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President Trump arrives at a campaign rally in Mesa, Arizona on Friday. He has organized events throughout the country during the last weeks of the mid-term campaign, but most of his stops have been held in states he won in 2016.
Carolyn Kaster / AP
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Carolyn Kaster / AP
President Trump arrives at a campaign rally in Mesa, Arizona on Friday. He has organized events throughout the country during the last weeks of the mid-term campaign, but most of his stops have been held in states he won in 2016.
Carolyn Kaster / AP
As President Trump arrived at the grand opening at a recent rally, his supporters were piling up in the Kansas expocentre, shouting with his 2016 advertising slogan. Voices bounced off the walls by saying "we will make a great America again" as the Rolling Stones inflated in the sound system.
Donald Trump – now president and no longer on the ballot – is once again on tour, making his biggest hits in the hangars of the fairs and airports and imploring his supporters to vote for someone 's d & # 39; other than himself.
Like most of this year's campaign stops, the Topeka Rally, at Kan., Was in a state won by Trump in 2016. The two candidates that he has ridden on stage, the candidate for governor Kris Kobach and Congressional candidate Steve Watkins are among the top ranked toss-ups by Cook's political report.
But the Kansas congressman facing an even tougher race, Republican Representative Kevin Yoder, whose district is labeled "democratic," was not there. His campaign evoked a scheduling conflict for missing the rally. His district of Kansas City was only one hour away from the car rally, but Republican strategists believe his race might already be lost due to anti-Trump sentiment in the city and surrounding suburbs and A violent reaction against Republicans all over the state.
You do not see the graph above? Click here: Trump campaigns in an essentially friendly territory
The control of the House of Representatives could be decided in the suburbs of the suburbs outside the main Democratic bastions. But an NPR analysis revealed that Trump was largely avoiding these areas for his gatherings. Of the 24 rallies he organized or announced for the general elections, only three took place in suburban districts.
"He does not go to safe places to win, he does not go to safe places," said White House policy director Bill Stepien in an interview with NPR. "It's a moment in the campaign where there is no time to lose or send the president to a place where the result is already decided, so it's in competitive places, to win and win. it can make a real difference. "
On Monday, Trump will hold a rally with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in Houston, a Democratic fortress surrounded by a handful of competitive districts. A source familiar with the White House's political strategy said that NPR Houston had been chosen because Cruz's team determined that Trump would be the most useful and that there are Republican candidates in Congress who could also enjoy a boost.
But the Houston Chronicle reports that Rep. John Culberson, whose district is close to the rally, will not be present. Instead, he will attend a previously scheduled flood control meeting. Her district went to Hillary Clinton in 2016, and Cook credits her with great success.
"If he came to a suburb, the most vulnerable Republicans would probably be busy washing their hair," Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson told the president.
The goal of Trump is to campaign more aggressively before this fall's midterm elections than all his recent predecessors. He focuses his efforts in areas where, in 2016, he surpassed previous Republican candidates, like Erie, Pennsylvania, where he campaigned last week. Stepien explains that these areas "are Trump-ism bastions, which are frankly more Trump than Republican".
As for the states he's visiting, Trump's travel program consistently prioritizes those where Republicans are dominant, as well as battlefield states that will be key to deciding the 2020 presidential election. Home and Senate competitions are held in high-density Democratic states like New York, New Jersey and California, but Trump does not hold large rallies there. A Republican involved in Senate races across the country suggested to NPR that Trump's travel schedule is at least partially influenced by 2020 electoral considerations.
He is campaigning for a mix of candidates in the House, Senate and Governor, who, as Stepien says, "echo the President's message and the political successes of the past two years – more jobs , better paying jobs, safer and safer borders – most boldly, very proudly. "In other words, those who embrace Trump are far more likely to be embraced by him and are more likely to benefit from a stop of the presidential campaign anyway.
Turbulent rallies are a big part of the Trump experience. But the people attending these rallies are not necessarily Republicans or mid-term voters. According to Stepien, no less than 30% of those present at these gatherings voted for the first time in 2016 or vote in general only during the presidential years. That's why Trump says that even if he does not appear on the ballot, his policy is respected. This is a somewhat unusual strategy for a president with an underwater approval rating before the first mid-term elections of his presidency.
Trump often says that he intends to beat the story, and if he does, it will involve increasing the Republicans' turnout.
Stepien said Trump's rallies "provide real opportunities for large crowds" to introduce Trump fans to Republican candidates on the ballot in November.
Don Gonyea, of NPR, who reported on several Trump rallies this year, often finds participants who have no idea who their congressional representative is. So, such introductions are apparently necessary.
Republican pollster Robert Blizzard, who participated in a congressional special election in Ohio in August, where Trump staged a rally on the eve of the vote, said he saw the president boost the Republican base's enthusiasm. And in places where Trump goes, Blizzard does not see much risk of turning against him.
Democratic enthusiasm is at its height and complacency by Republicans is a major concern, according to Blizzard.
"I mean, Democratic voters on a scale of 1 to 10 are already at 13," he said.
"Bringing the president to some of these places to get the troops moving and excite them can only be an advantage," Blizzard said. "At that moment, the Republicans will have all the negatives associated with the president, we would certainly also want to tackle the positives."
Does the president help more than it hurts? This is a debate conducted at each mid-term. Ferguson, the Democratic strategist, bet that it hurts, at least in the districts where the Republicans in place are facing headwinds generated by Trump.
"When he goes to a district, he recalls that congressional Republicans have become his men-yes," Ferguson said. "And voters want a check and a scale, not a servant."
Trump, however, said this week that if Republicans lose the House, he assumes no responsibility because he is campaigning so forcefully.
Jessica Taylor and Naomi Shah contributed to this report.
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