Trump, Venezuela and the prospect of a coup d'etat

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In April 2002, Venezuelan President of the time, Hugo Chávez, was briefly deposed during a coup attempt by mutinous army officers. But within 48 hours, Chávez returned to power with the help of loyalist generals and masses of supporters who marched through the streets for his defense.

It later became apparent that the CIA was aware of the coup plot, despite the virulent denials of the George W. Bush administration at the time. There were documented links between Washington and the anti-government figures involved in the failed eviction. The spectrum of Yankee imperialism is looming again.

Chávez, a fiery demagogue, launched these revelations, linking his own ordeal to a wider American legacy of dirty wars, electoral interference, and military intervention. "Having such a government in the United States is a threat to the world," he said.

Sixteen years later, it is reasonable to say that the Chávez government bequeathed to Venezuela is a threat to the world. Years of mismanagement and clientelism have crowded out the Venezuelan economy, causing staggering hyperinflation and devastating food and drug shortages. A humanitarian catastrophe in the hemisphere is now weighing on Venezuela's neighbors, who are struggling to cope with the massive influx of refugees fleeing hunger and depredation.

For more than a year, analysts have suggested that Chávez's successor, Nicolás Maduro, could be vulnerable to a coup d'etat. Maduro and his allies resisted several obscure attacks by renegade soldiers, including an assassination attempt with an explosive drone at a military parade last month. But rather than losing control of power, Maduro is only tightening it, purging the army of potential threats and winning reelection in votes widely considered fraudulent by the international community.

Meanwhile, he continues to blame outside actors – mainly the United States – for his country's problems. And this weekend, he had even more fuel for his paranoia.

According to my colleagues, Trump administration officials have met several times with Venezuelan military officers who claimed to be opponents of the conspiracy. Requests for secret help from Venezuelans were eventually rejected, not least because the Americans were not convinced by their requests.

"We had very little confidence in the ability of these people to do anything, no idea who they were and how much they had not already exposed," said one manager to my colleagues. by the New York Times, was more than enough for the Maduro government.

"We denounce in front of the world the plans of intervention of the United States and the aid to the military conspirators against Venezuela" tweeted Jorge ArreazaMinister of Foreign Affairs of Venezuela.

The White House is rushed to control speculation that it intervenes. In a statement, National Security Council spokesman Garrett Marquis said "the US government hears the concerns of Venezuelans of all walks of life – members of the ruling party, security services, elements of the civil society citizens forced by the regime to flee abroad. "

The statement added: "United States political preference for a peaceful and orderly return to democracy in Venezuela remains unchanged.

Of course, such a return is nowhere in sight. President Trump, on the other hand, played the role of the American hegemon rather well. His administration included Venezuela among the predominantly Muslim-majority countries targeted by Trump's travel ban, closing the door to a desperate nation. He extolled the "military option" for Venezuela – a rhetoric that sounded the sirens on a continent too familiar with American interventions. And reports indicate that Trump has issued the possibility of an invasion not only to his leading advisers, but also to leaders in other Latin American countries.

But even if such an adventure were now underway, the new revelations suggest that Washington's allies on the ground would be terribly out of their reach. "The main demand of the military conspirators was encrypted radios, which they planned to use to communicate with each other in order to capture Maduro and his lieutenants," the Times noted. "But the United States has never granted this request and after several meetings, the Venezuelans have been frustrated.Maduro's government has since jailed dozens of conspirators, although many remain at large."

In the era of smartphones and encrypted applications, the demand for radios seemed absurd to other Venezuelan observers. "It's just another reminder that men at the top of the army – our alleged saviors – are not only very, very criminal: they are also terribly stupid," writes Francisco Toro of the Caracas Chronicles blog. "A plot that relies on people operating at this level of sophistication will fail. Which, of course, the Americans saw right away. "

"It makes no sense to support a military coup in Latin America. They always end badly, but it's worth listening to these people, "said Adam Isacson of the Washington office on Latin America at The Post. "What is their level of discontent? Do they have broad support among the population or are they just renegades? Do they have an honest plan to start the election? The army is a black box.

The irony of the moment is that Trump himself takes a dark path even as his administration wonders how to deal with a destructive and destabilizing regime in Venezuela. Trump fumed about the threats to his rule posed, in part, by an anonymous insider who wrote an astonishing review of how Trump helps protect the country from the president's bad instincts.

"He is remarkable for his lack of appreciation of democratic values ​​and institutions. And I think that's where some of the biggest damage is caused. " Senator Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) Told Manu Raju last week. "Left to itself, our country would look a bit like Venezuela."

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