomes quite conservative when we talk about huge lines, and I do not think the Cardinals are among the 3-4 worst teams in the league. But I'm in no hurry to take the points against an offense that plays historically well. The football underdogs said Tuesday that the Chiefs had the third best attack they had followed (up to 1986) after nine games in one season.
Josh Rosen and his company could have the chance to make a back cover in the second half, for example if they are led 34 to 14. But can the offense get there? If it were not the bad tickets of all time, the Cardinals would easily have the worst offense in the league, according to the DVOA. The 321 yards of offense they had against the 49ers in their last game before the break was the first time they had reached 270. The best way to attack the Chiefs is to run, but the Cardinals rank last. in the league in both DVOA and yards per race, and they have not yet managed a match of 100 yards on the field. Not a player, but in a team. Good luck finding a way to make this game competitive.
Chargers (-9.5) at Raiders
Home advantage: 3 points
Power line: Chargers -8.5
Lookahead line: Chargers -7.5
| Record vs propagation | 4-4 | 2-6 |
| Difference of yards per game | 1.3 | -1.1 |
| Points per rank of attack | 5 | 27 |
| Ranking by points of defense | 13 | 32 |
| Weighted DVOA | 21.4 | -30.0 |
| DVOA classification violation | 2 | 16 |
| DVOA rank defense pass | 13 | 32 |
| Run offense DVOA rank | 6 | 27 |
| Run defense DVOA rank | 20 | 25 |
This seems to be a gap as important as the Cardinals-Chiefs game, but with the favorite on the road instead of home. Does it matter? The Raiders have come out at home against the Browns in their only win of the season, but have lost at least 14 points in each of their four games since. Sometimes you have to be worse than the Bucs in passing defense, but the Raiders have been successful.
The Chargers, on the other hand, have the best YPP differential in the league thanks to an almost as good offense as the Chiefs and a rather good defense to mediocre. They won at home 26-10 against the Raiders in the 5th week and we could get a similar result here.
Seahawks at Rams (-9.5)
Home advantage: 3 points
Power Line: Rams -9.5
Lookahead line: Rams -8
| Record vs propagation | 4-3-1 | 4-5 |
| Difference of yards per game | -0.2 | 0.9 |
| Points per rank of attack | 14 | 3 |
| Ranking by points of defense | 5 | 22 |
| Weighted DVOA | 12.6 | 29.7 |
| DVOA classification violation | 11 | 3 |
| DVOA rank defense pass | 5 | 12 |
| Run offense DVOA rank | 14 | 2 |
| Run defense DVOA rank | 15 | 24 |
The Rams were a heavyweight before falling into the hands of the Saints last week, but they struggled to cover big numbers this year. Apart from an easy win against the 49ers, the Rams have not covered the last figure since the third week. Although the offensive was launched, the defense had its problems this year, and in particular the defense against rushing seems to be attacked by a Seattle attack that has exceeded 150 yards rushing in five straight games.
The Seahawks scored 31 points in the first meeting between these two teams, and nothing was capricious. they did not start on the Rams side after all the games played, and three of their four TD records totaled at least 74 yards. If they can achieve another full performance in attack, this game has a good chance of staying within the number.
Cowboys in Eagles (-7)
Base field advantage: 3.5 points
Power Rating: Eagles -7.5
Lookahead line: Eagles -6
| Record vs propagation | 3-5 | 3-5 |
| Difference of yards per game | 0.2 | -0.3 |
| Points per rank of attack | 23 | 17 |
| Ranking by points of defense | 4 | 7 |
| Weighted DVOA | -6.1 | -11.3 |
| DVOA classification violation | 28 | 20 |
| DVOA rank defense pass | 26 | 9 |
| Run offense DVOA rank | 11 | 18 |
| Run defense DVOA rank | 4 | 23 |
The last time these two teams met, Dallas won 6-0. Should we expect another dinner here? While both defenses played much better than their opponents in the attack, DVOA is not impressed with the Cowboys' defense defense and the Eagles could have a hard time slowing Ezekiel Elliott with his anti-defense. -precipitation.
The Cowboys have scored a total of 28 points in their last three games against this defense, and similar offensive production will not succeed. Golden Tate caught the eight targets for 132 yards and two touchdowns against that defense earlier in the year, and the Eagles could try to exploit everything that was going on in the Lions game.
The giants at 49ers (-3)
Base field advantage: 2 points
Power line: 49ers -2.5
Line of waiting: 49ers -2.5
| Record vs propagation | 3-5 | 3-6 |
| Difference of yards per game | -0.1 | 0.1 |
| Points per rank of attack | 24 | 18 |
| Ranking by points of defense | 25 | 24 |
| Weighted DVOA | -13.3 | -18.0 |
| DVOA classification violation | 23 | 25 |
| DVOA rank defense pass | 27 | 17 |
| Run offense DVOA rank | 23 | 26 |
| Run defense DVOA rank | 18 | 19 |
Are you ready for football? Nick Mullens will try to regain his prime time magic against what is on paper a more difficult defensive match, but not much. The Giants may be 1-7, but five of those defeats were seven points or less, so they know how to stay in games against most teams. The 49ers have no particularly strong defense, so if Eli Manning and his company have to find the slightest fight, this is the bet that will allow them to fight.
DVOA actually thinks that the Giants are slightly better team, and that when you pair this advantage with the advantage of 49ers on the field at home, it could be ripe for a surprise.
Teaser of the week
Bear -0.5 vs. Lions
Chargers -3.5 at Raiders
The Bears are easy to follow this week, given the huge imbalance between the two teams and Chicago, which allowed the stars to come back from both sides of the ball this week. The second part of the trailer is a little harder, and although we do not have 3 players with the Chargers, they feel like a safe call against a team of Raiders who has given up. The Eagles also deserve to be considered here if all they have to do is beat the Cowboys at home with a huge disparity in rest.
The teaser of the week is 5-4 after the Rams failed to keep it to a score against the Saints. This one hurts.
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