Trump feeds debate on the new Cold War arms race

President TrumpDonald John Trump Four keynote speeches from Heitkamp and Cramer on the latest Senate debate Obama stabbed Trump: "No one in my administration has been charged." The suspect's family lawyer: "He found a father to Trump "SUITEThe announcement that the United States is preparing to withdraw from a decades-old treaty with Russia, which is supposed to help end the Cold War, has fueled the debate over whether a new race for armaments was on the horizon.

Trump has suspended its decision to unilaterally withdraw on the argument that Moscow has been violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty for several years, which is why current and former leaders and analysts are largely concerned. 39; agreement.

Nevertheless, the timing of the move has prompted criticism and raised questions about what this might mean for the global strategic landscape. Some believe that the United States will now seek to deploy new missile systems in Asia and Europe.

Concerns have also been expressed about the significance of the decision for a separate treaty called New START, which limits the number of nuclear warheads that the United States and Russia are allowed to deploy and must be extended in 2021.

Indeed, on Monday, Trump pledged to "strengthen" the US nuclear arsenal to put pressure on other countries to sit at the table of future agreements.

"Until people come to their senses, we will build it," Trump told reporters outside the White House. "It's a threat to whoever you want. And that includes China. And that includes Russia. And that includes all the others who want to play this game. "

Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are scheduled to meet on November 11 in Paris. Trump has invited Putin to visit Washington next year. Both meetings represent opportunities for further discussion on the fate of the treaty.

The historic INF Treaty, signed in 1987 by President Reagan and Soviet Union leader Mikhail Gorbachev, abolished conventional and nuclear ballistic and cruise missiles launched on the ground, with a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometers.

The Obama administration first publicly accused Russia of violating the treaty in 2014, and US officials tried unsuccessfully to use diplomatic levers to bring Moscow back to comply with the law for four years. Moscow denies having violated the agreement.

"The United States is trying to get Russia to comply with the INF Treaty again since 2013. We have been working with them for five years and we have made no progress," said Frank Rose, secretary of the 39. Deputy state. for gun control under President Obama. "I've always been skeptical that the Russians would return to compliance for political and military reasons."

Following Trump's announcement, those who helped negotiate her defended its continued usefulness. Gorbachev and Reagan Secretary of State George Shultz both wrote editorials for the New York Times on Friday in which they pleaded for the preservation of the treaty.

"A new arms race has been announced," warned the 87-year-old former Soviet leader.

"This is not the time to build bigger arsenals of nuclear weapons," wrote Shultz, 97, in his editorial. "The time has come to rid the world of this threat. To leave the treaty would be a huge step backwards. We should fix it, not kill it. "

Detractors of the withdrawal, including many noisy Democrats on Capitol Hill, have acknowledged the violations committed by Russia, but blamed the president for failing to consult with US allies or Congress in the decision-making process.

Some also argue that he urges Russia to build capacity while tensions are deep.

"Yes, the Russians are violating the treaty. Yes, it is unacceptable. Yes, this requires a firm response, "said Kingston Reif, Director of Disarmament and Threat Reduction at the Arms Control Association.

"But a total withdrawal as announced by President Trump is a serious mistake. The withdrawal of this treaty frees Russia from all the constraints in the production and deployment of its cruise missile launched illegally on the ground, thus increasing the threat to our allies within range of the missile, "added Reif.

Trump has earned some praise from those who view the INF Treaty as a mere constraint for the United States, given the violations committed on the Russian side.

"Arms control treaties only work if both sides respect them," said Tom Spoehr, defense expert for the conservative Heritage Foundation. "So, if only one side sticks to that … there is no point in trying to continue to respect it for yourself."

Spoehr also said he saw no risk in Trump's decision. "The Russia you have in the absence of an INF treaty is the Russia you have today," he said.

Trump National Security Advisor John Bolton has been advocating for the withdrawal of the treaty for years. In 2011, before the Obama administration publicly confirmed the violation committed by Russia, Bolton wrote an editorial for the Wall Street Journal, in which it was claimed that the US had to abandon the treaty because of China .

China is not party to the INF Treaty, and a large part of its missile forces would fall within the parameters of the treaty.

This week, Bolton described Russia's treaty violations as a "major factor" in the decision. But he also claimed that a "new strategic reality" had made the treaty unsustainable, citing the emerging capabilities of China, North Korea, and Iran.

"There is a new strategic reality," said Bolton. "This is a bilateral treaty relating to the ballistic missiles of the cold war in a world of multipolar ballistic missiles."

The Trump administration has taken a more aggressive stance on Beijing on a number of fronts, including facing China's land claims in the South China Sea through routine patrols of warships.

Some suspect that the United States will seek to strengthen its land-based missile capabilities in the Pacific region in order to counter Chinese aggression in the absence of INF-imposed constraints.

"I think the United States will probably start pursuing similar long-range precision fires designed to counter Russian missiles in violation of the treaty, and will probably also be of interest to China and to the way in which these types of missiles reinforce our position against China, "said Ian Williams, an expert in missile defense and strategic forces at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Reif, of the Arms Control Association, however, said that ending the INF treaty was useless to counter China. This can be accomplished with treaty-based air and submarine launch missiles, which the US military has already, he said.

In addition, he added, it is unlikely that Asian and European allies want to host US medium-range missiles on the ground, which means that the United States will have limited deployment opportunities, even if they withdraw from the treaty.

Bolton announced this week that a notice of official withdrawal would be released "on time", hinting that it could take months. Under the terms of the treaty, the United States must formally notify Russia, beginning a six-month withdrawal process.

It is possible that Trump, who has a penchant for aggressive bargaining tactics, is using the threat of withdrawal to bring the Russians into compliance, although experts widely doubt that Moscow will eventually accept.

Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Bob CorkerRobert (Bob) Phillips Corker – Night Defense: Mattis officially approves troops for the border | The number to deploy is not clear | Key official confirms plan to cut defense budget | Putin invited to Washington next year, Erdogan asks Saudi Arabia to indicate who gave the order to kill Khashoggi Corker after the imminent departure of his departure (R-Tenn.) Expressed this hope shortly after Trump announced his decision.

"It could be a bit like the fact that they were going to end NAFTA and then negotiate small changes," Corker told CNN last weekend. "And it seems like it's going to be extended. So, this could be something that is just a precursor to try to bring Russia into compliance. "

Bolton insisted, however, that Trump's announcement was not a bargaining ploy.

Republicans of the House Armed Services Committee this week sent an "information sheet" outlining the reasons for the withdrawal, indicating that concerns about Russia's violations date back to 2008 and that continued respect by United States had resulted in a "disparity" between Chinese Missile Forces.

"In the face of growing threats from Russia and China, President Trump has no choice but to withdraw from a treaty to which only the United States adheres," the courier said. electronic.

Their Democratic counterparts, however, are furious. Member of the Armed Services Classification, Rep. Adam SmithDavid (Adam) Adam SmithNight Defense: Saudi Crown Prince calls Khashoggi to commit "heinous crime" in first public speech | Dems demands a briefing on the departure of Trump's arms control treaty | Lawmakers want an investigation into the Pentagon's cloud computing contract Dems asks Mattis and Pompeo to take stock of Trump's withdrawal from the arms control treaty Past mistakes should guide relations with the US government. Saudi Arabia MORE (D-Wash.) And high-ranking member of the commission's Foreign Affairs Committee, Rep. Eliot EngelEliot Lance Engel – Night Defense: Saudi Crown Prince calls Khashoggi to commit "heinous crime" in first public speech | Dems demands a briefing on the departure of Trump's arms control treaty | Lawmakers want an investigation into the Pentagon's cloud computing deal: Dems asks Mattis, Pompeo's briefing, about Trump's withdrawal from the arms control treaty. (D-N.Y.) Wrote this week a four-page letter, Secretary of Defense James MattisJames Norman Mattis Night Defense: Mattis officially approves troops for the border | The number to deploy is not clear | Key official confirms plan to cut defense budget | Next year, Putin invited to Washington DC: the No. 2 Pentagon confirms the plans for reduction of the defense budget Mattis approves plans to send troops to the border MORE and secretary of state Mike PompeoMichael (Mike) Richard Pompeo – 12:30 report on the hill – A suspect arrested for bombings | Trump swears "quick and certain justice" | Two More Explosives Sent to Booker, Clapper Report from The Hill & # 39; s Morning – Presented by PhRMA – Tensions Are Rising in Washington After Corker's Imminent Departure Bombing Calls for Saudi Sanctions MORE demanding that they personally inform legislators of Trump's decision.

House Armed Services Democrats also sent an e-mail Friday to the Shultz forum.

According to Smith and Engel, moving away from the INF Treaty would risk a nuclear arms race, play in Putin's hands, separate the United States from its allies and ignore the government's own scrutiny of how to respond to violations by Russia.

"We are waiting for a full explanation of why the Congress was not even informed of such a decision," they wrote, "as well as reasons why the administration has chosen to take such hasty measures, misguided – and potentially foolhardy – than to work with our allies to increase pressure on Russia to return to compliance under the treaty. "