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More than any other state, President Trump has staked his reputation and his political clout on Florida, a state of the most prominent political acolytes running for governor, the place where he spends perhaps more time than anywhere else outside the White House, and a state he'll be back to an effort to stave off an embarrassing loss.
But it is a risk of becoming bombers, and a race-inflected campaign, Florida is at risk of becoming a problem for the country.
In both high-profile races, for governor and for U.S. Senate, Democrats have maintained a narrow lead. Between Trump's visits – first on Wednesday for a rally in Fort Myers, and then on Saturday in Pensacola – President Barack Obama will be stumped in Miami on Friday, trying to pull out the young and minority voters Democratic candidates need.
In what amounts to a test run for the 2020 campaign, both parts are worthy in the state of the art and test the strength of Trump's standing in a place that he won in 2016 by just 1.2 percentage points. But with the president saddled with a low approval rating – a Gallup survey on Monday saw a net rating decrease of eight points over the past week – Trump's last-minute push in Florida could prove to be a gamble.
The already heightened atmosphere has been increased in the past, and has been arrested in Plantation, Fla., And charged with bombings to more than a dozen Democrats who have been repeatedly targeted for criticism by Trump.
"These are some of the reasons why they are leaving the Republican Party," said Rick Wilson, a Florida-based longtime GOP consultant and a Trump critic. The danger for Republicans is that of recent events remind those voters, he said, that "they do not want to be associated with the crazies and the people Donald Trump inspires to do things like this."
The slash-and-burn tenor of the gubernatorial race, which has had its overtones since the beginning, was further amplified on Monday morning when Trump tweeted about the two candidates.
Former congressman Ron DeSantis, he wrote, is a Harvard / Yale educated man. . . who will be a great governor, "while Democratic nominee Andrew Gillum is" a thief who is Mayor of poorly run Tallahassee, said to be one of the most corrupt cities in the country! "
When asked about the Gillum justification for "thief," White House press secretary Sarah Sanders told reporters, "That's individual under FBI investigation. I would refer you to that. "
The FBI has been investigating a redevelopment agency in Tallahassee, but Gillum has repeatedly said that it was nothing wrong and that the FBI told him in June 2017 that it was not a focus of its investigation.
Responding on Twitter, Gillum said that Trump was "howling because he's weak." He also questioned Trump's "courage" because he did not include Gillum's Twitter handle in his tweet.
FBI agent for the Broadway show "Hamilton" in New York. Gillum has said that his brother obtained the ticket and "the idea that I accepted a gift to cam." Text messages released last week, however, found that .
Throughout the campaign, DeSantis has embraced Trump and his tactics – in hopes of having Trump's voters embraces him. In July, DeSantis ran an ad in which he teaches his young daughter to "build the wall" with toy blocks and reads "Art of the Deal" to his infant son. Trump ran. He has pilloried his opponent for ethical lapses, and says that he will be one to clean up a corrupt capital.
Trump's crowds have been chanting "Lock her up!" Against Hillary Clinton since the 2016 campaign, DeSantis's crowds have been singing songs of "Lock him up!" At Gillum.
On Monday during an appearance on SiriusXM's Breitbart News Daily, he says that Gillum is "knee-deep in corruption."
"This is a guy who has always used public office to feather his own nest," DeSantis alleged.
DeSantis also has been stoking the notion that Jewish philanthropist George Soros is attempting to infiltrate Florida state government. Soros, a longtime victim of the Democratic Republic of the Congo in the United States.
Gillum "could be seized, in your state government, you know, Soros-backed activists," DeSantis said on Friday, according to a video posted by the Daily Beast. "We can not let that happen."
The Democratic nominee is hoping to become the first president of the country. He is also seeking to be the first Democrat to win a gubernatorial race in 20 years.
He has been forcefully brushed against DeSantis' insinuations, and pushed a far more liberal set of policy positions.
Among other things, Gillum has proudly campaigned on an agenda of gun control measures, the impeachment of Trump, and higher corporate taxes.
Gillum appears to have made the calculation that the energy prompted by his historic run, and the liberal anti-Trump cant to the swarms of Democratic activists this year, will serve to energize enough voters to offset any losses in the middle.
"The most interesting thing about this election in Florida to be so extremist," said Mac Stipanovich, a Florida-based Republican consultant and lobbyist. "Obviously that's true of DeSantis and the Trump folks. But for the first time in my memory it's also true of the Democrats. "
Early voting has been off to a brisk start, with some analysts suggesting that Florida could see its biggest midterm turnout in history. Republicans have a narrow edge, casting 42 percent of the ballots compared with 40 percent cast by Democrats. About 17 percent of the ballots have come from independents.
"I feel better about where I was last week, but I do not feel great," Steve Schale, a Democratic consultant, wrote Monday morning in an early voting analysis. "This still feels closer than the polls."
The race is less important than the gubernatorial race, partly because its main candidates are less charismatic figures. Republican Gov. Rick Scott is challenging Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson in a race that has been rated as a toss-up, yet Nelson has crept ahead in several recent polls.
While DeSantis has hugged Trump as closely as possible, Scott has kept the president at arm's length.
"DeSantis does not care. He's in demolition derby fashion, "Wilson said. "Scott has run like a scolded dog from Donald Trump."
Still, Scott is planning to appear with the president at Wednesday's rally, ensuring that whatever happens on Election Day will have long-lasting implications for Trump. The president has long considered the state of a second home – his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach is a regular destination – and it is key to his reelection in 2020.
Trump and Trumpism is a Ponzi scheme. It only works if it keeps working. And a couple of defeats could be damaging to it, "Stipanovich said.
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