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(Christian Petersen / Getty Images)
Neil Greenberg
Reporter analyzing advanced sports statistics for the Fancy Stats blog
Some famous names are coming back to the NFL list this week. Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz will be in the center for Philadelphia for the first time since December 10, 2017, pushing Super Bowl hero Nick Foles into a reserve role. In addition, Green Packers running back Aaron Jones, suspended for the first two games of the year for violating the NFL's drug policy, will be lined up with 53 players and face the Washington Redskins.
There could also be notable absences. Counter-striker LeSean McCoy's Bill broke the rib cartilage in Sunday's game against the Los Angeles Chargers. Kansas City Chiefs safety Eric Berry is still injured in the heel and may not be ready for Sunday's game against the San Francisco 49ers, now the NFL's all-time passing cover team. And Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals player, left the game against the Los Angeles Rams earlier with a hamstring injury.
These scenarios are directly related to a number of our Start / Sit recommendations and, in one case, lead to a very controversial conclusion.
[If your favorite NFL team is 0-2, it’s doomed]
beginning
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Garoppolo completed 18 26-assists on eight receivers for 206 yards and two touchdowns Sunday against the Detroit Lions, a performance that was tempered by a 27-13 lead after three quarters (the teams playing with an advance exceed) .
In the third week, on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs (2-0), the 49ers should play from behind, which will lead to more pass attempts. Since 2017, first year under coach Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco passes the ball 61% of the time to score. This is reduced to 45% of the time when preserving an advance.
Jordan Howard, RB, Chicago Bears
Howard fought the Seahawks on Monday Night Football – 35 yards in 14 carries with three receptions for 33 yards – but this week's opponent, the Arizona Cardinals, is at the bottom of most stats defensive. The cardinals, because they drag so often, rank in the last or second rank for the first authorized tests (54), the average time per disc allowed (3 minutes and 37 seconds), games allowed per disc ( 7.2) and yards allowed per disc (43). ). Arizona also allowed 24 points more than expected on the field after taking into account the low position, distance and ground of each rush attempt.
Chris Ivory, RB, Buffalo Bills
McCoy is questionable for the third week, opening the door to Ivory for it to be relevant.
Ivory has only five races this season, but has hit the ball 133 times for Jacksonville in 2017, totaling 557 yards per scrum with two touchdowns. Only Leonard Fournette had more red zones than the Ivory team this year. If there are any red zones or goal lines to have against the Minnesota Vikings, Ivory is likely to have them.
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David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals
It's likely you do not have a better option, given Johnson's high draft, but if you recruited Johnson hoping to return to his 2016 form, you're not the only one, but so far he was a shell of himself. Johnson sees a smaller share of spinoffs this year than in 2016 (compared to 48 percent), which is even lower when cardinals do not have their heads – a common occurrence in 2018. For example, Johnson has hit the ball 44 percent of the time in 2016 when the team followed by seven or more points and that percentage dropped to 35 percent in 2018 under the same circumstances, most of these opportunities having been the result of fewer hasty attempts.
In addition, according to Pro Football Focus's game charters, Johnson made almost 32 runs per game in 2016, averaging 1.7 yards per course. By 2018, this number has fallen to 19 lines per game, with less than one yard produced per course. And finally, according to the NFL's NextGen statistics, he was separated on 26 percent of its routes in 2016, but only nine percent in 2018.
RB Cardinals David Johnson
Perhaps a better situation will come in the fourth week against the defense of the Seattle Seahawks defense or at weeks 5 and 8 when Arizona will face the San Francisco 49ers. But for the moment, a more cautious attitude is justified.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans
Hopkins has been targeted 22 times this season, tied for ninth in the league, with 15 passes for 230 yards and a touchdown. On Sunday, he will face a player from the ranks of the New York Giants who allowed Blake Bortles and Dak Prescott to pass 81.6 against. the league average is 91.3.
The key for Big Blue was cornerback Eli Apple and Landon Collins as well as linebacker Alec Ogletree, three defenders above average. The Giants have not yet touched a breakaway in 2018. In addition, only two receivers have more than 50 yards in a game against Giants High this season.
It's fair to say the Giants have yet to face a big breakaway like Hopkins this season, but quarterback Texans Deshaun Watson showed none of last year's MVP forms. And if the Giants can put pressure on him in the pocket, his efficiency will drop even more. Starting in 2017, Watson's target throwing rate has risen from 83% to 55% under pressure, while its intercept rate has gone from 2% to 7%.
Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers must go on the road and play against the Los Angeles Rams, the third best secondary unit and fourth best low-pass NFL. Since 2016, the first data is available from Sports Info Solutions, Philip Rivers has been significantly degraded under pressure. Its target rate falls from 82 to 59% while its interception rate doubles, from 2 to 4%, resulting in a sharp fall in its rate of passage, also from 105.2 to 70.6. That's about the difference in performance between Tom Brady and Brett Hundley last year.
If Rivers is far from this kind of performance decline, Allen could have one of his worst games in years.
Learn more NFL Coverage:
Super Bowl of the Patriots returns to the post-trade recovery for Josh Gordon
Ok, now everyone can start to panic about the links in the NFL
Carson Wentz is not only medically allowed to return, but he will start Sunday for the Eagles
Ryan Fitzpatrick steals Jameis Winston's work and DeSean Jackson's clothes
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