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WASHINGTON – Unable to charge Mexico or Congress for its promised border wall, President Donald Trump is about to deny his first and most important campaign promise.
The House is expected to vote on Wednesday a draft law on temporary public spending that does not provide a penny for the wall – and forbids the Department of Homeland Security to create one. The Senate has already passed Bill 85-7 and Trump will have until Sunday to sign it to prevent most federal government agencies from closing at midnight.
"What part of 'no wall' do you have trouble understanding?" Said Rick Wilson, a Republican consultant and Trump critic since the start of his presidential candidacy in 2015. "It should not surprise anyone that Trump lied to this subject. He lies about everything. There would never be a wall.
Mark Krikorian, director of the Center for Immigration Studies who wants to restrict immigration to the United States, said the dilemma that Trump faces is his own fault for having made such a big problem of need rather than "bad luck". better border enforcement.
"At some point, people will say: Okay, where is the wall?
With the critical congressional elections, which take place just six weeks later, some Trump allies fear that his strongest supporters will stay home by disgusting the wall issue. "He's going to have to do something before the elections," said Sam Nunberg of Citizens of the American Republic, a group created by former White House advisor Steve Bannon.
For months, Bannon advocated a government shutdown over lack of funding for the walls to boost Trump's electoral base. Nunberg suggested that any executive order should cause the administration to do something to move it forward. "He must have a deliverable on it," he said.
His base literally believed that a bucket of dung was a bucket of ice when he told them that was the case. He will make his rallies and claim that the wall is already half built, and it is 400 feet high. And people will cheer and scream.
Rick Wilson, Republican Political Consultant
White House deputy spokesman Hogan Gidley criticized the Democrats on Tuesday for their opposition to the wall: "Democrats do not want to spend a single penny to secure the border, build a wall or take other measures of security.
But Trump's White House did not explain why Trump failed to convince the Republican-run congressional houses to include money to build a wall along the southern border. Trump promised the wall in his bid announcement speech and said he would force Mexico to pay for it. He repeated both promises hundreds of times during his campaign.
As president, Trump has taken several positions on signing another spending bill that does not include wall money. In March, just before signing a $ 1.3 trillion package, Trump criticized the omission of funding at the Republican-led Congress.
He tweeted that one of the reasons is that he was considering a veto on this funding measure because "the FRONTIER WALL, which National Defense desperately needs, is not fully funded ".
He posted this message just hours before signing the bill, anyway.
He explained that he was doing it because of all the money allocated to the army and then said that his wall was also receiving funding. "We have $ 1.6 billion for the wall," he said. "We will start work literally on Monday".
This statement, however, was false. While there was $ 1.57 billion for border security "procurement, construction and upgrades", 98% could not be used to build structures that were not already in use by 2017. Only $ 38 million has been reserved for planning and design – but no construction.
Since then, at his campaign rallies, he has sworn repeatedly to close the government if Congress did not give him money from the wall. "We are about to get really mean on the wall. We are getting it or we are shutting down the government, "he said in August in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania.
But earlier this month, Trump began reporting that he would follow the advice of GOP congressional leaders who desperately want to avoid a government shutdown before the election. They told him to wait in December to fight for his wall, because he would then have more weight, Trump said.
"We will do it right after the elections, hopefully, it will be easy because we have more Republicans, not less," he told Fox News just before the September 6 rally in Billings, Montana. .
"I have no idea of the logic," Krikorian said, arguing that the opposite political dynamic will probably be true: Democrats and Republicans who oppose the construction of a wall will carry much more weight than before, especially if Democrats take over the House in November and are only a few weeks away from formal scrutiny at the new congressional session in January.
"What will he do in December if he does not have his funding on the wall?" Asked Krikorian. "What will he do, close the government?" I'm not sure what the thought is. "
The details of the spending legislation that Congress is currently working on will likely further diminish Trump's leverage. Agencies such as Defense, Health and Social Services and Veterans Affairs will be funded until October 2019. Only one-third of the government would close if Trump refused to sign a new spending bill by December 7 – but this third would include DHS, which is responsible for border security. This would have the effect of harming border patrol officers, immigration and customs officials, and other people Trump often claims to support.
"Are the Democrats really going to the cellar because of that? I do not think so, "said Krikorian.
The whole wall was a shtick. As long as they applauded him, he would continue to repeat it. It's just a part of concert programming.
Rick Tyler, Republican Political Consultant
The question of whether and how much Trump's failure on the wall will not matter in the coming years remains a topic of debate among Republicans.
While Bannon argued that earning money for the wall is essential for Republicans to have a chance to keep the house – "The wall is not just totemic. The wall is absolutely central to his program, "he told CNN in June. Others think that even his hardcore base has never believed that Trump would build one.
Rick Tyler, who worked for the 2016 Texas Senator Ted Cruz's presidential campaign, said Trump's promise to build a wall and charge Mexico was simply something he invented for his rallying speeches. "The whole wall was a blow," he said, likening Trump's protests to professional wrestling shows where the audience is present on every stage. "As long as they applauded him, he would continue to repeat it. It's just a part of the concert lineup.
Frank Luntz, a GOP consultant, said he doubted that most of Trump's strongest supporters even learn he did not get money in the spending bill. The fight over Trump's Supreme Court candidate, Brett Kavanaugh, "what's happening in China and a host of other issues will prevail," he said.
Wilson, who recently published a book on Trump, said the president's most loyal followers ignore sources of information that do not present him in a flattering light. "His base would be literally convinced that a bucket of dung was a bucket of ice if he told him," he said. "He'll do his rallies and pretend that the wall is already half-built, and it's 400 feet high. And people will applaud.
Krikorian, however, does not believe that Trump can escape forever by promising a wall, but never delivering. "The president spoke in a box," he said. "You can not continue to make threats and not follow."
This story has been updated with comments from the White House.
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