Trump at bay: failure is imminent as Democrats charge "subpoena" | American News

Tthere was sun, palm trees and the infinite expanse of the ocean. There was golf with Jack Nicklaus, the most successful player of all time. There was a dinner that included stone crab, oysters, giant shrimp and clams; turkey, fillet of beef, lamb and salmon; Chilean bar, red snapper and braised ribs.

But while Donald Trump was spending Thanksgiving in his lavish field of Mar-a-Lago – or "Southern White House", as he called it during a teleconference with the army, there had something different on the menu: self-congratulation, grievance and paranoia. The 72-year-old was faced with a glimpse of what life might look like if the electorate forced him to retire early. A long game of golf under the Florida sun.

Trump is approaching half of his presidency and, according to some, a point of no return. The recent midterm elections left him hurt, Democrats in the House were aiming for a "subpoena" to appear in every aspect of his life and the investigation of him. Special advocate Robert Mueller on Russia seems to be coming to an end.

"There is no doubt that we are entering a new territory and Donald Trump is in great trouble," said Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for Policy and Governance Studies at the University of Minnesota. "The election results, no matter what he said, were devastating to him. The coalition he has put in place is clearly tense and he seems unable to create a consensus. "

A little over a month ago, the landscape was very different. Trump celebrated the confirmation of his second justice in the Supreme Court, a trade deal with Canada and Mexico, the release of an American prison pastor in Turkey and the lowest unemployment rate since nearly a year. ;a half-century. He chatted regularly with the media and invited rapper Kanye West to join the party. Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House, predicted to the Guardian, "Unless something terrible happens in the economy, he will be re-elected."

But on November 6, the American people launched a reality test. Republicans sat in the Senate, but as the House's final results roll in, Democrats lead the way with more than 8.6 million votes, from 53.1% to 45.2%. The party has a net gain of nearly 40 seats, its largest since Watergate. Surprisingly, they won in rusty states that were decisive for Trump's victory in 2016.

In response, the president acted like a stuck man. The catalog is too long to be listed in its entirety, but here are some highlights:

• Trump has fired Jeff Sessions and Matthew Whitaker as Acting Attorney General, which many see as a threat to the special advocate.

• He attempted to ban a CNN correspondent at the White House, but lost in court.

• He skipped a visit to a military cemetery in France.

• He criticized the admiral who oversaw the raid that killed Osama bin Laden.

• He presented bizarre theories about wildfires in California, twice called the destroyed city of Paradise "Pleasure" and rejoiced at his ignorance of climate change.

• He called Democrat Adam Schiff "Adam Schitt".

• He issued a puzzling statement (633 words with eight exclamation marks) questioning the CIA's reported conclusion that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is responsible for the death of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi.

• His daughter Ivanka was surprised using a personal email account for government business.

• He reprimanded the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, which resulted in a rare reprimand from the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court.

• It was reported that he wanted the Justice Department to sue Hillary Clinton and former FBI director James Comey.

• He has allowed troops on the US-Mexico border to use "lethal force", despite concerns that their presence is a political blow.

And another thing: the stock market has had its ups and downs, raising fears of an economic downturn.

All this became so important that on Wednesday, Michael Steele, former president of the Republican National Committee, tweeted that Trump should "just close the hell up and get in the helicopter. Give us some rest from your crazy. You do not know the 9th circuit from a circuit breaker. It's Thanksgiving for crying aloud. Let us be grateful for your silence. You've said enough about it this week. "

"There is no learning curve"

Trump's inability to remain silent suggests that he has learned nothing from his election campaign. Other presidents experienced the same fate at mid-term, but they had to bounce back and be re-elected. But they did it by making changes and being humble. When Fox News asked Trump to rank in the Hall of Presidents' Hall of Fame, he awarded himself an A +; when a reporter asked him why he was grateful for Thanksgiving, he spoke for himself.

Jacobs said, "A disaster has hit the Republican Party and everyone, but Trump recognizes it. When Ronald Reagan was hammered in 1982, a major repositioning took place and he won a landslide victory in 1984. When Bill Clinton, George W Bush and Barack Obama were hammered halfway, course corrections were made . There is no learning curve with Donald Trump. He showed that he was unable to react to this reality. "

The situation will only darken, predicted Jacobs. "Clearly, with the investigations that will begin soon in the House, Trump and the Republicans will be able to tarnish the Democrats as obstructionists, but if the Democrats succeed in revealing the corruption, it will undermine Trump's claim to leave run out of money, it will have marshy air.

"It's a totally different scenario in 2019: the analogy is trench warfare in the first world war. The biggest problem in the whole country is that there are not enough Republicans and that, obviously, Trump is motivating young people and independents in ways that we have never seen before. He is very good at mobilizing the base, but the Republican base is not enough to save him in the presidential election. "

Although Trump seems to have conquered the Republican Party, Jacobs believes his members will read the runes, especially the Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell, known for his ruthlessness. Jeff Flake, the outgoing Arizona senator, called on Trump to meet a major challenge.

Jacobs said, "I see the situation worsening on all these fronts in 2020. Is it inconceivable that [outgoing United Nations ambassador] Nikki Haley would explore a race? I think the conversation is going in that direction. "

It has long been assumed that Trump had something to hide: his tax returns, his commercial relations, his special dedication to autocrats. Now, all are about to be examined under the microscope by Schiff and others.

There are also signs that Mueller's investigation could reach a critical phase, with Trump submitting written responses and indicating that a new round of WikiLeaks and Roger Stone-based indictments is imminent. The fact that Trump is paranoid does not mean they are not ready to take it.

Rick Tyler, a political analyst and Republican consultant, said, "Donald Trump seems to be worried about two things. First, he is obviously concerned about the Mueller report. If it was a simple matter of ego and if Russia helped him to get elected, it is an overreaction. There is something else going on.

"Second, if you analyze the incident of Saudi Arabia and Khashoggi, what Trump says makes no sense. Saudi Arabia is not going to cancel the contracts and has only a negligible impact on the cost of oil and gas. Still, Trump promoted the terrible cover story. He's hiding something. There is something there. He does not protect the Crown Prince; he protects himself. "

"He has real talent"

According to Gallup, Trump is the only president of the modern era whose approval ratings have never exceeded 50%. Said Tyler. "Say what you like about Donald Trump, he has real talent. But he abused his talents. He could have reached an agreement on a big package of infrastructure, for example. But he retired to his base, which has only the potential for shrinkage. It keeps the base united by keeping them angry and humans can only stay angry for so long. "

The most loyal supporters of Trump are unshakable. Gingrich said by e-mail: "Reagan had obtained 35% approval in January 1983. If President Trump adopts a strategy of broadening the base, letting Democrats wade into negative and fantastic political ideas he will carry it easily. If Trump lets the media and the democrats drag him into a constant negative struggle for anecdotes, the elections will be tight. "

Fox News analyst Sebastian Gorka, a former deputy assistant to Trump, described the president in a downward spiral as "wishful thinking" and predicted victory in 2020. "Cake walk," he writes in a series of text messages. "With liars and dollars like Schiff and Crazy Maxine [Waters] committees being run ?? Even Dem voters will be mad.

Perhaps the Democrats are spoiling themselves to fight. Kurt Bardella, A political columnist and former congressional spokesman said: "We will see for the first time under his presidency a substantial decline on the part of the Congress. Democrats will no longer comment passively. they will be able to take concrete steps to find out what is going on in this administration.

"Starting in January, Congress has the tools and mechanisms to push further and do more than be indignant. They can hold hearings, obtain documents, compel testimony. They can have access to people around the White House and see what happens, according to them: do people ring the alarm?

"I do not think Trump understands how comprehensive control tools are for Congress, because he never had to tackle them. These tentacles go much further and further than he can know. We will see a completely different level of paranoia with the president testing the limits of executive power like no other president before, as the walls draw closer. "