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Donald Trump's candidacy was "the empty bottle of gin" voters had "chosen to throw out of the window," wrote David Gelernter in an editorial published in October 2016 in The Wall Street Journal. As Brazilians go to the polls on October 7 to elect a new president, they throw their own empty bottle, perhaps one that once contained the mighty sugar distillate called Cachaca.
The Trumplike candidate is Jair Bolsonaro, of the Social Liberal Party, a former captain of the military, aged 63 and married three times. Although he has been at the Congress of Brazil since 1990, he is widely perceived as a stranger and carries his political mistake as a badge of honor. He is also leading the polls, to the dismay of "experts" in places like New York and London.
Mr. Gelernter's America was more than simply frustrated by an anemic economy. President Obama and Hillary Clinton had "emasculated" voters, he wrote. Their rebellion was directed against progressive snobs who belittled conservatives and their traditional values.
However, the Trump base alone could not have elected the president. It took voters like Mr. Gelernter, whose Yale computer science profile places him squarely in the "elite" category to achieve unanticipated victory. Not recognizing any admiration for the real estate developer, Mr. Gelernter said he would vote for him "with concern." Why? Because the alternative was too awful to contemplate.
With 28% support, according to a Datafolha survey released Friday, Bolsonaro's victory is far from certain. The electoral rules require that a candidate obtain 50% of the votes, plus one of the votes validly cast, in the first round. If necessary, a second round will take place on October 28th.
In a second round, Bolsonaro is likely to face Fernando Haddad, former mayor of São Paulo. Mr. Haddad was chosen as a candidate of the Left Workers Party, or PT, after former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, found guilty of corruption, was prevented from running. Haddad is in second place with 22% of the vote, according to Datafolha.
In the second round, Datafolha has Mr. Haddad with 45% and Mr. Bolsonaro with 38%. The PT machine has a powerful ground game and a masterful use of media. But Mr Bolsonaro could still surprise, which is why an assassin was stabbed in early September.
People are voting their way and, as the economy is recovering from a nearly three-year recession, the central bank is forecasting growth of just 1.4% this year and only 2.4% next year . The PT tried to blame President Michel Temer of the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party, who was the vice president of PT President Dilma Rousseff, who took over after his dismissal in 2016. But many Brazilians are not buying. not that. They know that 13 years of PT governance have made a mess.
Mr. Bolsonaro's economy is fragile. He moderated his long-standing views as an economic nationalist, but on specific issues – from privatization to protectionism – it was hard to pin down. The best hypothesis is that his government would strive to strengthen fiscal restraint and deregulation.
Mr. Bolsanaro is one of the few members of Congress not to be tainted by the corruption scandals of recent years. Last week, he was accused of hiding assets from the tax authorities. Even if this is true, it is nothing compared to the arrogance of the PT.
PT governments have specialized in corruption and corruption. The federal investigation known as Operation Carwash discovered a systemic corruption within the Brazilian development bank and the state oil company.
Petrobras
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Mr. da Silva, caught in the act of corruption, continues to believe that he should be above the law.
Putting the PT in power, where it is more than likely that it is trying to bend the judicial system to its ideology on the left, is a risk that many Brazilians say they do not want to take.
Mr. Bolsonaro has the support of evangelical Christians and farmers. He is doing better than Mr. Haddad among middle-income voters and especially among university graduates, who fear a return of the corrupt PT.
He speaks fiercely about security and wants to restore the state's presence in places overrun by organized crime. He categorically opposes the redistribution of PT lands that favored special interest groups. His critics call him racist, but trampling property rights is not a way to raise the standard of living.
Mr. Bolsonaro supports agricultural development, while the PT treats farmers as an environmental threat. He also defends traditional views on sexuality, challenging the use of public schools to teach otherwise. He is described as homophobic by his detractors, but his objections have been well received in socially conservative Brazil.
Mr. Bolsonaro's biggest call is that he speaks vigorously against the PT. In a country where growing hopes have been wiped out by the carelessness and the right of the PT, this message is selling.
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