Trade war: China considers tariffs as an effort to contain its political rise

BEIJING – The trade war is not about trade. The trade war is about the United States trying to contain China and undermine it.

This is the theory increasingly prevalent in Beijing these days after President Trump has imposed another round of even higher tariffs on Chinese products and prompted China to retaliate against US imports. .

Washington could see there attempts at simple economic rebalancing.

But many of Beijing's leaders are examining it through a broader perspective of China's accession and US anxiety about power balances.

The elements they see include Trump's relative friendship with Taiwan, the prospect of US sanctions on the treatment of Uyghur Muslims by China, and the US decision to exclude China from the Pacific military exercises this year.

Taken together, there is a strong conspiracy smell from China's point of view. This could add another layer of complications to the commercial battles already underway.

"There is a debate raging in Beijing over whether Trump wants a trade deal or whether he wants to thwart China's rise to power," he said. Bonnie GlaserDirector of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "Those who think Trump wants to contain China are opposed to making concessions."

In public commentary and in private conversations, the theory of containment appears more and more.

"The intention of the United States to disrupt China's development process has been fully revealed," said the People's Daily in the run-up to Trump's decision to tax Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion. .

The fact that the sanctions were imposed on the anniversary of Japan's invasion of Japan in 1931 – a day many Chinese people see as an unofficial day of national humiliation – simply messed up the wound.

A commentary in Qiushi, the publication of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party and one of the best reflections on the thinking of cadres, indicated that those who attacked the style of capitalism led by China curb the development of emerging countries, in especially the development of China ".

In trying to "distort, slander and slander the economic system of the Chinese socialist market," these critics were trying to undermine public confidence in China and thwart China's development, said the comment earlier this month. .

These claims in the state media are a reflection of an increasingly common sentiment in the Chinese capital, where President Xi Jinping's government has been trying to determine exactly what Trump is playing.

[[[[China says it will immediately retaliate when Trump tariffs come into force ]

When Trump became president and began to attack China to profit from a trade surplus with the United States, which reached 375 billion dollars last year, Beijing did not think he was serious, said Paul Haenle, a former adviser to China for the Bush and Obama national security councils and now director of the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center in Beijing.

"In the beginning, the Chinese people had a very simple speech about the fact that all these commercial stuff related to Trump's short-term political goals, about getting a tweetable victory," he said. . "Now they are at the other end of the spectrum. The United States is now trying to prevent the rise of China. "

"That's all," he added, "about China as a victim."

To support this theory, Beijing highlights elements such as the United States' exclusion from China earlier this year from Hawaii-based Pacific rim drills, the largest set of international maritime war games. Many Chinese believe that the snub was a punishment for its expansion into the South China Sea, which China considers part of its territory but to which the United States and its regional allies strongly oppose.

Beijing also criticized the resumption of the "Quad" strategic dialogue involving the United States, Japan, Australia and India to try to contain it.

Then there is the Taiwan Travel Act that Trump signed in March, encouraging more interaction between US and Taiwan officials. Beijing sees Taiwan as a renegade separatist province that should be brought back to China.

In addition, US officials have raised the possibility of imposing sanctions on Chinese officials and companies in connection with allegations of human rights violations against Muslims in western China.

Now, reports indicate that the Justice Department ordered the Xinhua News Agency and China Global Television to be registered in the United States as foreign agents.

[[[[New evidence shows China forces Muslims into 're-education' camps ]

"It gives them a feeling that Americans are here to get them," said Michael Kovrig, China Analyst for Crisis Group. "For China, the economy and security are inextricably linked."

It was a chorus that Abigail Grace, who served as China Specialist at Trump National Security Council until early this year, heard a non-stop visit to Beijing this month.

"Everyone I've met said that the trade dispute was not a quick and unique victory, so it had to be part of a broader strategy," said Grace, who is now at the Center for a New American Security in Washington.

[[[[Chinese President Commits to Reducing Investment Restrictions and Tariffs on Automotive Industry ]

Earlier this year, at the Boao Forum, sometimes called Chinese Davos, Xi introduced himself as a champion of the global economy.

"Our nation is bravely committed to self-revolution and self-reform. . . and continued to overcome systematic obstacles, "he said. China would lower tariffs on cars and protect the intellectual property of foreign companies, he said.

But he has made little progress on any of these goals. Trump could just help Beijing to focus.

"Now, Trump has caught the attention of China," said Haenle of the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center. "The administration is talking more and more about structural issues and I think there is tremendous support in the US and around the world to put pressure on China on these issues, and even China knows it has to change . "

But for the time being, China remains firm and refuses to be intimidated by Trump, even though she lacks options to respond to it – a direct result of the US imports. United a lot less than its exports.

China will continue to prosper, the People's Daily said in the recent comment. With "comrade Xi Jinping" and "scientific orientation of Xi Jinping's thinking about socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era", the country would have the confidence "to overcome all the difficulties and obstacles".

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