Trump engages in a long cold war with Iran

"Our goal is to force the regime to a clear choice: abandon its destructive behavior or continue on the path of economic disaster," said Trump in a statement Friday night.

The underlying premise of the administration's policy is that Iran is economically weak, uninterested in a military confrontation with the United States – and that Washington can impose changes over the decades on Iranian reconfigure the Middle East, according to officials and experts.

But senior Iranian officials insist that Tehran not withdraw or negotiate. Former US officials with long experience say that Tehran has cards to play, including trying to get around the sanctions in the hope that Mr. Trump will be a president with a warrant and enjoy the lingering turmoil in the region to create new challenges for the president. United States and its allies.

"Iran is gaining ground in the region, and I do not see these sanctions as a reversal," said Jeffrey Feltman, senior state department chief for Middle East issues from 2009 to 2012, then Deputy Secretary General of the United Nations. for political affairs.

A quick test of the Trump Administration's "maximum pressure" sanctions campaign will take place in Syria. The White House has sought the help of Russian President Vladimir Putin to urge Iranian forces and Shiite militias to give up leaving the country – unsuccessfully so far.

Administration officials are now calculating that drastic economic measures can lead Iran to declare its military mission accomplished in Syria and to bring its forces back home. US authorities have published figures claiming that Iran has about $ 700 million to support its Lebanese ally, Hezbollah, while Tehran has spent at least $ 16 billion in recent years to support its allies in Syria, in Yemen and Iraq.

Some former US officials say, however, that Iran's support for the Assad regime and Hezbollah is a top priority that Tehran will try to maintain at all costs.

"They are investing heavily in Syria, and the IRGC is not going anywhere," said Ryan Crocker, a former US diplomat, referring to the paramilitary guards of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, Iran.

At a meeting with journalists and editors of the Wall Street Journal last month, Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif described Iran's military presence in Syria as defensive and challenged the government. Idea that his forces had to withdraw.

"We believe that if we do not fight the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, we will have to fight it in Iran," Zarif said. "Our people recognize it."

Iran's nuclear activities are another area in which the Trump administration's strategy will be put to the test.

Iran has rejected US requests to accept much more stringent restrictions on its nuclear program than those imposed by the 2015 agreement negotiated by the Obama administration and disavowed by Mr. Trump. At the same time, Iran has embraced Europe's calls for adherence to the 2015 agreement that Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China are trying to preserve.

But Zarif said Tehran could ease its membership of the deal if the economic benefits it hopes to get from the deal will not materialize.

"We have the opportunity to partially reduce our commitment," Zarif said. "We will have to make this decision when the time comes."

Such an initiative could add to the tensions between Europe and Washington over how to deal with Iran's nuclear capability.

"Their strategy is now to hope that Trump will be weakened by the mid-term elections and will not be re-elected in 2020, which is essentially a wait-and-see approach," said Karim Sadjadpour, Iran's expert at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a non-partisan think tank.

"But their economy is in bad shape and the trend lines will only get worse," he added. "They could soon conclude that they have more weight by restoring their nuclear activities – not by going from 0 to 100, but from 0 to 20."

In order to persuade Iran to stick to the 2015 agreement, the European Union is moving towards the establishment of a payment mechanism special in order to maintain economic ties with Iran. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Friday he did not expect the channel to be effective against US pressure.

Iran should also reactivate its long-standing ability to evade sanctions, seeking to avoid economic bullets from Washington. But the Trump administration has vowed to crack down.

In an August tweet, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, claimed that Iran would not defy the United States militarily. "THERE WILL BE NO WAR, NOR NEGOTIATION WITH THE UNITED STATES," he wrote.

Despite the Ayatollah 's statement, some experts believe the regime might take it – perhaps even regional proxies or secret operations that Tehran would publicly deny – in response to the government' s announcement. heightened economic pressure and calls from state secretary Mike Pompeo to the Iranians: "restore democracy."

"Someone remembers Beirut in 1983?" Said Mr Crocker, referring to the bomb attack on a US Navy barracks in Beirut. "They can find a way to make life hard for us."

Iran trained and equipped the Shia militias that attacked US forces during the Iraq war. Until now, these militias have refrained from attacking US military advisers who have returned to Iraq for the campaign against the Islamic State. But the State Department announced in September the closure of the US consulate in Basra, citing the security risks of the forces backed by Iran.

Even ardent supporters of Iran's administration policy recognize the risks.

"The administration has invested a lot of energy to tighten the sanctions as much as possible," said John Hannah, advisor to former vice president Dick Cheney and senior advisor to the Defense Foundation of the United States. democracies. urged the government to impose harsh sanctions on Iran.

"I hope that they have spent so much time planning all the ways in which Iran could use terrorism, proxies and cyber-weapons to disrupt oil markets, destabilize our allies and attack the world." American interests, "he added.

Write to Michael R. Gordon at [email protected]