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Michael Gruber / Getty Images; Olivier Douliery-Pool / Getty Images; Samantha Lee / Business Insider- President Donald Trump has outraged and challenged the institution's experts on Iran, but his policy is seriously damaging Iran without causing a tangible backtracking in the United States.
- Former President Barack Obama and his senior officials have warned against many specific steps taken by Trump, but none of their dire predictions have come true.
- The world has overwhelmingly chosen the United States over Iran, under pressure from the Trump administration's sanctions.
- Iran remains in the nuclear deal and even its long-standing customers are abandoning it.
President Donald Trump has, almost every turn, challenged Iran's political experts to adopt a very aggressive stance against Tehran.
Despite this, Trump still has to suffer only one tangible consequence, or one of the nightmare scenarios that former President Barack Obama has warned.
Under Trump, the United States withdrew from the Iran deal, which Obama officials have warned could send the country sprint to a nuclear weapon. Iran remains in compliance with the agreement today.
The Trump White House will punish Iranian oil exports in November, and despite rising oil price warnings or European firms choosing Tehran to Washington, oil prices are stable and India, its customer of long time.
Despite Iran's pain in the face of Trump's sanctions, the experts contacted by Business Insider expect it to remain in the deal. They said the country has very few economic lines of life and that publicly violating the agreement to go nuclear could stifle the remaining embers.
The US military in Syria has repeatedly and brutally beaten forces related to Iran and Iran when they were challenged.
Under Obama, the United States tried to give Iran a broad presence in Syria as it worked behind the scenes to bring the Iran deal to a successful conclusion. In the Strait of Ormuz, a key waterway outside of Iran, Iranian ships frequently harassed and threatened US Navy vessels. Under Trump, Iran stopped these provocations.
"The president is doing the opposite of what the experts said, and it seems like it works," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research at The New York Times.
Iran is struggling and the United States is going well
Since Trump came to power, Iran has gone through a series of economic and military setbacks.
While Iran remains in the deal that sought to ease the burden of sanctions on its oil exports, it has lost tremendously as international companies overwhelmingly choose not to provoke Trump's anger by buying Iranian oil.
The Iranian army, mostly in the hands of Israel, has been repeatedly and fiercely targeted by air strikes, to which it has offered limited answers. While the United States and much of the world are dreading the prospect of a nuclear Iran, Israel has made it clear that it will carry out direct and rapid military action to destroy the nuclear capabilities of regional rivals like Iran.
It can be argued that the United States has damaged their international reputation and their relations with European partners, but it is unclear whether this has caused tangible damage to US companies.
Arms control experts have widely argued that the withdrawal of the Iran deal would show North Korea that diplomacy with the United States is useless, but the relationship between Trump and Kim Jong Un seems almost entirely based on good faith mutual.
Trump breaks all the rules of Obama and comes first
Obama's Secretary of State, John Kerry, spent the years leading up to the Iran deal to travel to Europe to ask banks to do business with Iran, a country the United States refers to as a sponsor of terror.
When Trump took office, Kerry continued her work to help Iranian companies in private meetings with officials from the country.
Kerry and Obama have clearly sought to integrate Iran into the global economy as a key element of their foreign policy achievements, and that does not seem to have worked.
Of course, Trump benefits from the implementation of the agreement with Iran, which limits the ability of Iran to slash or throw a bomb. The bad business climate, human rights record and internal conflicts in Iran have also scared away companies that, in principle, wanted to negotiate with Tehran, thus easing Trump's crackdown.
Obama officials have often argued that the The United States could not exert unilateral pressure on Iranbut under Trump, the rial jumped.
Obama officials have argued that the nuclear deal aimed to solve the narrow problem of nuclear proliferation without even getting US detainees to release or curb Iran's regional military ambitions. and open threats to Israel.
But under Trump, the United States has addressed all their grievances to Iran, ranging from the financing of terrorism to the escalation of fighting in Syria, through missile control and even oppressing its own people.
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