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- A new tropical depression formed several hundred miles east of the Carolinas.
- She should linger near the Carolinas coast until next week. This system can become a hurricane in the middle of next week.
- It will eventually be pulled east in the Atlantic Ocean later in the week
- At least several days of high seas are possible.
Tropical Depression Three is formed several hundred kilometers southeast of North Carolina. become tropical storm Chris this weekend.
Current State of Storms (The highest peaks, corresponding to the most vigorous convection, are shown in the brightest colors of the red color.Combination, deep convection around the center is a sign of 39, a healthy tropical cyclone.)
Infrared satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms are progressively becoming more numerous and are clustering a few hundred kilometers southeast of Wilmington, Caroline. North, so the National Hurricane Center turned the system into a tropical depression.
The National Hurricane Center says that intensification is likely over the next few days and that it could become a hurricane on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Several flights of hurricane hunters have been scheduled to see how well organized and how strong the system is. The first of these flights is scheduled for Saturday morning.
( PLUS: Update of Hurricane Season Predictions )
Stalling Out
The rest of the forecast at this time is tricky.
This is what the National Hurricane Center proposed by our forecasting reasoning.
This system will not move much in the next few days. The tropical cyclones blocked, like Debby in 2012 are notoriously difficult to predict.
Tropical Depression Three is too far south to be caught by the southward dip of the jet stream, which is currently providing thermal relief to the northeast.
When this jet-flow stream passes this weekend, it will be replaced by another high-altitude expanding heating dome in the Midwest and East.
This new dome will heat the depression near or off Carolina near the end of next week
Why this tropical system is likely to land ]
Where exactly? this system remains uncertain and will hold the key to certain impacts.
If it is too far from the coast, the only impacts on the southeast coast of Virginia to the Carolinas could be waves of high tide, and occasional showers this weekend at the beginning of next week.
If it gets closer to the coast, some areas may experience heavy rains and stronger winds.
Then there is the expected intensity. on the Gulf Stream, where the surface water temperature above average temperatures should allow this system to become a hurricane, assuming that the wind shear remains low and that there is no change. Dry air does not affect the system. But, if this system remains too stationary, it could go up the colder waters and weaken.
By the middle of next week, another dip towards the south of the jet stream should seize this system and send it into the North Atlantic Ocean.
For now, interests along the coast, from southeastern Virginia to North Carolina, should monitor this system. We will have the latest updates here on weather.com.
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