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WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A US withdrawal from a nuclear arms treaty with Russia dating back to the end of the Cold War could give the Pentagon new options to counter the advance of Chinese missiles, but the experts warn that the arms race could heighten tensions in Asia-Pacific.
President of the United States, Donald Trump, speaks at a campaign rally of US Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) in Houston, Texas, United States, October 22, 2018. REUTERS / Leah Millis
US authorities have warned for years that the United States is at a disadvantage by China's development of increasingly sophisticated land-based missile forces, which the Pentagon could not match thanks to the US-Russia treaty. .
President Donald Trump said that he could soon give the Pentagon greater freedom to deal with these advances, he was keen to avoid the withdrawal of the Mid-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which required the elimination of nuclear and conventional weapons in the short and medium range. missiles.
Dan Blumenthal, former head of the Pentagon at the American Enterprise Institute, said that a treaty withdrawal could pave the way for the United States to set up conventional missiles that are easier to conceal and mobile, such as than Guam and Japan.
It would be more difficult for China to consider a first conventional strike against US ships and bases in the region. It could also force Beijing into an expensive arms race, forcing China to spend more on missile defense.
"This will fundamentally change the image," Blumenthal said.
Although Trump attributed his decision to Russia's treaty violations, he also blamed China. Beijing was not party to the INF Treaty and was deploying new, more deadly missile forces.
Among them, the DF-26 ballistic missile (IRBM) of China, whose maximum range is 4,000 km and which, according to the Pentagon, may threaten US forces based on land and sea as far as the sea. 39, Guam Island, Pacific. . It was commissioned for the first time in 2016.
"If Russia does it (by developing these missiles) and China does it and we adhere to it, it's unacceptable," Trump said Sunday.
John Bolton, a national security adviser to the White House, pointed out that recent Chinese statements suggested Washington's continuation in the treaty.
And that's perfectly understandable. If I were Chinese, I would say the same thing, "he told Echo Moskvy radio station. "Why are the Americans not linked and the Chinese are not linked?"
GROWING THREAT
US authorities have so far relied on other capabilities to counterbalance China, such as missiles from US ships or planes. But advocates of an American response to land-based missiles say that it is the best way to deter the Chinese from using its land-based muscle missile forces.
Kelly Magsamen, who helped shape the Pentagon's Asian policy under the Obama administration, said China's ability to work outside the INF treaty had upset Washington's policymakers long before it took office. Trump function.
But she warned that any new American missile deployment policy in Asia should be carefully coordinated with her allies, which does not seem to have happened yet.
Mismanagement of the expectations of withdrawing from a US treaty could also disrupt security in Asia-Pacific, she warned.
"It's potentially destabilizing," she said.
Experts warned that China would pressure countries in the region to deny US requests for missile installations in that country.
Abraham Denmark, former top Pentagon official under Obama, said that Guam, Japan and even Australia were possible sites for US missile deployment.
"But there are a lot of questions about the alliance that at first glance seem very difficult," he warned.
Nevertheless, former and current US officials have said that Washington is right to focus on the threat posed by China's missiles. Harry Harris, who led US military forces in the Pacific before becoming US ambassador to Seoul, said earlier this year that the United States was at a disadvantage.
"We have no ground capability (missile) that could threaten China, among other things, by our strict adherence to the treaty," Harris said at a March Senate hearing without request that the treaty be canceled.
Asked about Trump's comments, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that a unilateral withdrawal of the United States would have a negative impact and urged the United States to "think three times before acting" .
"Talking about China on the issue of unilateral treaty withdrawal is totally wrong," spokeswoman Hua Chunying said.
Report by Phil Stewart; additional reports from Idrees Ali, David Brunnstrom and Eric Beech; Edited by James Dalgleish
