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The greatest success of President Donald Trump's long commercial battles has been achieved through a revised trade agreement with Canada and Mexico.
But recent statements by key members of Congress have potentially cast the future of this deal in question.
The doubts of the leading Democrats and a group of Conservative MPs created new concerns that the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which had been approved by the three September 30, will be able to move from Congress to the United States. important changes.
The USMCA, which is primarily an update of the existing North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), would make adjustments to the rules for cars, dairy products and other products circulating between the United States, Canada and Mexico.
However, some of the smaller details of the agreement could also lead to difficulties.
Democratic refoulement
The USMCA has always weathered the wind as it advanced during a time of great political uncertainty, such as the move to the Mexican presidency and the mid-term elections in the United States.
Before entering into force, the legislature of each country must adopt the USMCA:
- In the United States, Trump has renegotiated NAFTA under what is called the Trade Promotion Authority, or TPA.
- Under the TPA, only a majority of lawmakers must vote for the USMCA to be passed.
- But waiting times with TPA mean that a vote will probably not take place before the next congress convenes in January.
- Democrats will have a chance to leave their mark on the Trump agreement, since the president will have to convince at least a handful to get the contract.
Democrats in general are more skeptical about free trade agreements than their counterparts in the GOP. The original NAFTA had been passed with a majority Republican vote despite President Bill Clinton's agreement. Meanwhile, former President Barack Obama needed significant support from the GOP to negotiate the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Although it is not possible to make significant changes to the text – which would force Trump to reopen negotiations with Mexico and Canada – legislation can help determine the level of enforcement of parts of the USMCA .
Representative Bill Pascrell, who could lead the House's Criticism Committee on Ways and Means next year, told Bloomberg that the USMCA could not move as it is. He added that it was necessary "not only to modify the legislation, but to further enforce the law" in the agreement so that enough Democrats are present.
Other Democrats have also expressed fears. Representative Nancy Pelosi, considered the favorite of the House, called for strengthening the pro-union and environmental aspects of the agreement by making them legally enforceable, instead of mere directives.
"The most important of all is the enforcement provisions in terms of work and the environment," Pelosi told the New York Times. "Application, execution, execution."
Read more: A senior Republican senator has just said that the new trade deal between Trump and Mexico could still collapse
But among the first hesitations, most analysts expect the agreement to be finally reached. If the Democrats do not accept the deal, Trump could threaten to pull the US completely out of NAFTA – which would be an economic disaster – and the Democrats do not have the ## 147 ## 39, another choice.
"We think this will happen early next year, because we do not think the Democrats will derail the USMCA without a viable alternative, just to deprive Trump of a 'win' "said Nancy Vanden Houten, Senior Economist at Oxford Economics. mid-term note to customers.
Repression of preservatives
Given Democrat hesitations, Trump needs the almost unanimous support of his own party to ensure the passage of the USMCA.
On this front, a small clause in the agreement could actually provoke a revolt among the government.
Forty conservative members of the House of Representatives sent Friday a letter to Trump expressing his dissatisfaction with a USMCA provision that requires member states to strengthen the protection of LGBT people at the venue. working.
Members of the House argue that the agreement could force the United States to significantly change labor law in order to make sexual orientation and gender identity a protected class – or risk being removed from the critical economic agreement.
"A trade agreement is not a place for the adoption of a social policy," the letter says. "It is particularly inappropriate and insulting for our sovereignty to unnecessarily subject ourselves to social policies that the US Congress has so far explicitly refused to accept."
Read more: The new trade pact between the United States, Canada and Mexico is very much like NAFTA. Here are the main differences between them.
Losing 40 members of the GOP in the House would require more than 50 Democrats to flip-flop and support the deal for it to be passed, which is highly unlikely.
But making such changes would be difficult. The text of the agreement is to be signed at the G20 summit on November 30, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will likely not accept any side deal to allow the US to ease protections.
But without these changes, conservatives believe that the deal could be in trouble.
"This is a language that will drive many people to reconsider their support for the trade agreement and to undermine the passage of this trade agreement unless something is done," said GOP Representative Doug Lamborn , in Politico, Friday.
