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"It's safe to say that policies other than carbon pricing have resulted in the majority of emissions cuts to date," said Jesse Jenkins, postdoctoral fellow at the John F. Kennedy School of Government. from Harvard.
One possible reason for this is that while government regulations can often cost more to reduce emissions per tonne, they also tend to hide costs from voters, and can therefore be a safer political bet. A policy demanding that utilities build more renewable energy has obvious benefits – more wind and sun – and low costs. But a carbon tax that directly raises the price of gasoline at the pump or the price of electricity causes more obvious suffering and is therefore probably more objectionable.
A typical example: in 2012, the Australian government put in place a cap-and-trade program that effectively sets a price of $ 23 per tonne on carbon. Emissions fell across the country as part of the program. However, this policy has been the subject of a strong political reaction from industry groups and voters. When the country's more conservative Liberal Party came to power in 2013, it quickly repealed the program.
A recent report by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) found that the average price of carbon in 42 major economies was around $ 8 per tonne in 2018, well below the level that was deemed necessary by most experts to fight against climate change. Some researchers have argued that these low prices may reflect the political constraints on direct carbon pricing.
By way of comparison, the UN report estimated that governments should impose effective carbon prices between $ 135 and $ 5,500 per tonne of carbon dioxide by 2030 in order to keep global warming below 1 , 5 ° C or 2.7 ° F.
The O.E.C.D. The report mentions, however, that carbon pricing is starting to show signs of momentum in many parts of the world. Portugal set up its own carbon tax in 2015, followed by Chile in 2017. China has launched an early carbon trading program in several of its provinces. California has recently expanded its own cap and trade program to cover 85% of its emissions at the state level. This fall, voters in the state of Washington will decide whether to adopt their own carbon tax.
Some scientists hope that the new United Nations report on the dangers of future climate change will encourage countries to redouble efforts in this direction. "If the report works and governments take it seriously, it should increase their ambition to reduce emissions quickly," said Princeton climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer.
