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(AP Photo / Carolyn Kaster)
MORNING PRUNE:
With the exception of the large and beautiful wall that is already built on the southern border ( in the spirit of President Trump, anyway), The problem that strikes most directly in the most visceral tensions of Trumpism is its escalation of the trade war with China. Given the frequency with which he is worried about his "harshness" towards China before the venerable gathering crowds, it is hard to see how he will back down, no matter what the consequences.
Figures provided by the Brookings Institution suggest that consequences will have more direct impact on the counties that voted for Trump. Indeed, the figures show that China has taken drastic action to sharpen its targeting of Trump counties in the latest round of retaliatory tariffs that it has just announced.
This morning, Politico reports the shades leading to Trump. commercial war. Trump has been criticizing for decades about other countries "tearing" the US off the trade. Now that hostilities are intensifying, Politico notes that Trump has "no clear exit strategy and no explicit plan to negotiate new road rules with China, leaving the global trading community and financial markets in l & # 39; uncertainty ". But Loyalists say that he plays long game and will not bow. As Stephen K. Bannon puts it, Trump "preached a confrontation with China for 30 years," which makes it a "big moment" that pits "Trump on Wall Street."
Despite this false populist stance on Trump's "Wall Street" targeting, Trump's counties are the most likely to take a hit. The Brookings Institution, which keeps detailed county data on employment by industry, examined all counties that have jobs in the industries targeted by China and divided them by counties that voted for Trump and Hillary Clinton. Brookings provided me with this table showing the results:
Nearly two-thirds of the jobs in industries targeted by Chinese tariffs – a total of more than 1 million jobs – are found in more than 2 100 counties who voted for Trump. In contrast, just over a third of jobs in China's targeted industries – just over half a million – are in counties that voted for Clinton. This does not mean that these jobs will be permanently lost; it means that they are in industries that are caught up in Trump's trade war, which makes them vulnerable, depending on what happens.
China's retaliatory tariffs mainly target US exports of agricultural and food products such as soybeans, seafood grains, meats, fruits and nuts and dairy products, as well as intermediate goods and transportation equipment, including vehicles.
Mark Muro, a Brookings researcher who compiled this data, tells me that the jobs covered by Chinese tariffs include more than 200,000 in the processing of poultry; nearly 140,000 in other animal slaughterings; more than 120,000 in automobile manufacturing; and tens of thousands each in industries involving the manufacture of light trucks, commercial vehicles and construction machinery, among others. As the maps compiled by The Post show, many of these industries are concentrated in the midwestern Midwest and the South
The rub here, Muro tells me, is that China's new retaliatory tariffs are going more far than the previous ones. threatened list did. "These fares will land in very specific locations," Muro said. "It seems calculated to have this effect.In its final iteration, the list became much more rural and agricultural and red."
It is sometimes said that this trade war could have a negligible effect on the US economy in his outfit. But Muro points out that by targeting industries that are particularly important in their geographic areas, fares could have a disproportionate impact on concentrated localities. "These counties rely heavily on these industries," says Muro. "Some places could be hit hard enough." Red places, to be precise.
As Paul Krugman points out, Trump's commercial escalation is based on delusional ideas: the idea that trade wars are easy to "win" or that the country with the biggest trade surplus has gotten a kind of conquering status; the refusal to understand that disrupting complex international supply chains is hurting people on all sides, including American businesses and workers; the lie that the United States is being "scammed" by extremely high tariffs. We do not know where Trump's trade war will go. But given the tangle of Trump's megalomania and the simplistic and furious vision that he has nurtured of international trade for decades, anyone would want to bet that Trump will find a way to To get out anytime soon?
* CONSERVATIVES ABC News reported that the Conservatives are preparing a massive advertising campaign supporting Trump's candidate for the Supreme Court, with advertisements running in Indiana, North Dakota, West Virginia and the United States. Alabama:
these states have something in common: competitive senatorial races with seated Democrats defending their seats in the states that the president wore. These "red state" democrats for reelection could swing the result if they support the candidate. They will continue to face strong political pressure to vote for choice.
They will also face intense pressure from the Democratic base, as it is likely that they will growl, they will support a candidate ] Roe v. Wade and obamacare intestine.
* TWO SCOTUS PICKS WHO COMMIT McCONNELL: The New York Times reports that Mitch McConnell expressed quiet reservations about Trump picking either Brett Kavanaugh or Amy Coney Barrett: [19659017] The Judge Kavanaugh contended that President Bill Clinton could be accused of lying to his staff and misleading the public, a broad definition of the obstruction of justice that would be detrimental to Mr. Trump if it were to happen. 39, applied to the Russian investigation. […] Judge Barrett, a former law clerk of Judge Antonin Scalia, has been defended by conservative Christian leaders, but McConnell fears that it may cause the defection of two moderate key Republicans in the Senate.
This last element suggests Republican unity (which will be necessary to pass the Trump candidate if all Dems vote no) can not be guaranteed after all.
* DEMS WILL BE PRESSING COLLINS AND MURKOWSKI: The Post reports on the thought of the Democrats on how to stop Trump's choice:
The Democrats hope to put pressure on Senator Susan Collins ( R-Maine) and Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) to protect Roe . If no senator breaks, Democrats still believe that they can reduce public support for the candidate by focusing on the threats to abortion rights, gay rights, affordable care. Act and environmental regulations – even in Indiana, North Dakota and West Virginia. Keeping the United Democrats is an essential way to draw attention to Collins and Murkowski, by making a vote for someone who would overthrow Roe more uncomfortable for them.
* TRUMP'S CHOICE WILL BE DEEPLY: CNN's Stephen Collinson stresses that the impact of this choice will go well beyond Roe v. Wade and Obamacare:
Trump's choice will cement a 5-4 majority in the field for conservatives The new justice could influence cases that define the role of religion in public life, determine the scope of the rights of weapons , endorse a more restrictive interpretation of civil rights legislation, and ease regulatory constraints for large corporations.
Yes, we have not even begun to glimpse the extent of the damage that the Trump presidency will do
* INSIDE TRUMP AND SCOTUS: The Post also explains why Trump could pass Kavanaugh, who worked in George W. Bush's White House:
Trump privately and repeatedly asked if Kavanaugh's work for the Bush family – a family whose members have deeply criticized the president and are pil lars of the republican establishment – could tarnish his mark or pose a problem to his main supporters. … A person close to Trump said that the "Bush factor" could be the main reason for Kavanaugh's loss.
Because being associated with people who deeply criticize Trump is obviously disqualifying in a candidate for such an important and influential position
* KEEPING AN EYE ON THE MEETING OF THE TEXAS SENATE: Politico makes a deep plunge into Beta O 'campaign Rourke to topple Senator Ted Cruz:
Texas is already one of the most racially diverse states in the country, and its demographics are changing rapidly. Only 31% of Texans over 65 are non-white, while more than two-thirds of Texans under 19 are non-white, like the majority of Texans aged 20-39. These changes are driven by a growing Hispanic population, which tends to vote democratically. In recent years, these trends have given the Democrats reason to hope that the state is about to become competitive.
Gradually …
* AND TRUMP'S WAR COULD HURRICAN AMERICAN EXPORTERS: The Wall Street Greg Ip stresses that Trump's trade war, by taxing imports, could also rob our partners commercial money to buy our exports, in addition to taxing these exports:
Although completely counterintuitive, the theory and evidence show that taxes on imports just like an export tax. Although Trump's tariffs have already proved their worth, soybean exporters face declining prices while Harley-Davidson will divert production of motorcycles destined for the European Union out of the States. -United. hit the exports of his South Carolina plant.
Who knew that trade policy could be so complicated?
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