Trump's immigration pressure lifts the Senate's GOP

President TrumpDonald John TrumpCurbelo explains why he forgave a man who had tweeted a death threat Obama accuses Trump of being a "political coup" in border policy The voter registration in California reaches a peak without previous until mid-termImmigration's attention to immigration has reduced the chances of Republicans building a majority in the Senate, even if it has shaken the GOP legislators in the House.

Republican candidates in the Senate of Indiana, Missouri, Montana and North Dakota have all seen their fortunes increase in recent weeks as Trump discusses immigration and carries out a multitude of events. Electoral appearances, including Indianapolis Friday night.

Immigration is not the only reason for the increased confidence of the Senate GOP in recent weeks. The party also believes that its Senate candidates have been helped by the Supreme Court's fight for justice Brett KavanaughBrett Michael KavanaughDiscount of elections: four days | Advance polls exceed 2014 figures in many states | Vulnerable dems throw their party under the bus | Fights to determine control of the Senate | 10 GOP House seats most likely to tip | Obama is campaigning to preserve his legacy A voter's guide for the 100 million people who do not plan to vote for Kavanaugh to override the normal Supreme Court process for security reasons MOREThe confirmation.

But it is undeniable that the GOP candidates in the red states won by Trump in 2016 are on the rise while this one focuses on what he says is an imminent danger of illegal immigration.

What makes the increase all the more remarkable is that it happens when GOP strategists fear that the majority in the House will be lost.

Ford O'Connell, one of these strategists, predicted that the Democrats would get 30 seats in the House, seven more than the 23 Democrats needed to win the majority, but that Republicans will retain control of the Senate.

"The Republicans will keep the Senate. The only question that arises is whether they realize gains or they are flat, "he said.

Mr. O. Connell said that Republican Senate candidates such as Josh Hawley in Missouri, Mike Braun in Indiana, Matt Rosendale in Montana and Patrick Morrisey in West Virginia had the wind in the sails.

Trump's vow to end the caravan of illegal immigrants heading to the US border from Central America sparked a keen interest in Conservative voters on these Senate battlefields, all of whom were more than two figures.

The president said this week that he could send 15,000 troops to the border and warned that soldiers could shoot migrants who throw stones – although he backed away later and announced that They would be stopped instead.

"When we look at the polls, immigration is the problem that Republicans are most concerned about and it's also the issue that best matches the turnout," O'Connell said.

But what's good for Republican candidates in Montana and Missouri in the state could end up hurting moderate Republican candidates among college-educated voters in the suburban districts of Swing House.

"I do not think it's going to work so well for Carlos CurbeloCarlos Luis CurbeloCurbelo explains why he forgave a man who had tweeted the death threat that GOP had told the public. Trump held a talk about mid-term immigration near MORE in Florida, "O'Connell said of the Republican representative for the second term, which represents a 70% Latino district on the outskirts of Miami. Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonFBI intercepts another suspicious package sent to donor Steyer, countdown to elections: four days | Advance polls exceed 2014 figures in many states | Vulnerable dems throw their party under the bus | Fights to determine control of the Senate | 10 GOP House seats most likely to tip | Obama is campaigning to preserve his legacy The Hill's 12:30 Report – Trump is touting Iran's sanctions with the same "Game of Thrones". | 4 days mid-term | Distance races are the key to the battle of the Senate | Good Jobs in October Report MORE gained by 16 points.

Democrats say Trump's rhetoric on immigration shocked college graduates from suburban colleges, especially women.

They believe the president's strategy is to sacrifice these districts and to strengthen the interests of Republican voters in more conservative areas in order to limit the loss in the House to 30 to 35 seats.

"It's in Hillary Clinton's districts and with women voters, especially school-educated women, that the situation is crushing terribly," said Celinda Lake, a Democratic investigator. "I think [Trump] tries to maintain the line with the blue-collar districts and the Senate races in the Republican states.

"What he's trying to do, is to draw a red line where he's going to sacrifice a suburban district to limit erosion and increase his margin in the Senate," she added. . "The situation is worsening more and more with the 15,000 soldiers."

Trump provoked an uproar this week when he tweeted an Internet video of Luis Bracamontes, a clandestine immigrant who killed two California police officers, saying in an audience room that he wanted to be able to kill more people. .

The video also seems to show a crowd of migrants demolishing barriers and doors, with the following text: "Who else would the Democrats let in?"

Mike Lux, a Democratic strategist who worked at the Clinton White House, said he found that internal polls showed Trump's rhetoric had stimulated younger voters, who turned out to be fewer in the mid-term elections – a block crucial for Democrats.

"I see evidence last week that this is prompting more Latinos and young Democrats to vote," he said, noting that this would help not only the moderate districts of the House, but also some battlefields in the country. Senate, where the number of candidates is high Hispanic voters.

"We see that many Latin American voters and young voters did not vote in 2014 and, in some cases, did not vote in 2016. Last week, during the advance poll, we recorded considerable gains compared to what we thought we could achieve, "he said.

"Everything that pushes young people to go out and vote is really useful for the Democrats," he added.

Charlie Cook, a political handicapper, said on MSNBC Thursday that there "would seem to be some back to the Democrats" and speculated that Trump's reaction to the Pittsburgh synagogue shootings could have influenced voters.

Republicans contend that the message of immigration is clearly winning with the conservative electorate, which could propel them to victory in Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Tennessee and West Virginia if they win a sufficient number of candidates.

"We could choose anywhere between two and five seats in the Senate. I think we will lose about 35 seats in the House, "said Jim McLaughlin, a Republican pollster.

"I think that a silent majority is watching the caravan and they want the president to oppose it," he said. "I saw in the focus groups that some of the people most opposed to [the caravan] Hispanics because those who have legally entered the country say, "I had to queue. I had to do things right.

"No one speaks better than Trump," he added.

This could explain why Republican candidates in the Senate in states with a high Hispanic population are doing better than expected.

Sen. Dean HellerDean Arthur Heller Countdown to Elections: Four Days | Advance polls exceed 2014 figures in many states | Vulnerable dems throw their party under the bus | Fights to determine control of the Senate | 10 GOP House seats most likely to tip | A GOP investigator claims that Republicans could break with Trump in Saudi Arabia The Hill report 12:30 – Trump is touting Iran's sanctions with the same "Game of Thrones". | 4 days mid-term | Distance races are the key to the battle of the Senate | Good Jobs in October Report MORE (R-Nev.), Who was considered the most vulnerable Senate speaker earlier in the electoral cycle, kept a leg up on the Democratic Republic. Jacky RosenJacklyn (Jacky) Sheryl RosenDiscount of elections: four days | Advance polls exceed 2014 figures in many states | Vulnerable dems throw their party under the bus | Fights to determine control of the Senate | 10 GOP House seats most likely to tip | Obama is campaigning to preserve his legacy Democrats in tough races are throwing their party under the bus Delayed races dominate the Senate battle MORE (Nev.) In the polls.

McLaughlin said the historical operators of House GOP such as Curbelo in Florida and Rep. Will HurdWilliam Ballard HurdElection Countdown: A week after mid-term, the House's battlefield expands Dems seek to extend the battle within the House a week before mid-day Vulnerable Republicans follow suit Advanced Trump on Immigration PLUS (R) Texas, which also represents a district close to 70% of Latino, can withstand a brutal reaction against Trump's rhetoric by having his own independent political brand.

This is the same strategy that Senate Democrats in the Red States use to differentiate themselves from Democratic leaders such as the Democratic Leader of the Senate. Charles SchumerCharles (Chuck) Ellis SchumerMoscSally accuses Arizona media of "protecting" opponent Dem, Sinema Scarborough, mourns GOP candidates by promising them protection against pre-existing living conditions: "They are all lying ". (N.Y.) and Democratic Leader of the House Nancy PelosiNancy Patricia Alesandro PelosiThe fight already engaged in the battles of leaders in the House Your ballot is on the ballot The Hill & # 39; s Morning Report – Presented by PhRMA – Congress may no longer be subject at the end of November MORE (California) in Washington.

But Democrats believe Trump is exaggerating his hand on immigration in a way that will backfire against GOP candidates, especially during competitive races in the House.

Lake pollster Lake admitted polls show that not all Latino voters are turned off by Trump's uncompromising immigration stance.

"Particularly Latino men who are born and raised here or have come here legally, there is some sympathy [to Trump’s message] but sympathy is eroding fast since he's gone so far, "she said.

Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist who worked on Sen. Bernie SandersBernard (Bernie) SandersWill the voters of Florida want socialism? Democrats, beware: we are too leaning on the left Democrats in difficult races throw their party under the bus MORE'S (I-Vt.) 2016 presidential campaign, said Trump's rhetoric hurts Republicans in suburban neighborhoods.

"In the suburbs where Republicans have a lot of trouble keeping voters, Republican women, who had participated in the last election, including the last – the president's speech is so exaggerated," he said. "When you have the commander-in-chief talking about American troops shooting at unarmed people, it's so discordant with the way people feel about problems."