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Last week's split-screen – former President Barack Obama debuted in the campaign crying the start of White House decency and legality while President Trump called the Justice Department to hunt down a personal enemy the medium-term dynamic.
For Democrats and Republicans, and especially for the 45th President himself, it is Trump.
Mid-term campaign cycles have traditionally focused on the party in power. Opposition to the Iraq war by former President George W. Bush fueled the 2006 Democratic wave, while a brutal reaction to Obama's health law fueled the Republican takeover of 2010 .
But this year promises to be different. The November 6 election that will determine congressional control should depend on the president – man and his thoughtless actions, more than his policies – to a remarkable extent.
The skyrocketing of Democratic enthusiasm, which is causing Republicans to fear losing their majority in the House, can largely be explained by the opposition to Trump, his attacks on civilian institutions, his impetuosity and the chaos that lurks. 'surrounded.
"Since coming to the escalator to announce his presidential campaign, he has been the only important element in politics," said Josh Holmes, GOP consultant and former chief of staff to Senate Majority Leader Mitch. McConnell (R-Ky.). "His presidency is ubiquitous and your ability to qualify and communicate that which does not directly involve him is completely overshadowed by a complete avalanche of information and knowledge and an analysis of what the president is doing."
President Trump greets the crowd at a rally in Billings, Mt., Sept. 6, 2018. (NICHOLAS KAMM / AFP / Getty Images)
Labor Day unofficially marks the beginning of the fall campaign, and last week it highlighted how much Trump colors the fall landscape, like so many leaves that change.
John McCain's funeral was as much a commemoration of the Vietnam war hero as the senator-statesman, because it was a Washington rumor about Trump's existential threat.
Throughout the week, the President had doubts about his intellectual abilities and his ability to perform his duties. A new report in Bob Woodward's book "Fear", coupled with an anonymous New York Times editorial written by a senior administration official, revealed that some of Trump's top advisers were so alarmed by his whims and wanted to its directives.
[‘A never-ending cycle’: Book, op-ed show how some Trump aides work to curb his instincts]
Trump's stories all consumed. Congress candidates who may have preferred to sell their own messages were forced to weigh and gasped for the Trumpian news cycle.
Former President Barack Obama speaks at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign on September 7, 2018. (JOHN GRESS / Reuters)
"All that is happening is Donald Trump, first, last and always," said Democratic pollster Peter Hart.
This is partly thanks to the design of the president.
"Trump has demonstrated his mastery of winning the news every day," said Sen. Christopher A. Coons (D-Del.). "No matter what happens in our country or in the world, he wants to be the subject of news, and he has sometimes taken dramatic, sometimes alarming, often troubling measures to make sure he is what we are talking about. by the way, for better or for worse, almost every day.
The punch of the Woodward book and the anonymous Times column inspired Trump to make the extraordinary decision to publicly defend his mental capacity.
"I can not get up and talk in front of a crowd, often without notes, for an hour and 25 minutes and get the biggest crowds in the history of politics. . . you do not get up and do it because you do not know how to think or talk, "Trump told reporters on Friday aboard the Air Force One. "You can only do it if you are at a very high level. I am very educated and always successful, always good, no matter what I did.
The day before, at a campaign rally in Billings, Mt., Trump summed up the program of the Democratic campaign in one word: Impeach. The over-simplification of the president was at the heart of the campaign, with Trump offering his political future as a central reason to vote Republican.
"They like to use the word impeach. "Impeach Trump," he said. "I say," How do you attack someone who does a great job and does nothing wrong? " ". . . If that happens, it's your fault, because you did not go to vote.
Obama stepped out Friday of political hibernation to deliver an important speech exposing the Democrats' case for the mid-term elections. Although he is not in office, he is the most prominent national leader of the Democrats and took the opportunity to launch a call to the party's volatile base.
Even Obama, who until then had fired his shots and carefully avoided appointing Trump, has found himself addressing his successor directly and forcefully. He described Trump as a "symptom" of a dark shift in the nation's policy towards bigotry, the campaign of fear, corruption, dishonesty and erosion of institutions.
"This is not normal," said Obama at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. "These are extraordinary moments. And they are dangerous. But here is the good news. In two months, we have the chance – not the certainty, but the luck – to give a semblance of health to our policy. "
Obama again urged his audience to get involved in election politics at a Saturday rally in California for seven candidates vying for House seats in the districts held by Republicans. "In these times of uncertainty, it is always tempting for politicians to earn a living and people in power to see if they can divide people, scapegoats, oppose them," he said. he declares. "The biggest threat to our democracy, as I said yesterday, is not an individual. This is not a super PAC billionaire. It's apathy.
Two months before the elections, the Democrats have a clear advantage over the Republicans. A poll conducted by Washington Post-ABC News late last month revealed that registered voters favor the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate in their congressional district, from 52% to 38%. The investigation also revealed a general disapproval of Trump's professional performance and unrest with the political system in general.
Sixty-five percent of registered voters said it was more important to vote in the November 6 elections than in the midterm elections and 59% said it was important to vote for a candidate who shares his opinion on Trump.
"As long as the Democrats continue to have intensity and fire, this election will become solid blue," Hart said.
David Wasserman, who analyzes House's races for the Cook Political Report, said the GOP was struggling to motivate Trump's supporters to vote mid-term. "The reason is that Trump voters have never liked congressional Republicans," he said. "They do not feel so strongly about unnamed Trump candidates."
But Michael Steel, a Republican strategist, said, "There will be districts and congressional states where the president's enthusiastic support and the encouragement of the president's powerful supporters to prevent Mr. Washington from indicting him will suffice. .
Some Trump advisers hope that even if the president's popularity figures are low, his policy and strong economy will be enough to help Republicans resist the Democrats.
"You can hate the president, and many people do, but they certainly love the way the country is going," said the White House budget director in Manhattan at a conference of the Republican National Committee. obtained by the Washington Post. "If you find a way to subtract from this equation what they think of the president, the numbers increase dramatically."
[Poll: Democrats regain clear advantage in midterms shaping up as referendum on President Trump]
The ubiquitous president exerted a disproportionate influence on the Republican primaries earlier this year. In Florida, Trump's endorsement of governor candidate Ron DeSantis against Adam Putnam, who has been the heir to the GOP for years, has transformed the contest. In the last few weeks, DeSantis has aired a television ad posing as a Trump sidekick, with images of him and his toddler building a wall with colorful bricks and his reading of "Trump: the art of the deal" . DeSantis beat Putnam, the first favorite, by 20 percentage points.
And in Arizona, Trump did not approve a candidate in the Senate but nevertheless dominated the main field of the three. Representative Martha McSally entered the race by highlighting her irresistible personal story of military service, but at the end of the match, she struggled to prove her good faith to Trump. The tactic helped her defeat conservative activist Kelly Ward and former sheriff Joe Arpaio, both seen as genuine Trump allies.
A preliminary test of whether a Republican candidate could run independently of Trump came last year to Virginia, where the president found a magnetic force. Gillespie tried to portray himself as a "big tent" Republican, with a broad appeal to moderate voters, but in the end he became Trumpified, with an intransigent immigration speech. He lost to Democrat Ralph Northam, 45% to 54%.
Trump is blocked by political reality, he is not welcome everywhere. In many suburban areas of the city, ready to change the elections, beleaguered Republican leaders fear that their association with Trump will harm their chances and make it clear that they do not want a presidential visit.
So, Trump traveled mainly to the states he wore during the 2016 elections. He visited Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota last week and will be heading to Mississippi and Missouri this week . But his noisy gatherings are televised live on cable television, and his free remarks often turn the next day on to the national news cycle, consumed by eloquent voters who his itinerary is designed to avoid.
While some policies galvanize voters – like health care, the economy or immigration – strategists on both sides say the other motivator will be this fall.
"The three pillars of democracy are rising wages, fixing health care and fighting corruption," said Adrienne Elrod, Democratic strategist. "But I do not think you can enjoy the fact that people are scared of Trump, and if that drives them to vote in record numbers midway through, then it's fantastic."
Holmes said Trump "has not handed the same policy to the opposition that President Obama has made with Obamacare or President Bush with the Iraq war. For example, the separation of the family was a major problem that had been solved in a week. The important political responsibility does not exist in this electoral cycle ".
According to Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher, House candidates in some suburban neighborhoods he advises focus on conventional policy issues. But he added that female college graduates and other targeted voters in these districts were turning to Democrats largely because of "absolute frustration and disgust" with Trump and Republicans' reluctance to hold him accountable.
"In the vast majority of training districts, our advertising does not speak to Donald Trump at all, because we do not have to," said Belcher. "Almost every week, Donald Trump does something that makes these suburban women catch their pearls."
Josh Dawsey, Michael Scherer and Gabriel Pogrund contributed to this report.
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