[ad_1]
The casual bettor loves to play against newly released teams. The thought is simple: when a team has one more week to rest, heal and prepare for their next match, they should be able to take advantage in a match where the other team is in regular rest. . injured and has only one week to prepare to face the rested team.
In practice, however, playing equally with teams is not necessarily profitable. If you look at the ATS records recorded since the beginning of 2011, which give each team at least seven data points to analyze, you will see that only 11 teams cover more than 50% of the time, while 14 are below 50% of ATS (the other seven are of course 50% right). This year we saw four teams say goodbye and not cover weeks 5 and 6.
The Saints and Lions are two of the eleven winning teams after one exception. They both come on a weekend 6. The Saints are tied for the best record against the gap since 2011 at 6-1, while the Lions are no longer than 5- 2. So you should play both this week, right? Not enough.
We know what we get from the saints. Sean Payton has been coaching for a long time and Drew Brees is his quarterback for our entire sample. The average margin of victory of the team over the past seven years with a pass is 6.9 points, and they have beaten the gap with an average of 4.4 points. Even on the road against a good team in Baltimore this week, the story is on the side of the Saints and this year's version was launched after a fragile start to the season.
The Lions, however, have a new coach at Matt Patricia and we can not make any assumptions as to how he will react to a week of extra preparation. We know the Lions entered the game after a big home win against the Packers, but it was a game where they did not look good despite the final score, with the offensive having by far handled its worst yield in yards per year of the year. The defense has allowed more than 100 yards more than its worst precedent. We also know that Patricia's team did not look ready to play in the first week as they had several weeks of time to prepare for their coaching debut. When Lions win a bye, games also tend to be very close. They have therefore a negative margin of victory since 2011, despite a record of 5-2.
The Lions may have an immediate start, but they are in a difficult position to be the road favorite against a team that is good at home, and who proved that he could win last week with his quarterback in reinforcement on the ground. I would not rush to the window to play Detroit, but the trends are returning to normal with the Saints.
If you want to know what sides of the week you like, you'll find this information on the SportsLine link below, where all my games played during the season, as well as my five SuperContest choices every week and many quality analyzes from a fantastic collection of experts. You can also check where all the CBS Sports staff come in every week here.
Every week in this space, I'll go behind the lines and selections to dive deeper into what you should know before locking your pieces. This includes what lines are in motion, what benefits on the ground do not have enough credit, what injuries you should watch out for, my best teaser of the week and many more.
Let's go.
My choices
At SportsLine, I have a few choices waiting for week 7 and I'll have a lot more before Friday night. Sign up now and use the WHITE promo code for $ 1 the first month. You will be able to choose my choice and that of all SportsLine experts throughout the year, as well as my choice of SuperContest every Saturday.
However, you can get a free choice with my teaser of the week at the end of this article. Enjoy!
Biggest line movement
Titans vs. Chargers -6.5
Invoices for Colts -7.5
Saints at Ravens -2.5
Rams -10 to 49ers
Giants at Falcons -6
The Chargers easily handled business in Cleveland last week, while the Titans' offense could not do anything against the Ravens. It is therefore logical that this line goes from a number to the forefront of Chargers -3 to 3.5 points. But you have to ask yourself: does this further reflect the overall value of these teams or is this number of Chargers -3 closer to a neutral ground?
The line is naturally far from the Bills with the announcement of the exit of Josh Allen and the beginning of the recent signing of Derek Anderson. Anderson has had ties to Sean McDermott since his stint in Carolina, but that has nothing to do with Sunday's attack, as McDermott led the defense with the Panthers.
Saints-Ravens was a wise choice, but after Baltimore brought him to Tennessee last week, Vegas now sees his teams almost equal. I've been touting the Ravens all year and I offered them a ticket to participate in the playoffs and another to win the Super Bowl at 50/1, but that does not seem to be a good place for them, with New Orleans coming out of the shadows. .
The 49ers gave the Packers everything they had on Monday night and Vegas certainly took note of it, knocking down this game of Rams numbers still as impressive – 12.5. The Rams were unable to cover the first two matches of their three-game journey, but Baltimore showed last week that you do not necessarily want your team to automatically play for a third straight game on the road.
The Giants missed their game last Thursday, and with the Falcons finally finding a way to win, this week's Monday night match was marked by a big step ahead of the Falcons line of -3.5. Considering that the Giants did not seem completely lost on the offensive all year and that the Falcons play against half of their second unit in defense, it could be a bit too aggressive.
So which teams should you return to the 7th week of the NFL season? And which competitor of the Super Bowl is struggling? Now check out SportsLine to see which teams win more than 50% of the simulations, all from the model that outperformed 98% of the experts that NFLPickWatch.com has followed in the past two seasons.
The DVOA edge
Broncos -1 at Cardinals
Bears +3 vs. Patriots
Panthers +4.5 in the Eagles
Jets +3 against the Vikings
Texans +5 at Jaguars
Ravens -2.5 vs. saints
Giants +6 at Falcon
One of the things I like to look for when dissecting matches is a situation where the DVOA Football Outsiders do not agree with the line of bets. I do not have a specific formula, but my standard is basically four DVOA points for every point of the neutral field line, although once the line gets big enough, I think that looks more like at five points of DVOA. Rather than using the usual DVOA numbers, for this exercise, I first use DAVE (which integrates the pre-season projections), then weighted, to get a better idea of the value of each team in moment of the season when I need to know it together.
For example, the Broncos are the favorites at a point in Arizona. DVOA shows a huge difference between the two teams, about 23 percentage points. That would make the line around Broncos -5.5 or -6 on neutral ground. By giving the advantage of 2.5 points in the land advantage that I give to Arizona, this suggests that the line should be Broncos -3 or -3.5. At least as far as DVOA is concerned, the edge goes to the Broncos on the current line.
DVOA fundamentally sees no difference in the overall values of the two teams in the Patriots-Bears, Vikings-Jets and Jaguars-Texans clashes. Still, the line gives a length of time to a camp and puts a lot of value for the dogs of the house. in the first two cases and the Jaguars in the other. The Panthers have a slightly higher rating than the Eagles, which would make it a better line, the Eagles having a better than average advantage. The Ravens have a slightly better score than the Saints and should get 3.5 points for HFA as well, so this line is probably 1.5 points lower by DVOA. And the Falcons rank just 23rd with a score of -8.5 DAVE (and much worse when you consider only DVOA), which places them much closer to the Giants than suggests the line above .
Sorry to interrupt your reading, but just a brief message of public interest here. We have a pretty amazing daily podcast that you may not know about the NFL. It is hosted by Will Brinson and offers all the things you are looking for: news, fantastic, choice, really, just football for footballers. Subscribe: via iTunes | via Stitcher | via TuneIn | via Google Play.
Discoloration of the public
Chefs -6 vs Bengals
Jets +3.5 vs Vikings
If 80% or more of the action is located on one side of the line, you want to think about taking the other side, a practice generally known as public erasure. If the consensus thinks you have developed a game, it should be a harbinger for you. (All BetOnline betting trends data via Vegas Insider, and you can find the latest numbers here.)
The Chiefs are just above the threshold at the time of writing and, with the line that does not move, the Bengals are a nice game on the other side. The backdoor should be wide open in this game, given the seriousness of the Chiefs' defense.
The public likes to get 3.5 on the Jets at BetOnline, but the number of tickets changes in the other way to places where the Vikings can be busy at -3. If you think the Jets have a value, you should be able to find them at +3.5, but if you like the Vikings, you should probably jump to -3 where they are available now because this one could go up.
Other public coins that could end up above the 80% threshold: Chargers -6.5 vs. Titans in London; Patriotes -3 at Bears;
Lines I move
Broncos -1 in the Cardinals (ARI -1)
Titans vs. Chargers -6.5 (LAC -3)
Patriots -3 at Bears (NE -1)
Lions -2.5 in dolphins (MIA -1)
Panthers at Eagles -4.5 (PHI -7)
Colts Bills -7.5 (IND -9.5)
Texans at Jaguars -5 (JAC -7)
Cowboys at Redskins -2 (WAS -5)
If my odds and number of weighted benefits on my land indicate that a line is more than one point, you would have 20-10-1 playing blindly on the side where there is value. There are obviously more elements that come into play because Friday 's injury reports, the weather and other factors will determine whether I am comfortable playing one of them. these valuable sides, but that's a good starting point.
I do not think the Broncos are so good, so I do not understand how to make them favorites on the road Thursday night, a spot we saw is difficult for most teams on the road. The Chargers gained one point and the Titans lost one point, which only led me to a three-point difference on a neutral ground in London. With the Chargers playing at 6:30 am, west coast time, I do not let them be favored by a touchdown almost here. I have the Patriots ranked No. 2 in the NFL, but that's not enough to make them favorites with three points on the road facing a better-than-average team.
The line for Lions-Dolphins is out, even considering Ryan Tannehill's injury. Brock Osweiler must start again, but the difference between the two quarters is not very big, and certainly not enough to justify making a bad Lions team a road favorite. The Dolphins are the best team overall, and their defense is easy here.
I think the Eagles are about to become one of the best teams in the league and that they are aggressively rated at 3.5 points better than the average, while the Panthers are right on average. Even with all of Indy's injuries, I think Andrew Luck versus a substitute quarterback at the league's worst offensive is enough for the Colts to become double-digit favorites. I think the Texans are pretty awful and that's a bad place for them because the Jags are embarrassed in Dallas. And finally, just for the ratings, Washington should be favored by more field placement against the Cowboys, but their story against the franchise would probably make it a more conservative move for me. In any case, Washington should be at least -3.
Teaser of the week
Colts -1.5 vs. Bills
Dolphins +8.5 vs. Lions
The Colts have had to deal with a very large number of injuries, but their attack is still topical, with Andrew Luck's team averaging more than 27 points per game over the past three weeks. The Bills were a wrecked offensive train with Josh Allen and they will now play against a guy they just signed to the quarterback because their normal reserve team would make the coaches lose the locker room. That does not seem to be a recipe for success, so even if the Bills get the most out of the defense, Indy should cover this small number with ease. I've talked a lot about the Lions-Dolphins confrontation, and there's a ton of value that teases them through points 3 and 7 here.
Among other games to discover, it should be noted: PK leaders, because they are a much better team than the Bengals; Saints +8.5, as they are generally awesome and the Ravens are a little inflated after a dominant win last week; Bears +9 because the Patriots have not played well on the road this year; Jets +9, because the Vikings did not seem to defend well.
The teaser of the week is 4-2 after the Titans collapsed at home against the Ravens; the game consisted of playing the Steelers with the Dolphins, especially after the last line was inflated when Ryan Tannehill was dismissed.
[ad_2]
Source link
