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Four days from the end, Trump is pushing the strategy on which he has effectively bet his presidency – a refusal to broaden his coalition and incessant appeals to his base – in his biggest trial so far. Yet his approach risks alienating more moderate voters in tight races in the House.
In an example of what he played alongside his most loyal supporters, Trump launched a new attack on the 14th amendment, which ensures that even children born on the ground of undocumented immigrants in the United States are US citizens, at a rally on Thursday night in Missouri. The President doubted that he had the power to waive the provision by decree.
And one day after unveiling the most racist national political advertisement of his generation, Trump promised tough asylum restrictions and focused on consolidating the GOP's power during a trip to Missouri to support one of his protégés, Josh Hawley, well placed to reverse the situation. Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill.
The president even said that US troops that he planned to send to the border to deal with what he claims to be a national crisis could shatter weapons to members of the United States. 39, a group of migrants – currently hundreds of miles away in Mexico – they were throwing stones at the troops.
"Democrats want open borders and want to invite caravan after caravan to our country," said Trump to the euphoric and inflamed crowd, who ignited his fiery rhetoric about immigration and chanted "Build this wall! Build this wall " in a display of the power of the issue among the president's base.
The exceptionally distinct races for both Houses of Congress this year mean that a scorched earth message that works well in Senate races in the Trump country could have the opposite effect in competitions in the House in a more moderate territory.
But in the final days of the campaign, the president intensified his rhetorical attacks against undocumented immigrants and the group of itinerant migrants, ravishing grassroots voters, but infuriating Republicans in underprivileged neighborhoods and GOP strategists worried about bedroom.
This, and a travel schedule that appears to be primarily aimed at attracting Senate candidates to the Red State and overthrowing vulnerable Democrats, suggests that the President can read the polls as well as anyone else.
Most experts are moving away from forecasts after Trump's shocking victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016. But a majority of models suggest that the most likely outcome is that Democrats take the House and Republicans retain control of Senate or even increase their majority of a couple. of seats.
Republicans will hold 52 seats – and retain the majority – in the Senate, while Democrats will hold only 48, according to Enten 's analysis. Something between Republicans holding 48 seats and 56 seats is within the margin of error.
Use presidential symbolism to sell a campaign message
Trump has been launching fierce campaign attacks against immigration for days.
But on Thursday, he chose the ornate surroundings of the Roosevelt Hall of the White House, often the site of solemn announcements, for what was touted as a major political announcement in the asylum area.
This was the last indication that Trump 's improvisations and political motives often had a hard time getting his political team to understand. The same thing happened when the president suddenly pledged to unveil a tax break for the middle class over the next few weeks. – Even if Congress, which has the power of the stock market – was not in session at that time.
The White House has since announced that tax cuts would not continue until January at the earliest.
In the place of a major new policy proposal on asylum, the president exacerbated the demagoguery, suggesting that US troops could actually fire members of a group of migrants they reached the border.
"They want to throw stones at our army, our army is defending itself," said Trump. "When they throw stones as they did to the Mexican army and police, I consider it a rifle," he said, citing an unlikely scenario and a disproportionate force.
His warning alarmed former Republican Senator Chuck Hagel, who was the Obama administration's defense secretary.
"My reaction … is a reaction of disgust.This is a gratuitous incitement to unnecessary violence.It is a distraction, it is a distortion, it is a political goal of High ranking to use our army this way, "said Hagel to Jake Tapper, CNN.
"It's not in my life that I've heard this kind of words from a president of the United States."
Trump also said the army was building tent cities for arrested migrants, while military officials said no construction of this type was underway. He also falsely claimed that his administration had started building its famous border wall, relying on a federal government project to replace a fence section with a wall.
An inconvenient message Republicans in a close battle at home
The incessant and incendiary attention of the president in the matter of immigration upset some of his Republican compatriots, who have in mind the fate of the House.
Representative Ryan Costello, a moderate from Pennsylvania who is retiring after the elections, warned that Trump's message could be the last straw for members in danger of the GOP House.
"I think closing the doors of sadness and scare people in the face of immigration, this is not going to bring home undecided voters in the districts of influence," said Costello to Lauren Fox, from CNN.
"I can not imagine that someone in a neighborhood wants the final argument to be immigration," Costello said. "Your local message is competing with what the president is talking about."
New unemployment statistics are expected to boost Trump on Friday with the final release of Bureau of Labor Statistics data before the elections.
But the president made a clear decision on the most cost-effective way to end his campaign – and chose to be true to the populist and politically incorrect personality that earned him the White House.
It is possible that the House is already out of reach, given its approval rate in the mid-1940s, the fact that many of the GOP's vulnerable legislators present themselves in Clinton-winning districts, and historical evidence. suggest that first term presidents are still struggling to run in mid-term elections.
A new CNN poll suggests that at least in Trump's country, his instinct for what his constituents want is clever.
Among voters in the Republican Senate in Florida, immigration is now a significant issue for 33 percent of voters, up from 22 percent in mid-October, before it tackles its mid-term closing arguments.
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