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CARLSBAD, Calif. – Four months after Lance McCullers Jr. rubbed his right elbow, summoned a coach to the Dodger Stadium and left the field under a veil of uncertainty, the worst fears of the Astros came true.
Tommy John was operated Tuesday by the 25-year-old curveball maestro and favorite of enthusiastic supporters, leaving him out for the 2019 season. His departure coincides with the entry of Charlie Morton and Dallas Keuchel in the franchise, forcing the Astros to replace 500 rounds of the best starting rotation in the history of the franchise.
"We will not panic," said General Manager Jeff Luhnow.
McCullers left his August 4 start in Los Angeles after four innings. He started some warm-up pitches before the fifth inning and winced towards the dugout.
Originally, McCullers said he had been diagnosed with muscular fatigue of the forearm. He added that doctors suspected that he was suffering a lot by beating a bat during the league match. He embarked on a two-month re-education process designed for a possible return to the playoffs.
Minor setbacks left him with insufficient time to resume his starting position. McCullers joined the editorial staff during the last week of the regular season. He made three goal-less appearances, with a proper rotation of his curve and his speed with his fastball – quite normal to justify the inclusion as a relief on the alignments of the Astros, ALDS and ALCS.
McCullers launched five rounds in the playoffs. He allowed one race and took out four. After the season, McCullers revealed that he was "going through some things".
"I do not think he did anything during his use in September and October to make matters worse," Luhnow said. "We were very careful in planning his outings and his use to make sure he was asymptomatic, that he felt good, that his counter sessions were good. We were extremely careful. There is nothing that has happened in a game or anything that has led to that result.
"The reality is that every thrower has some kind of elbow tear, and it's up to the medical team to figure out what's the best course of action. And normally, when someone is asymptomatic, it is important to stay in competition. That's basically why we used it in the playoffs. "
McCullers' images and elbow assessment in August left Luhnow and the organization believing that they could continue to deploy the thrower as long as he did not feel any discomfort. However, for his long-term health, ordering the surgery to Tommy John was more beneficial. The procedure results in a recovery of at least one year. Letting him come to spring training and decide to proceed with the operation in February or March involves the possibility of missing parts of two seasons.
Instead, McCullers plans to miss only next season. How the Astros explain their absence – to maximize the last season of team control for Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole – becomes their main post-season issue.
Verlander and Cole will lead the rotation. Their presence soothes the pain of McCullers's diagnosis. The imminent addition of another veteran could do the same.
The news from McCullers increases the probability that Collin McHugh, winner of 19 matches in 2015, will return to the rotation. Pushed into the market this season after the acquisition of Cole, McHugh was ranked fourth among the worst performers in ERA and WHIP among the levers of the American League.
"I would say we have three places pretty well blocked if we choose to put McHugh back in the rotation," Luhnow said. "In the absence of Lance, it probably increases the chances of this happening."
Other internal options, although less proven, also exist. Josh James and Framber Valdez impressed during the September orders. Cionel Perez also presents himself as a starting pitcher, despite his eight major league games played this season.
The first-round picks in the consecutive projects – J.B. Bukauskas and Forrest Whitley – are in full swing in the Arizona Autumn League after abbreviated seasons in the minor leagues. Whitley, the organization's top prospect, dropped 23 in 17 innings. Bukauskas has a life of 2.70 in 162/3.
"These two guys must be on the horizon for potential rotating parts for us in the next 12 to 24 months," Luhnow said.
Luhnow said Tuesday that he "hopes" that Whitley will play in the big leagues next season. The CEO then retired to the lobby of a golf complex hosting GM's annual meetings, where he continued his conversations to evaluate the free agent market.
Free agent shots are somewhat meager. Patrick Corbin and Keuchel – who holds an Astros qualification offer – are the most established high-end shooters on the market. Morton and Lance Lynn – each with fWARs equal to or greater than three last season – are waiting among the second-tier weapons available.
"We will explore every opportunity to continue building a rotation to have an elite rotation," Luhnow said. "We got used to that last year and we really liked it."
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