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In week 3, I broke down the success rate of the teams ranked as favorites to 16 points or more, and I concluded that the Bills had a good chance of remaining in the numbers, but an absolute victory was too much to ask. the rear. The Vikings. You know how it ended.
This week, we'll be looking at another unbalanced line involving the NFL's favorite boxing bag. The Patriots are currently the 14-point favorites on the road against the Bills in what could be a bloodbath Monday night. If the closing line is at least -14 Patriots, this will be the first time since 2013 that a team on the road has been favored by as many points in a regular season game. Since 1982, we have seen this scenario happen 31 times, and the underdog has a 17-14 record against the gap.
However, if you isolate only the last 10 years, the outsider is 6-3 against the gap, with only three of those huge lines in 2009. The favorites had been on a five-match series without a raise in this scenario before the 49ers defeated The Jaguars at Jacksonville, 42-10, were the favorites 14.5 points in 2013. Colin Kaepernick had only 10 wins for 16 in the win while he was running for two touchdowns, which Frank Gore equaled, although Kendall Hunter led the team with 84 yards on nine carries. It was a different moment.
But the scenario we see this week with the Patriots and Bills is even rarer as it involves divisional opponents. The Pro-Football-Reference database contains only 10 occurrences of a division match that resulted in a 14-point victory over the road team. If this happens here, it will be the first time we will see it since … the Patriots have been noticed. 16-point favorites against the Bills in the 11th week of 2007. The Patriots got a score of 56-10, but we know that the Patriots team was at a very different level than this year.
The big favorite of the road has covered each of the four occurrences of our subset since 2000, two of those Patriots of 2007. Previously, the underdog was 4-2 against the gap with 14 points or more.
What does this mean for our bet during the 8th week of 2018? I think the only side you can consider is the Bills, because this year's Patriots team has won by more than 14 points and is not very solid on the road, even if they managed to stand up at the Bears in Chicago last week, thanks in part to two touchdowns from the special teams. However, I would also not place the hard-earned US dollars in a team opposed by Derek Anderson.
If you must have an action Monday night, can I suggest the sub? The Bills offensive has been a train wreck this season and is a mess at the quarterback. The Patriots do not need to win this game at 40, and in cold and potentially wet conditions, it should be up to Bill Belichick to build a comfortable lead in the first half and clear the clock in the middle. time. We could see something like 26-3 or 27-6 as the final here.
If you want to know what sides of the week you like, you'll find this information on the SportsLine link below, where all my games played during the season, as well as my five SuperContest choices every week and many quality analyzes from a fantastic collection of experts. You can also check where all the CBS Sports staff come in every week here.
Every week in this space, I'll go behind the lines and selections to dive deeper into what you should know before locking your pieces. This includes what lines are in motion, what benefits on the ground do not have enough credit, what injuries you should watch out for, my best teaser of the week and many more.
Let's go.
My choices
At SportsLine, I have some choices waiting for the 8th week and I'll have a lot more before Friday night. Sign up now and use the WHITE promo code for $ 1 the first month. You will be able to choose my choice and that of all SportsLine experts throughout the year, as well as my choice of SuperContest every Saturday.
However, you can get a free choice with my teaser of the week at the end of this article. Enjoy!
Biggest line movement
The buccaneers in Bengals -4,5
Ravens -2 at Panthers
Colts -3 at Raiders
The Bengals opened the scoring as a six-point favorites, but they were quickly caught off guard by hard-fought punters who hit the Bucs, apparently waiting for a close result. Three of Cincinnati's four wins were double-digit, but they have not been good either in the last two weeks. The Bucs have lost by more than five times this year.
The Ravens were chosen in Carolina against the Panthers in South Carolina, but it seems that punters expect the team on the road to rebound after a shocking loss to the Saints, who scored the first extra point missed from Justin Tucker. The Panthers are 4-2 and have just won a big win in Philadelphia, but the edges are obviously not impressed.
The three-point move in Colts-Raiders is easy to understand. The Raiders negotiate Amari Cooper and report that they are returning home in 2018. That said, it is a bit shocking to see a team of 2 to 5 winners on the road.
Regarding the standings, the Cardinals were the favorites 2.5 points against the 49ers at home before the 7th week, but now find themselves at home. If you think that the change of offensive coordinator will make a difference in Arizona, you must love the value this line offers. And the Patriots were just 10-point favorites in Buffalo before Vegas got the chance to see how bad the Bills attack was with Derek Anderson at the helm.
So which teams should you return to the eighth week of the NFL season? And which competitor of the Super Bowl is struggling? Now check out SportsLine to see which teams win more than 50% of the simulations, all from the model that outperformed 98% of the experts that NFLPickWatch.com has followed in the past two seasons.
The DVOA edge
Dolphins + 7.5 to Texans
Jaguars +3 against the Eagles
Broncos +10 at Chiefs
Seahawks +3 to Lions
One of the things I like to look for when dissecting matches is a situation where the DVOA Football Outsiders do not agree with the line of bets. I do not have a specific formula, but my standard is basically four DVOA points for every point of the neutral field line, although once the line gets big enough, I think that looks more like at five points of DVOA. Rather than using the usual DVOA numbers, for this exercise, I first use DAVE (which integrates the pre-season projections), then weighted, to get a better idea of the value of each team in moment of the season when I need to know it together.
The Dolphins actually have a better score than the Texans, but some of that can be attributed to their performance with Ryan Tannehill. With the quarterback in training and on the road with a short week of preparation, I'm not sure to rush to the counter to get my money back on the Dolphins.
The Jaguars and Eagles are neck and neck in DVOA, although the Eagles are obviously considered three points better on a neutral ground. DVOA also thinks that the Broncos-Chiefs line should be lower by about three points. And although the line in the Seahawks-Lions game involves dead teams, DVOA draws a much rosier picture for the team on the road, with around 22 AVOA difference points in between. That would imply a Seahawks -5.5 neutral line, which would be Seahawks -2.5 in Detroit.
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Discoloration of the public
Eagles -3 vs Jaguars
Bears -7 vs Jets
Redskins -1 at Giants
Colts -3 at Raiders
49ers PK at Cardinals
If 80% or more of the action is located on one side of the line, you want to think about taking the other side, a practice generally known as public erasure. If the consensus thinks you have developed a game, it should be a harbinger for you. (All BetOnline betting trends data via Vegas Insider, and you can find the latest numbers here.)
The Eagles get 84% of the tickets starting Wednesday night, which is another indicator that the Jaguars could be the best players in this game. It's not hard to understand why the public is lining up to defeat the completely broken Jaguars offensive in recent weeks and even beat quarterback Blake Bortles in the loss to the Texans. Bortles has been announced as a starter in this one, however.
The public does not buy the Jets who leave on the road and hang out with the Bears, a team that receives 86% of tickets in this meeting. I can not give you any reason to play the Jets, except the concept of tarnishing the audience.
The Redskins are your brand's posters for public discoloration, as they draw 95% of incredible tickets Wednesday night. The Giants made two trades earlier this week, detonating their lineup and beginning a long awaited rebuild. It is clear that the public thinks that it will be a no show on the pitch this week. This same concept is fighting for the Raiders, since 92% of the tickets were won by the Colts.
The 49ers represent 83% of the Cardinals tickets, which could be a dangerous game for the public as the 49ers are a team of 1 to 6 players on the road and getting massive support from the public. We should also expect to see some changes in the offensive game with Byron Leftwich taking the reins of the offensive coordinator.
The Packers have not yet reached the 80% threshold at the time of writing this article, but they still have enough tickets at +9.5 against the Rams so they can also play a game "fade to the public ".
The biggest line movements I would do
Browns at Steelers -8 (PIT -5.5)
Redskins -1 in the Giants (WAS -2.5)
Ravens -2 at Panthers (PK)
Colts -3 to Raiders (PK)
49ers -1 in the Cardinals (ARI -3)
Saints at Vikings PK (MIN -3)
If my odds and number of weighted benefits on my land indicate that a line is more than one point, you would have 26-18-1 by blindly playing on the side where there is value. There are obviously more elements that come into play because Friday 's injury reports, the weather and other factors will determine whether I am comfortable playing one of them. these valuable sides, but that's a good starting point. These are the lines that I have at least two points this week.
I'm not as high on the Steelers or as low on the Browns as conventional wisdom would say, and I only have a three point gap between the teams on neutral ground. With the Steelers who do not get the full three points for the home title, the Steelers line is -5.5% for me. It seems like I'm on the Browns every week, but it works because they are 5-2 Away this season.
The Redskins should be a big favorite considering what we've seen Giants, but I'm not trying to jump on that line, despite everything I think. Something tells me that the Giants manage to win this week, for whatever reason.
My numbers say that the Ravens-Panthers and Colts-Raiders games should be chosen, but Vegas took a clear position in the team on the road in each case. Anyway, I could love the Ravens in spite of the poor value of their line, but you absolutely can not make me impose three points with the Colts on the road against whoever it is.
The 49ers-Cardinals game is the biggest puzzle. My numbers have the Cardinals as the best team because I trust their defense more than any unit in this match and I think the offensive coordinator change will make a noticeable difference. My notes have this as Cardinals -3.5, but I think hanging three in this confrontation is more than reasonable.
I also hung all three in Saints-Vikings, because even though I have a better score for the Saints on neutral ground, the Vikings have one of the best field strengths in the league and get four points in my notes they play at home. This corresponds to a line of Vikings -3, which seems more logical to me than to see it as a choice.
Teaser of the week
Bears -1 vs. jets
Buccaneers +10.5 to the Bengals
I'm waiting for the Bears to play against a team of Jets at batting and cornerback with a quarterback who did not look so hot at his first exposure to cold temperatures last week. It will also be the first road match of the Jets in October this year, thanks to three consecutive home games. I do not want them to go to Chicago in this game.
Bengals are also victims of many injuries. 10 players lost training on Wednesday. They may have managed to chain 11 consecutive wins early in the year, but one was home in a short week and the other needed a last-minute scoop-score to take home to two figures. The attack of the Buccaneers should be able to keep up the pace here.
Other possible games include: Steelers -2, although I would not play more throwing a touchdown; Heads -4, although I usually like to review three teasers; Vikings +6, because I do not see them being rolled at home.
The teaser of the week is 4-3 after the dolphins have let me down; the obvious game should have been to bring the leaders back to a choice against the Bengals.
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